Before the elections to Seimas, there is a change of parties in the leaderboard.

A month before the Seimas elections, a poll of residents conducted by Vilmorus on behalf of Lietuvos Rytas showed that 15.1 percent would vote for the Lithuanian Union of Peasants and Greens (LVŽS). (in July – 17.6 percent), for the National Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) – 14.9 percent. (17.2% in July).

8.5 percent would vote for the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP). (in July – 7.1 percent), and for “employees” – 8.4 percent. (6.2% in July) of the surveyed population.

For the Liberal Movement, he said he would vote 5.5 percent. (4.7% in July) of those surveyed.

According to the ratings published by Lietuvos Rytas, 3.8 percent would vote for the Freedom and Justice party. (3.7% in July) of all voters surveyed.

Calculating according to the voters who have already decided who to vote for in the Seimas elections, this party would enter parliament, since 5.3 percent intend to vote for it. of all respondents determined.

3% would vote for the Lithuanian Social Democratic Labor Party. (in July – 3.1 percent), for the Freedom Party – 2.5 percent. (in July – 1.6 percent), for the Lithuanian Polish Election Campaign-Union of Christian Families (LLRA-KŠS) – 2.5 percent. (in July – 2.2 percent), for the center-nationalist party – 1.9 (in July – 1.6 percent) of all voters at the polls.

The seven remaining political parties participating in the Seimas elections would receive 1.3 percent. up to 0.4 percent. voters’ votes.

As can be seen in the Vilmorus poll commissioned by Lietuvos Rytas, 1.3% would vote in favor of the Road of Courage, 1.2% in favor of the Green Party and 0.9% in favor of the Union of Intergenerational Solidarity -Santalka for Lithuania. for the National Union and the Christian Union – 0.7 percent each, for the Lithuanian People’s Party – 0.5 percent, for the party “Lithuania – All” – 0.4 percent. voters surveyed.

No big change

According to Aine Ramonaitė, professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science (TSPMI) of Vilnius University (VU), these ratings do not say anything very new.

The trends are the same as before.

“Some have decreased a few percentage points, some have increased, but basically everything is in error. No major change has been observed since July. And the disposition of the parties remains almost the same as before,” said the political scientist.

No major change has been observed since July. And that distribution of the parties remains almost the same as before.

According to a population poll conducted by Vilmorus, support for the Labor Party has increased the most since July.

A. Ramonaitė does not see this as an acceleration of this political force. She mentioned that other lawsuits have shown in the past that the party is in fourth place.

“I don’t think it should be the start of an even bigger increase, because this match now has a clear enough ceiling. She is one of those parties that has a certain niche, a certain specific electorate, but there are still a lot of people who don’t really like it. This is not an opportunity for you to somehow expand your base very much. Also, there is a time when voters still don’t know that Viktor Uspaskich won’t be on the list. And when they see the list without it, it can also slightly affect voters’ self-determination, “said the VU TSPMI professor.

Voters still do not know that V. Uspaskich will not be on the list. And when they see the list without it, it can also slightly affect the self-determination of voters.

Commenting on the slightly increased LSDP ratings, A. Ramonaitė emphasized that the difference since July is small.

“Everyone who has come across polls, probability theory, and errors knows that they cannot be treated as a serious change. Sure, if it were some clear ongoing trend, it might be possible to talk about change, but I see some more fluctuations here. If we look at the results of different polling agencies, the percentage is higher in some places and lower in others. Nor do I see any very clear trend here, “said the political scientist.

A. Ramonaitė also sees fluctuations in the results of the Liberal Movement in the public opinion poll.

It is said that the theme of the Freedom Party is more interesting because it is a new party.

“It is very interesting if your knowledge is increasing or not. It is very important to see the trend here, as it is clear that a new match starts off on a low start, so the question is what happens next. According to this survey, there is an increase, but it is so small: and that percentage is small, and that increase is small. Although again some other polls show a much higher percentage for this party ”, said the VU TSPMI speaker.

Fate is doomed

According to a poll conducted by Vilmorus on behalf of Lietuvos Rytas, voters do not have much support for small political parties participating in the elections.

According to A. Ramonaitė, the ratings of these parties are stably low.

At the same time, the researcher noted that depending on how these percentages are calculated, they may not seem entirely correct compared to the election results.

He noted that 18 percent of those surveyed said they did not know why they would vote in the election.

There is no such answer on the ballot. Undecided voters will not participate in elections at all, or perhaps before they come up with something to vote for.

According to A. Ramonaitė, when it comes to comparing such polls with election results, the percentages must be recalculated and calculated from those who know why they will vote. So it is quite likely that the ranking of the small parties is a bit higher.

But one thing is obvious – that these parties, especially, were less than 1 percent. pick up, I think, fate as condemned. There really is little time left and if we have not been able to break those limits of notoriety and we have gained momentum so far and if people believe that this match can win, then, I believe that nothing will happen anymore ”, emphasized A. Ramonaitė.

One thing is clear – that these parties, especially where less than 1 percent. pick up, I think, fate as condemned.

It is true that, according to the political scientist, this cannot be said of LLRA-KŠS. He always looks worse in the polls and he does better in the elections.

Polls don’t show everything

According to A. Ramonaitė, the summary of the results of the 2016 public opinion polls in the book “Can we predict the Seimas elections?” It has been prepared by the political scientist Mažvydas Jastramskis.

“Results were collected from not one, but from three polls conducted about a month before the elections, and compared with actual election results. There are some differences between the polls conducted by the different agencies. But no one could have predicted the results yet. of the elections with such precision. In most cases, the difference between the actual result and the polls was around 2-3 percent. But the difference with the Socdems was very clear in that case “, recalled the professor. of VU TSPMI.

In most cases, the difference between the actual result and the surveys was around 2-3 percent. But the difference with the Socdems in that case was very striking.

Before the last Seimas elections, the LSDP led the polls. The Social Democrats were the ruling party at the time, but, as A. Ramonaitė said, there was some general frustration with her.

Some voters who seemed more supportive of the party were not enthusiastic and did not go to the polls.

This poll conducted by Vilmorus on behalf of Lietuvos Rytas shows that 8.5 percent would not vote in the Seimas elections. surveyed.

“It just came to our knowledge then. So the question is what are they saying now, why will they vote. Because there is a certain social moment here, that it seems ugly to say that I will not participate, so you choose some safe option, something that you are not ashamed of. here if you say that I’m voting for them. But actually, maybe you don’t support them much. “I think it was the effect that the Socdems star had already passed, but people kept saying inertia that they would vote, although they really weren’t very enthusiastic. for voting for them, “said the political scientist.

A. Ramonaitė did not begin to assess whether there could be a similar effect with the ruling “peasants”. However, in her opinion, in this case there should not be such great differences between the polls and the results of the elections to the Seimas as in 2016.

In the polls prior to the last Seimas elections, fewer voters were in favor of the Liberals and the TS-LKD. They received more votes in the elections.

“It may be the effect that I mentioned here that the surveys that are carried out in the form of direct surveys do not capture a certain social stratum. These are the youngest people, they are not covered by people of higher status, and as a result, those results are different from reality. This can be the same. Because let’s say I keep seeing significant differences between the results based on the method: if it is face to face (direct) survey, either by phone or online, ”said the VU TSPMI professor.

Surveys carried out in the form of direct surveys do not capture a certain social stratum. These are the youngest people, they are not covered by people of higher status, and as a result, the results are different from reality.