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The organizers of the so-called Great March for the Defense of the Family and the three-day unauthorized campaign in Vilnius, which took place in Vingis Park, appear to be more ambitious.
The 35 activists gathered in Kaunas over the weekend decided to establish an association, whose congress is scheduled for mid-August, and further protests are being prepared in September.
Goals and plans are vague
Defenders of the family have yet to detail further plans, but political scientists point to an eloquent detail.
“The fact that the establishment of the association is announced in the Seimas is probably also a sign that an attempt will be made to break into politics,” Rima Urbonaitė, a professor at Mykolas Romeris University, told Lietuvos Rytas.
Political experts are quite skeptical about the prospects of the new entity, but they do not rule out that some of the so-called traditional parties could cause problems.
According to R. Urbonaitė, it is still difficult to understand if the Asociación Movimiento Familia can become a party: “They talk vaguely about their plans, and this is surprising. Because when a legal entity is created, long-term action plans are usually named as well. In this case, almost nothing is known about them or they are very short-lived. “
However, the political scientist tends to believe that in the future, if supported, the association may try to become a political party: “Otherwise, who needs early elections to the Seimas, which, by the way, they mention? I think they have some political goals. “
According to the Vytautas Magnus University professor, Mindaugas Jurkynas, who holds the position of Jean Monnet Chair, when discussing the prospects of the association, it is necessary to assess the current supply and demand for socially conservative ideas: therefore, nothing new Has happened under this sun “
According to the political scientist, the various movements of the new nationalists would be more likely to join forces, but he was also extremely skeptical about such a possibility.
Who has the biggest puzzle?
M. Jurkynas does not believe that the new fringe movement poses a more serious threat to the operational groups, but he did not rule out that the history of the “Path of Courage” could repeat itself.
“It all depends on the relevance of the problems this movement poses. If they are not relevant, the movement has collapsed.
But if there is some acute problem in the flames of society and the media heaps oil, Garliava’s story can be repeated when a party of a problem goes national for a period. It’s true, I don’t see the conditions for that now, ”said the political scientist.
At that time, R. Urbonaitė believed that the new structure should cause headaches for more than one party. This is also demonstrated by various polls in favor of the protesters: “This is a good source of inspiration for them, so the parties that look at the failures of Rimantas Dagis or other similar actors should not be fooled.”
According to the political scientist, the emergence of similar populist political structures without a clear agenda could be a bad sign for the entire party system: “Just the question, who will have the biggest headache?
I think it could be the biggest threat to the Labor Party, as well as to the peasants who flirted with the Family March. “
It is true that R. Urbonaitė also sees an obvious deficiency in the association that is being created: there are no inspiring or mobilizing faces among the organizers of the march.
Think about being careful
President Gitan Nauseda, for whom this organization could become a pillar for a second term, will he not become the main icon of the Family Movement that is being created? In this case, the opinions of the political scientists almost coincided.
“It is not yet known what the position of G. Nausėda will be. Until now, he says that he communicates with everyone and tries to listen to everyone.
I do not think that the Presidency is in a hurry to tie up, because such a measure would be very risky. There are already questions about who is behind some of the organizers of the march, perhaps even a non-Lithuanian structure. I think the president will be very careful, “said R. Urbonaitė.
M. Jurkynas is convinced that the Presidency has nothing in common with the defenders of the family: “Going to the radical side would mean that the President withdraws from the centrist positions, which G. Nausėda is trying to maintain without any support in the Seimas.
By linking up with the radicals, he would lose his main constituency and weaken the possibility of reelection. However, his constituents are more moderate and I doubt that the president would like to have anything to do with the formation of the association or contribute to its emergence. “
