Ališauskienė: the question of whether the voters did not confuse the names of the parties

“So far not very surprising, just keep in mind that this is only a third of the vote. There are many neighborhoods but they are still small. The big ones will come a little later. Vilnius, Kaunas are bigger cities and will have a significant impact I would say that it might be difficult to say that it is surprising, but a better than expected result for the Freedom Party and a much worse result for Freedom and Justice. The question here is as if the smaller neighborhood of the Freedom Party, rural, it seems that this party should not be very popular there according to its program The question is whether the voters did not confuse the names.

I am not saying that they wanted to vote for Žemaitaitis, but that they voted for Armonaitė. I say that, in general, similar names confuse people a bit in the electoral campaign itself. Like the social workers, the Labor Party or the Social Democrats. They are very similar and some people do not always choose who is who, ”said R. Ališauskienė.

“The most interesting thing about Libertad y Justicia was what happened, because they did quite well during the first half of the year. It looked like it would enter the Seimas, now it looks like it won’t. And the Labor Party looks better in those areas than it looked like another month, a month and a half before the election. This is a possibility that many people were undecided. We also said before the election that people had a menu, mostly like this, but if sometimes it’s not Party A, then maybe C or D. In this place, Freedom and Justice overlaps more with the Labor Party and the Social Democrats ”, added R. Ališauskienė.

According to her, the picture of the results should change when counting the votes of the big cities, because in terms of activity, the electoral districts of Vilnius alone were more active than anywhere else, and Vilnius traditionally votes more for the National Union and the liberal parties.

As for the second round, it was said that traditionally right-wing candidates had more difficulties in the second round than in the first.

“Because still a part of the broader spectrum of Lithuanian voters is to the left of the center. We also see it in terms of the popularity of the parties: the peasants, the Social Democrats, the workers get a little more than the right-wing parties. If they support one of the candidates on their side, they have a slightly better chance. This has been the case from the beginning, “he said.

R. Ališauskienė commented that little is said about the parties for which they voted, but that they will not enter the Seimas. According to her, part of the voters who went to the polls will not be represented.

“Looking at those parties that raise 5 percent. It is not yet clear how many there will be, but it should still be about Lithuania’s electoral law and system. About a third of the voters who went to the polls do not have their own candidates. Because small parties will raise about 30, maybe 25 percent, that’s a lot. One in three voters voted, not the one who goes on TV at home not to elect them, but this man came and voted for that. And perhaps the idea of ​​changing that cartel was not so bad, because there are countries where, or nothing, there is no barrier, it is enough to collect as many votes as one mandate. Because in this way a fairly large proportion of voters remain unrepresented.

Coalitions are, of course, tougher, but the question then is about the representation of the voters. Next, if we talk about a voter having one vote, it is not really the case, because we vote as two: the list and the candidate. And there are many cases where a person votes for one party, but does not like the candidate of that party in his constituency, chooses another, votes for two parties, “said R. Ališauskienė.

According to her, in the second round, everything will depend on how well known the candidate is.

“How different is this election, a bit from 2016, that year was the need for novelty, the vote for what was not yet in politics, single-member in particular. They also voted for a sufficiently unknown candidate, but that would not be one of the ancients. This time it does not seem to be the case, it attracts many parties if it is a well-known candidate in the constituency. It will not depend in part on the party to which the two left belong, but on which party will be better known in that constituency, ”he said.

Speaking of the Social Democrats, R. Ališuaskienė pointed out that his electorate overlaps with “peasants” and “workers”.

“The peasants rose as from a well like the one before the pandemic. It became more popular during the pandemic, and the fact that it lags behind the workers, we should also look at the election campaign itself, how active it was, because the social democratic and labor electorate is not big cities, more districts. Those who were more active work more actively in places. As I mentioned, the Socdem, the Workers and Freedom and Justice have had an overlapping electorate, until now it seems that the Workers have managed to attract those who fluctuated the most to their side, ”he said.

R. Ališauskienė also noted that the pandemic could have set foot in the opposition, which was not visible.

“It just came to our attention then. Under these conditions, there were no elections. Spring, on the other hand, was the style of that political life. There were hardly any opposition parties in the good half. I think it was partly a mistake, because there was quarantine and restricted life throughout Europe, but in other countries and the opposition parties were active enough, offering their own scenarios on how to deal with this pandemic. “This time the electoral campaign is very short,” said the sociologist.