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Preliminary results from the 299 constituencies showed that the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) won the most votes, with 25.7 percent.
Outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel’s political force, the center-right bloc made up of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU), received 24.1 percent. votes. This is the worst result for the Conservatives in seven decades: their support has never dropped below 30%.
In third place are the Greens (14.8%), in fourth place the Free Democratic Liberal Party (FDP; 11.5%), in fifth place is the far-right “Alternative to Germany” (AfDS) (10.3 %), in sixth place is the extreme left party (Die Linke; 4.9%).
What will the coalition be like?
For Germany, accustomed to stability during Merkel’s presence as chancellor for 16 years, political storms promise in the coming months.
Both Olaf Scholz, 63, who led the Social Democrats to victory, and Armin Laschet, 60, Merkel’s successor, said they had received a mandate from the nation to form a new government and would seek coalition partners.
“Scholz wants to be in power, Laschet also wants to be in power. The poker begins: who has better cards? “Asked the Bild newspaper.
Both candidates for chancellor said their goal was to bring the cabinet together for Christmas. Germany will chair the G7 club next year, so it is vital that the country have a government by then.
For the moment, the most likely outcome appears to be a tripartite coalition that will break the postwar tradition of a bipartisan coalition government.
Both S. Scholz and A. Laschet will analyze the Greens and Liberals of the FDP. However, all political forces have fundamental disagreements on issues such as tax increases and public investment in climate protection.
The Greens’ chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock has not yet expressed her wishes, but has said the time has come for “a new beginning” in Germany. By the way, the majority of voters under the age of 30 voted for the Greens, and the party managed to almost double its previous result: instead of the previous 67 seats in the Bundestag, it will now have around 118.
FDP leader Christian Lindner suggested that before talks with the two largest parties, the Liberals first sit down with the Greens to speed up the process.
Lindner tends to favor Jamaica’s coalition with the Conservatives and the Greens: the bloc is named after the Jamaican flag because of the colors black, yellow and green that are identified with these parties. But the liberal leader did not reject the coalition of the “traffic light” with the SPD and the Greens, again with the traditional colors of these parties, red, yellow and green.
On this occasion, neither the SPD nor the CDU-CSU want to repeat the “grand coalition” of the left and right, which made up three of Merkel’s four governments. And none of the major parties intend to cooperate with the far-right Alternative to Germany (AfD).
Until the difficult talks about the new government, Merkel, 67, will continue as chancellor. If the coalition talks last longer than Dec. 17, the current chief of staff will break Helmut Kohl’s record as the longest-serving German chancellor.
Leaders – on swings
The German chancellor is not directly elected: the lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, votes for his candidacy after the formation of the government.
A poll by the public opinion poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen showed how supporters of the two largest political forces, the Social Democrats and the Conservatives, view their party leaders.
58 percent of those who voted for the CDU and the CSU bloc believe that the reason for the failure in the elections was the current leader A. Laschet. 28 percent said their arrival at the party was neither bad nor good, and only 11 percent. believes that Merkel’s successor will be able to play her role well.
In the field of the main conservative rivals, up to 70 percent. Voters do not doubt that the victory of the SPD was determined by the personality of O. Scholz. 21 percent have a neutral rating and only 5 percent. He argued that this leader was damaging the image of the Social Democrats.
Political commentators believe that conservative affairs began to deteriorate when Merkel, for the first time since the 2000s, decided not to seek re-election as party leader.
On the other hand, in a survey conducted by the Civey research institute, 52 percent. Respondents indicated that they would likely or would not miss the longtime chancellor when she left politics. But 38 percent. argued otherwise, and among Conservative Alliance voters up to 68 percent. expressed his sympathy for Merkel.
Recognized for their diligence
Scholz, the most realistic chancellor candidate, is one of the most influential German politicians, with a reputation for being diligent, trustworthy and highly ambitious.
In the government led by Merkel, he has held the position since 2018. He held the positions of finance minister and vice chancellor, maintained close ties with the chancellor and even sought to establish himself as a true candidate for the continuity of his policy, although he belonged to another party.
O.Scholz, nicknamed Scholzomat, did not differ from his competitors in his way of speaking. However, unlike his two main rivals, Laschet and Baerbock, this politician managed to avoid reckless communication and image errors during the election campaign.
Scholz is known as a supporter of conservative fiscal discipline. Although he agreed to deactivate Germany’s much-prized “debt brake” to combat the coronavirus pandemic, the finance minister insisted that by 2023, return to tighter monetary policy.
As a result of his cautious approach, Scholz sometimes found himself on the fringes of the Social Democrats. It went unnoticed in 2019 in the election of the party leader: preference was given to two relatively unknown leftists. However, during the parliamentary election campaign, he followed a model SPD policy in support of a planned property tax and an increase in the minimum wage.
Born in the north of the country, in Osnabrück, Scholz joined the SPD early. Initially fascinated by leftist ideals, he soon opted for a more centrist course. After graduating as a lawyer specializing in labor matters in 1998, Scholz was elected to the Bundestag.
That same year she married her colleague, the Social Democratic politician Britt Ernst.
2002-2004 as secretary general of the SPD, he earned the nickname Scholcomat, dryly but tirelessly defending the unpopular reforms of the work of his then-beloved Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.
As Minister of Labor in Merkel’s first coalition government in 2007-2009. Scholz helped prevent mass layoffs during the financial crisis by persuading companies to cut working hours while the state contributed to wages, a policy that was repeated during the pandemic.
Scholz, who has been deputy head of the SPD for almost a decade, also supports further integration of the eurozone and a greater German contribution to the EU budget after Brexit.
The popularity of the holidays is already different
Following the announcement of the preliminary results of the German parliamentary elections, the number of votes received by political movements can be compared to 2017. elections.
Social democratic party
2017 m. – 20.5 proc. 2021 m. – 25.7 proc.
Bloc of the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union
2017 m. – 32.9 proc. 2021 m. – 24.1 proc.
Greens Party
2017 m. – 8.9 proc. 2021 m. – 14.8 proc.
Free Democratic Party
2017 m. – 10.7 proc. 2021 m. – 11.5 proc.
“Alternative to Germany”
2017 m. – 12.6 proc. 2021 m. – 10.3 proc.
“The left”
2017 m. – 9.2 proc. 2021 m. – 4.9 proc.
Prepared according to Deutsche Welle, BBC, ELTA inf.
