After the Minister’s words – the unrest in Warsaw: doubts about the fate of the government and the threat to the EU Economic Recovery Fund

In an interview with Poland’s TVN24, Wojcik said that his group intended to oppose and block the approval of the European Union Recovery Fund, although the coalition’s main partners, Justice and Justice (PiS), had already expressed their project support.

The Polish government is in a strange situation, as securing a ruling majority in the Polish Sejm requires 230 seats, and the current government has a fragile majority of 234 votes, and the loss of even a few seats in the Sejm would endanger the capacity of the government. March.

In the Polish “Right Right” coalition, the leader is the political force “Law and Justice”, two smaller parties work together. One of them is the United Poland party, which has 18 seats in the Seimas, is in no hurry to support raising the debt ceiling of the European Union and does not hide its disappointment that all member states of the European Union have to repay the bottom.

The party is also concerned that candidate Member States have to respect the principles of European Union law; otherwise they will not receive the money. In cases where infractions of the rule of law affect or even harm the financial interests of the bloc, financing may be interrupted at the initiative of the European Commission with the consent of a qualified majority of Member States.

“We strongly oppose the idea of ​​a single European Union debt and the federalization of the European Union, as this would amount to creating a single European state,” United Poland Minister Michal Wojcik said on TVN24, adding that he had “doubts” as to whether the European Union could borrow at all, “wrote politico.eu.

United Poland MEP Patryk Jaki shares this skepticism and argues that, in principle, “there is no possibility that United Poland supports the FRR”. If Law and Justice begin to demand it, we will no longer see the future of our party in the ruling coalition. “

Describes the project as flawed for Poland. And it’s not just about money, it’s about systemic issues. Poland will continue to receive money in one form or another, and joining the common debt will mean that from now on Warsaw will also be responsible for the long-term financial obligations of Greece or Spain. It is dangerous”.

COVID Economic Recovery and Resilience Fund – Share of € 750 billion The next-generation EU package to lift the bloc out of the pitfalls of a pandemic-driven economy, while promoting priority areas such as the transition to green energy.

Ramūnas Vilpišauskas, a political scientist at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University, spoke about whether there was a real threat to the future of the Polish government and the EU Delfi Recovery Fund.

“It is probably a threat to the Polish ruling coalition. If the leadership of United Poland decides that this issue is so important to them that it is worth sacrificing the stability of the coalition, but that it could have a significant impact on the processes of the Union. I doubt it, because I understand that if there are A lack of votes, the opposition has indicated that it supports the Law and Justice Party in its vote, since it also wants fluid access to the Economic Recovery Fund and its use. Poland, yes wrong I do not remember, it has almost sixty billion. Of course, some are subsidies, others are loans, but in any case they are important sums and that is the main reason why it seems to me that some of the rulers, with the help of the opposition They are still making the necessary decisions so that this process does not get bogged down in Poland, ”said the expert.

It was also seconded by Andrzej Pukszto, Doctor of Science and Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Vytautas Magnus University. “Of course, there is not much consensus in the ruling majority and perhaps the whole dispute over the European Reconstruction Fund is, I would say, more for internal use. And some of those right-wingers who focus on Zbigniewo Ziobro, who heads the Ministry of Justice, they want to show their indifference towards the European Union. “Because the European Union dares to link the disbursement of funds with the demands of justice, with the rule of law,” said the political scientist.

According to the expert, the package would likely be approved based on opposition votes. “But I would continue to think that the approval of this European Union fund will be achieved in the Seimas, because in the worst case scenario, the opposition will help to do it, because now the opposition will not be able to present itself as a Eurosceptic force.” either. Probably, that support will be expressed, but those disagreements in the ruling field remain, but if they will lead to early parliamentary elections, probably not, ”said A. Pukštas.

Poland would expect to receive 58.1 billion. of which € 23.9 billion € 34.2 billion in the form of grants. in the form of loans. Poland will have time to use the funds until 2026.

The money would give the country a “real boost to development,” Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told an economic conference in March. The plans are detailed in the National Reconstruction Plan.

“The prospects for the implementation of the National Reconstruction Plan will depend directly on the money from the Economic Recovery and Resilience-Building Measures, to be agreed, and the additional funds provided by the government,” Morawieckis explained.

Although some opposition parties are holding back, the left-wing coalition on the left seems willing to support the government and prevent money from escaping.

“If this plan is not approved in Poland, it will be rejected throughout the European Union. That money – 250 billion zlotys – for the people and not for Justice and Justice. People should not be punished for having stupid power. “Said Wlodzimierz Czarzasty, leader of the left.

The two political scientists interviewed by Delfi agreed that such statements could be an attempt by the representatives of “United Poland” to stand out in the eyes of the voters, especially in competition with “Justice and Justice” and trying to collect the votes of the Eurosceptic Poles.

“I agree that there may be such a reason. Although the majority, I do not remember exactly how many according to the latest polls, now in Poland the majority of the population supports membership of the European Union and that niche of Eurosceptics is quite narrow. Maybe they want to. grasp that narrow niche of voices. But it is more likely that it will remain a local national policy issue, but will not significantly disrupt the European process, all the more so since the debate on the adoption and enforcement of the rule of law using those funds resumed last year according to France. “They said it was an irrefutable scenario to go ahead without Poland and Hungary if we could not agree on appropriate compromises with these countries,” said R. Vilpišauskas.

“It just came to our attention then. But there has always been a dilemma of” Law and Justice “here, or to leave something else alive, in those journalistic terms, to the border. This is the maneuver here, from the wall to the right, towards the center. That desire to also take a voter from the center right flank and at the same time not leave anyone with those voters who are right next to that right margin. That kind of constant maneuvering is still happening, “said A. Pukštas.

“Another thing, it seems to me that the European Union has no answer at the moment, how to deal with Poland, with Hungary. Of course, the problems of the pandemic are dominating now, other problems, now it is up to Poland and Hungary to find something more difficult, which the European Commission probably will not take either. Last week Prime Minister Morawieckis visited Paris and the visit was quite successful, there was a good conversation with French President E. Macron, who is also looking for additional partners in Europe and trying to talk to the Poles about the future of Europe. “said Vytautas Magnus University doctor.

Another possible motive for such action is the desire of the Polish government to show Brussels the “good” and “bad” policemen during the conflict with the EU – to present “Law and Justice” as a cohesive force and to show that there are much more voices. radicals.

“There may be an opportunity for PiS to show that they may not be as inconvenient for Brussels as United Poland, that they may still be relatively moderate.” I think all the characters here have their own motives and can play multiple games at the same time. As is often the case in the European Union, the domestic political game is overlaid with all kinds of signals to the partners of the European Union. It is probable that the rulers of Poland will also play several games at the same time, ”said R. Vilpišauskas.