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“How to open safely? Although MAMA was a completely inappropriate event, it sparked a debate about which events would be safe. First, it should be understood that any event or activity in which possible human contact during an epidemic is risky. The main question is, what is the risk? ”Asked V.Zemlys – Balevičius on his Facebook account of the social network.
According to him, in recent years, the epidemic in most countries has been managed by dividing activities into necessary and unnecessary. In necessary activities, risk is minimized by introducing security requirements and unnecessary activities are not allowed. As epidemic rates deteriorate, the list of necessary activities shortens, and as they improve, the list of necessary activities becomes permissible and unnecessary.
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“The main disadvantage of this model is that the risk of the activities is evaluated too conservatively (that is, the risk estimates are higher than the actual risk). An attempt is made to decide which activities are opened or closed according to various criteria, most of the time according to the impact of the opening of activities on the epidemic indicators. If the epidemic deteriorates after the opening of activities, it means that those activities are riskier, if they improve, they are less risky. In Lithuania restrictions were introduced on a similar principle. It was based on several scientific studies and it was decided which activities could be allowed and which could not ”, assured the data scientist.
According to the expert, in principle, such a model is not deficient. It has been successfully applied in Asian countries, New Zealand and Australia. At low epidemic rates, shutting down activities quickly produces the desired result, the epidemic recedes, and all activities can be released again.
In other countries, unfortunately, this model has not worked, since the greater tolerance of the chosen epidemic indicators does not allow them to quickly fall to a level where activities can be opened with existing risk estimates.
“A possible solution is a more accurate assessment of the risks of all activities. If we have an activity, its risk can be assessed by the extent to which that activity” generates “new cases of covid-19. If the number of cases is zero, the activity is safe. As with scenarios A, B, C, D, it is possible to identify a series of “safe” cases for which an activity is possible and for which it is no longer safe and is no longer safe. can allow. The new “generated” cases can be counted by testing all the people involved in the activity. The appropriate testing methodology must be used for this, because all the covid-19 tests that are currently used have their drawbacks “, says V Zemlys-Balevičius.
The researcher maintains that in practice we have examples of how activities are possible with an adequate risk assessment. In Lithuania, preventive tests were applied in medical institutions, which allowed them to continue to function even at the highest level of the epidemic. The cumulative experiment, in which several schools were opened and students were constantly evaluated in them, showed that the epidemiological risk could be controlled. A concert was held in Barcelona that would potentially show what the risks are, since all the participants were evaluated. and it will be tested after the event.
“More risk assessment experiments are needed. It is proposed that an event similar to the one in Barcelona be held in Lithuania as well. SAM does not allow it yet, although it is proposed that the event be held in June. Supermarkets have submitted their proposals to the Government , in which epidemiological risk is also controlled to the maximum. Why not give it a try? With the epidemic on the rise, it may not be wise to do so now, but when they do drop, I see no reason not to. Even now, With a different situation in different municipalities, such experiments could be carried out where the epidemiological situation allows.
I have no illusions that these ideas will immediately magically solve all the problems that exist now. Ideas need to be considered further, it is necessary to invite more experts from different fields to validate them. It is also necessary to implement ideas, which until now is difficult to achieve. But why not give it a try? ”Asked V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
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