Analysts Ask: Can EU Sanctions Change Aliaksandr Lukashenko’s Behavior?

The EU and other Western countries have been pressuring the Minsk regime since last August’s presidential elections, whose legitimacy is in serious doubt.

It is true that when the outbreak of protests was suppressed, only a few members of the Community, including Lithuania, were more active in criticizing Belarus. Sviatlana Cichanouskaja, leader of the opposition who participated in the aforementioned elections, remained in Vilnius.

However, tensions flared again on May 23, when a Ryanair passenger plane landed in Minsk. The blogger Roman Protasevičius and his partner Sofia Sapega, who were traveling with him, were detained at the airport and are now in custody.

EU leaders soon agreed to ban Belarusian airlines, in particular Belavia, from flying to the bloc’s airports, and asked member airlines not to fly into Belarusian airspace.

Additional financial and personal sanctions are being prepared. In Brussels and other capitals, it is angrily reiterated that such arrogant behavior, which forces a reconsideration of civil aviation rules, must cost the Lukashenko regime.

But will it cost? Analysts interviewed by the Carnegie Europe Research Center agreed that the EU sanctions would not force Lukashenko to behave differently, even if necessary. Experts believe that efforts should be made not to isolate ordinary Belarusians and therefore more active support for civil society is needed.

Perhaps it is not Lukashenko who will think, but others

Ian Bond, an analyst at the European Reform Center and head of the foreign policy department, thinks Lukashenko’s sanctions won’t really make you think. But the right constraints can change the calculations of other leaders on whom the Minsk regime depends.

“There are different levels of sanctions. They can aim to change the behavior of the target by imposing a kind of tax on them and they can prohibit the import of sensitive technologies. But sanctions can also just signal disapproval,” says I. Bond.

According to him, the EU sanctions against Belarus have been published and lifted for the last 25 years, which fall into the second category.

“The repression is not based on high-level technology: brutality and threats dominate. The EU bans on importing something will not stop attacks on civil society.

But the landing of an EU-registered plane and the kidnapping of one of its passengers should require sanctions for regime leaders and Lukashenko’s trustees to consider whether the president really needs to be supported, “Bond said.

Sanctions also protect the sovereignty of the EU

Liana Fix, director of the international relations program at the Körber Foundation, agrees that EU sanctions will not replace Lukashenko, but that they serve two other important roles.

First, the new airspace sanctions package was intended to be a strong signal for Minsk and other regimes that could present similar approaches. “In other words, these restrictions protect the sovereignty of the EU,” said Fix.

Second, the new sanctions will increase the economic pressure on the Lukashenko regime. This is not a recipe for rapid democratic change, as Lukashenko is backed by Moscow. But it will be more difficult for the regime to follow the current course ”, adds the analyst.

According to Fix, the EU should also try to find other ways to support Belarusians, especially civil society, both within the country and in exile. The activists need more financial support and just a sense of security: Belarusians living in Lithuania, Poland and elsewhere must believe that no one will persecute them here.

“But there is no alternative to sanctions for a regime that decides to land an airliner for repression. The normative message is that this is unacceptable and the EU will not tolerate this type of action ”, emphasizes the expert.

A. Shraibman: There will be nothing without Russia

Renowned Belarusian analyst Artiomas Šraibman, who decided to leave the country this week, is convinced that there are no EU sanctions that could affect Lukashenko.

“Under pressure, he would not only damage his image, but also show Belarusian bureaucrats that he is weak.”

Lukashenko would rather pass the damage on to the economy as a whole, blame the sanctions on the crisis, and hope that Russia will save him again, simply because Moscow will never have another such anti-Western ally. That means this, ”writes A. Šraibmanas.

A. Shraibman: The end of the crisis will depend on Russia; no matter how unpleasant, without a serious dialogue with Russia, the West will not do much in Belarus.

The analyst emphasizes that the risk of Belarus becoming almost completely dependent on Russia is very real: Isolated from European markets, Lukashenko will simply not be able to divert exports – fertilizers or oil products – to Russia and its ports.

But indirect effects are possible. By depriving the regime of sources of income, the EU will increase Lukashenko’s maintenance costs to Moscow.

And if sanctions on Belarus hurt Russia’s interests, such as the possibility of exporting gas through Belarus, Moscow will hear more voices calling for a faster solution to the crisis in Minsk.

Clearly, this path is slippery, because if the EU openly views Putin and Lukashenko as some kind of double-headed autocratic monster, the two leaders will only get even closer. In any case, the end of the crisis will depend on Russia; no matter how unpleasant it may be, without a serious dialogue with Russia, the West will not do much in Belarus, ”considers A. Shraibman.

The changes for Lukashenko would mean political suicide

Ken Godfrey, director of the European Association for Democracy, points out that the EU has already announced sanctions against Belarus more than once: in 2004, 2006 and 2013. However, in 2016, the community decided to lift the restrictions on 170 officers and three defense companies in the hope that “the leopard will change the spots on its fur.”

“But Lukashenko will not change, because it would be political suicide.” When has a 25-year-old autocratic leader changed? Godfrey asks.

However, he is convinced that the sanctions against Belarusian officials and companies would become an important signal and a kind of whip, a reward for the unexpected decision of 2016, despite the fact that several political prisoners were released at that time.

And what could be the so-called gingerbread? Godrey recalls that the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has proposed “This message is also important, although a similar proposal did not work in 2010.”

Lack of rigor?

Jovana Marovič, director of the Politikon network in Montenegro, says the EU expected a response, but said a tougher response would be more effective.

“On the one hand, the economic sanctions already imposed and in the future will deal new blows to the people of Belarus, who have done nothing. On the other hand, previous restrictions have already shown that it is difficult to punish Lukashenko, who is backed by Vladimir Putin. But that’s the only way, “says Marovič.

It is necessary to raise the price

Stefan Meister, director of the Henrich Böll Foundation branch in Tbilisi, emphasizes that changing the regime’s behavior is not the goal of EU sanctions; the Community wants to show that by putting pressure on the people, Minsk cannot go beyond the red lines of international law and norms.

“But the EU, even without expecting major changes in the near future, has yet to raise the cost of unacceptable actions for the regime.

The Community wants to show that by putting pressure on the people, Minsk cannot cross the red lines of international law and norms.

Of course, as long as Russia keeps Lukashenko, it is difficult to expect a change, but both Moscow and Minsk must realize that such behavior comes at a cost.

Furthermore, the sanctions are an important signal to the Belarusian public, showing that the EU supports it and responds to developments in the country. But it is necessary to immediately clear the way for Belarusians to reach the Community, to assign work and study visas, “says Meister.

Lukashenko can no longer keep his balance

Kristi Raik, director of the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute, has no doubt that the EU needs to impose tougher sanctions, simply for an incident involving the landing of a Ryanair plane, which he calls a “state terror attack” .

“Unfortunately, the sanctions are unlikely to change anything. The opposition and the EU want free and fair elections, but Lukashenko doesn’t care. Having lost all legitimacy and turned the Belarusians into an enemy, Lukashenko can only resort to repression. , despite pushing Belarus into an alliance with Russia.

After the crackdown in recent months, Lukashenko can no longer balance the EU and Russia. The community must carefully weigh the sanctions to reduce their impact on ordinary Belarusians and not benefit the Kremlin, “Raik said.