Armenians injured by Nagorno-Karabakh, but some see Russia as a “savior”

In early November, Armenia and Azerbaijan, through the mediation of Russia, reached an agreement to end hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh. Under the agreement, much of the region controlled by Armenia in recent decades has passed to Azerbaijan.

The Armenians welcomed this agreement: they invaded and destroyed the government and parliament buildings. The protests continue in the country until now, with the resignation of half of the members of the government.

Political scientist Richard Giragosyan told Radio Free Europe that many Armenians now see Russia as a savior, not a “scapegoat” to blame for territorial losses.

“This is an interesting paradox, because during the 45-day war in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh itself, there was some resentment and frustration that Russia was unusually passive and contemplative,” said the director of the Yerevan-based Center for Regional Studies.

“Russia did not immediately come to the rescue and did not meet the safety expectations of the majority of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. A large part of the Armenian population expected a stronger response from Russia,” he added.

“Russia has made it clear that the security commitments in Armenia end at the Armenian border. Russia is determined to defend, protect and assist the Republic of Armenia itself, but not Nagorno-Karabakh,” Giragosyan told RL / RFE.

There are several versions of Russian passivity. Even before the ceasefire was announced, carnegerie.ru Alexander Baunov, editor-in-chief, wrote that although Armenia was a close ally of Russia, the latter has nothing to punish Azerbaijan, which has never been hostile to it.

Baunov wrote that Moscow looks at the current Armenian government with suspicion: Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian came to power after the Color Revolution in 2018, saying that this government is trying to diversify Armenia’s geopolitical orientation, not always taking Moscow into account. .

In addition, the United States, which Russia is desperately trying to exclude from regional conflicts, did not participate in the Nagorno-Karabakh affairs, writes A. Baunov.

Without Russia, even worse?

Arman Grigorian, a professor at Lihai University, told the RL / RFE that he had heard complaints from Armenians who were outraged “because Russia had not done all that it should during the war.”

“However, you can hear from different segments of the population that if it weren’t for Russia, ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh would be completely doomed,” Grigorian said.

They believe that Nagorno-Karabakh would be fully occupied, perhaps even Armenia itself. It is impossible to say how these opinions are distributed, because no one has conducted opinion polls, “he added.

“In the end, Russia’s efforts stopped the war. It is probably fair to say that if it weren’t for Russia’s efforts, the consequences of the war for Armenians would probably be even worse,” Grigorian told RL / RFE.

Following the announcement of the deal, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said the “painful” decision was made in consultation with the military.

“It just came to our attention then. For those who fought at the front, there was no change. Those who fought should have a chance to rest. There has been no one to change the people at the front for a month. As a result, the leaders of the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Arcach decided to end the war as soon as possible, otherwise the consequences would be much more severe, “said Pashinian at the time.

Will the influence of Russia grow?

According to the agreement, almost 2,000 people are deployed in Nagorno-Karabakh. Russian “peacemakers”. Analysts believe this will help strengthen Russia’s influence in the region.

“The agreement also establishes a corridor between the territory of Azerbaijan, such as the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic in western Armenia, and the real Azerbaijan. This corridor will also be controlled by Russian forces, which means that Russia will be able to decide on the Armenia’s access to Iran, as the corridor will cut off an already small section of the border with Iran, “he said in early November. 15 minutes said Mateusz Kubiak, an expert on the Caucasus region.

Analysts believe that the Kremlin may also benefit from Pashin’s diminishing influence. It is possible that the situation will be taken advantage of and the so-called “Karabakh clan”, the pro-Russian elite that ruled until 2018, will return to power.

However, other analysts note that the region has seen the largest increase in influence from Turkey, which has provided unprecedented support for Azerbaijan in recent months.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the final state of Nagorno-Karabakh has not been resolved, the issue will be discussed in the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). It is chaired by Russia, France and the United States.

Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Nikolas Pašinianas

According to Thomas de Waal, an expert at the Carnegie Research Center, such statements by Putin could become an argument to keep the Russian peacekeepers for more than five years, as provided for in the ceasefire agreement.

Putin can pressure Armenia and Azerbaijan to restore bilateral ties, but not necessarily.

“If both sides are in a position to suspend the violence, it is a good reason for the Russian peacekeepers to stay.” Russia’s agenda is probably more about designing its own power and trade routes than a lasting peace in the South Caucasus, “writes Th. De Waal. carnegie.ru in the published analysis.