Analysts: EU will extend sanctions to Belarus, but regime will be rescued by Kremlin

On Sunday, Charles Michel, president of the European Council (EVS), announced that the issue of sanctions against Belarus will be on the agenda of this institution, where leaders meet.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda promises to propose that Belarusian airspace be recognized as an unsafe space for civil aviation and that the Belavia planes of the Belarusian airline be deprived of the right to land at EU and NATO airports.

Minsk will be saved by Moscow

Belarusian commentator Artiomas Šraibman believes that the EU may consider restrictions on air travel with Belarus, impose new economic or specific sanctions on some Belarusian officials and launch investigations into the landing of the plane.

Shraibman: Russia is willing to make up for most of the damage that the EU can cause.

“Economic sanctions are more painful than targeted sanctions that restrict visa issuance, but would the regime suffer as a result? I’m not sure.

The EU has very little influence over Belarus. And Russia is ready to make up for most of the damage the EU can do. I am not convinced that the sanctions are effective, because Belarus will simply be saved by Moscow. And this will lead to an even greater dependence on Russia. ” 15 minutes said A. Shraibman.

According to the observer, for the sanctions to change the behavior of the Belarusian regime, all the country’s neighbors should join them.

Professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science of Vilnius University prof. Dovilė Jakniūnaitė says that in the short term, the EU can be expected to express a firm position and condemn events.

According to D. Jakniūnaitė, sanctions will also be considered.

“There is likely to be a shift from specific restrictions on people’s financial activities to movement towards sector-specific economic sanctions for specific sectors. Airspace security will also be considered, but closed airspace is not very easy; there are many other aspects. No more tools “, – 15 minutes said the political scientist.

“In this century, it has been understood that trade and export closures and general sanctions disproportionately harm the population. The problem is that the stronger the sanctions, the more likely it is that not only the regime, but also people who are not directly involved in the regime will be affected, “he added.

In February, the EU extended targeted sanctions against senior Belarusian officials responsible for cracking down on peaceful protesters, members of the opposition and journalists for a further year. Sanctions were also imposed on officials who contributed to the falsification of the results of the 2020 presidential elections in Belarus.

EU financial and travel restrictions currently apply to 88 Belarusians, including autocratic President Aliaksandr Lukashenko, as well as seven legal persons.

Predicts whataboutizmą

According to A. Shraibman, these facts show that the Belarusian regime is determined to use any means to silence critics, and does not care about its international reputation.

“It just came to our knowledge then whataboutizmo on the Belarusian side. They will look for similar examples in history, including US behavior, to claim that they can do it themselves. They are already talking about a case in which, five years ago, Ukrainian special services diverted a plane from Ukraine to Belarus back to Kiev to pursue a political opponent.

The plane with the Bolivian president was forced to land in Vienna on suspicion of Edward Snowden. “The Belarusian government is definitely a generation that is doing what everyone else is doing,” said the commentator.

According to D. Jakniūnaitė, when an autocrat does not want to leave the government and has all the resources of power to do so, “it is very difficult to force him to do so without very radical interventions, which we are not talking about.”

Sviatlan Cichanouskaya’s adviser Franak Viačorka shared on Twitter suggestions on how the international community, including the European Union, could respond to the incident.

According to F. Viacorka, a no-fly zone should be declared over Belarus and “the broadest possible sanctions” should be applied to the operators of the diversion of the plane to Minsk airport and the arrest of journalist Raman Pratasavičius.

“Lukashenko must be cut from funding: sanctions against oligarchs, the oil and potash sectors and the arms trade. Discuss the issue of Belarus at the G7 and the United Nations Security Council, to increase support for the media and civil society, “said the activist.

EU unit test

Many observers agree that the European Council on Monday and Tuesday will be a real test for the Community.

“It just came to our attention then. If the EU cannot respond with real action to the state-organized interception of a passenger plane flying from one EU capital to another and to the kidnapping of a journalist, what can it do? ? ”Asks historian and political commentator Timothy Garton Ash.

For his part, Michael Kimmage, historian at the American Catholic University and analyst at the German Marshall Foundation 15 minutes He warned that Belarus even wanted to provoke a tough response from the EU.

“The incident may be triggered by a response that Lukashenko could use: additional sanctions, restrictions on air travel and other means between Belarus and the EU. Lukashenko may want the aura of the geopolitical crisis, rather than his distraction within the country. , become the new narrative.

Minsk also wants to show that the EU’s support for the Belarusian opposition is minimal. The aim is to provoke the Community to bring Belarus even closer to Russia ”, commented M. Kimmage.

Ukrainian journalist Olga Tokariuk pointed out that the possible decision to ban flights from Belarus to EU countries could harm the Belarusian people more than Lukashenko.

“Belarusians have been fleeing the country in groups in recent months. Activists and journalists are at particular risk. Last week, another journalist with five children left the country on a plane.

Without flights, it will be much more difficult for people to leave. Lukashenko and his host, Putin, must be punished. But the people of Belarus need to be protected, we cannot isolate them and leave them alone with the dictator, “said O. Tokariuk.

Suggest Russia be punished too

Edward Lucas, senior analyst at the European Center for Policy Analysis (CEPA), is also convinced that Europe is taking a test of enormous importance and fears that the Community will not pass it because it will not dare to punish Russia, which surpasses it. .

“Lukashenko is not afraid. He has been killing and paralyzing people for nine months and we have done nothing in the European Union. We are to blame for this, we could have stopped him, but we did not.

Sanctions are needed for both Lukashenko and Russia because Russia is protecting it. We should tell Putin that Lukashenko is her husband and that is why Putin is responsible for his behavior. We should tell him that if he doesn’t stop Lukashenko, there will be no Nord Stream 2. We could attack Russia. ” 15 minutes Lucas said.

The analyst emphasizes that he does not want the people of Belarus to be punished “for the sins of their leaders”, that the place of the country is really in Europe, so sanctions must be very selective.

“The Minsk regime only works because Putin supports the repression. We can do a lot, and Lithuania has worked wonderfully for nine months, but other countries have not tried. And that makes me very angry.

The EU needs unity, but the EU leaders are very weak. Von der Leyen, Michel, Borrell, they all sound like clowns. If Europe wants geopolitical weight, strategic autonomy, here we are, please, we have a problem right on the community border.

So if we fail to address this issue, what are the chances that we will have to do something else in other areas? “I am afraid that Europe will not succeed, it seems that the EU cannot act as a union of 27 countries,” said E. Lucas.

M.Šešelgytė: the question of whether Western Europe will link the question of Belarus and its talks with Russia. These countries are closely linked and Putin could influence Lukashenko.

True, director of the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University dr. Margaret Šešelgytė 15 minutes He argued that it was far from clear whether the EU would link the Belarusian-Russian cases.

“The meeting between Putin and Biden is coming up. The question is how this event is related to him and if it is related. The question is whether Western Europe will link the Belarus issue and the talks with Russia. These countries are very connected and Putin can influence Lukashenko, “said M. Šešelgytė.

But she does not believe that the European Council is currently considering possible sanctions against Russia as well.

“I doubt the idea is on the table at the moment. Nothing has been proven, these are our assumptions. Research is needed.

On the other hand, when Belarus secedes from Russia, there may be more determination to punish Belarus, because Belarus is not too interesting for anyone. The limits have been exceeded and we are punishing ”, considered M. Šešelgytė.