After several fiasco – doubts about the fate of the coalition: the most serious tests await in autumn

The association is not the first draft of the Freedom Group that has not yet passed the “filter” of parliament. Earlier, after much criticism, a draft by a member of the group, Justice Minister Evelina Dobrovolska, on the penalties for hate speech was withdrawn.

The initiative to decriminalize the use of drugs on a small scale without distribution purposes, developed by the member of the Freedom Group Morgana Daniel mucha, has received much opposition and is still being discussed in the Seimas committees.

The most serious disagreements in the coalition could occur later.

According to Bernaras Ivanovas, a political scientist at Vytautas Magnus University (VMU), these stories will not make a significant difference in the strength of the coalition.

“I highly doubt that these stories can have a greater meaning for the coalition. Even if the coalition splits, it will not be the association’s circus, or other opportunistic and unsuspecting proposals, but the fight for the budget and finances is a matter of money. This topic could be crucial in the fall. ” Delphi said the expert.

According to him, it is possible that the parties of the ruling coalition at that time simply did not share the financial flows relevant to them. More so, noted B. Ivanov, when one of the leaders of the Freedom Party is an experienced politician Remigijus Šimašius.

“Because of these things, the coalition can collapse and all the other post-values ​​on values. I am very happy to see the debate,” said the VMU political scientist.

The Freedom Party, he said, was on the wrong track to make the partnership project a success.

“If they had wanted it to happen, they would have behaved differently. (…) That strategy was strange, it was probably to cause sharks, noise, make a smoke screen and then stretch all the serious issues in the Seimas ”, considered Ivanov.

The political scientist stressed that, often, in politics, non-moral things are much more important for parties.

“After all, we don’t know in what positions, who is standing and where – where, what is in the middle chain. After all, we don’t know who controls what resources. At the end of the day, when they share positions, they not only share the cabinets of the ministries, but they also share diverse influences and positions in various bureaucratic structures and state institutions, ”he said.

Therefore, according to Ivanov, the coalition should not collapse at this time, although there are disagreements, but the opposition should not be very happy about this, the expert emphasized.

“The opponents rub their hands, which is also an absolutely empty place. The opposition does not fight or try, mock the undergrowth, drop a kind of retort. She stops, now Širinskienė spoke to Dobrovolska, that’s the level of discussion with us. There is no opposition here, “added the political scientist.

Dumbliauskas: Members of the Freedom Group must learn to work as politicians

Vytautas Dumbliauskas, associate professor and political scientist at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), said the Freedom Party should not consider withdrawing from the coalition for the time being.

“And where will they go? Do they really want to go into opposition? – They’ll practically disappear there. I really don’t think I feel like they should stick around and learn. They are all young and have to learn that politics is a compromise, it is a game, a party, you can even play with votes, “said the expert.

He said the Freedom Party should learn from its mistakes and understand how politics should work.

“I think that the Freedom Party should not give up if it wants to do something. Leaving the coalition is practically everything: you go to the shadows and why are you going to be very interesting there?”, Reflects rhetorically V. Dumbliauskas.

However, he did not hide to imagine a scenario in which the Freedom Faction might consider leaving the ruling coalition later, before the next Seimas elections, to be able to freely present its various program proposals.

“2024 yes, I imagine a scenario like this. There are political scientists who have graduated in political science from the Freedom Party, (…) they, I think, know that these things are possible. Then I would believe it, because it would be a purely part of the electoral campaign, and now it would be useless for them, ”said the MRU political scientist.

V. Dumbliauskas said it is difficult to say if there could be more serious disagreements when considering the budget in the fall, but reiterated that the conflicts would be to the detriment of the “liberals” themselves.

“If you get into open conflict, obviously they will lose. They need to realize that some of their suggestions are very early in our society. (…) The vast majority look at those things crookedly, that’s just society. You live in Lithuania and the Lithuanian nation is like this. After five years, the association law would definitely pass without problems, because society is changing, the meaning of marriage is changing, “said the expert.

V. Dumbliauskas pointed out that currently there are many politicians in the Seimas who see the issues of association and decriminalization differently from the liberal representatives of the Freedom Group.

“Everything in society has to mature in time, and the Freedom Party has jumped a bit, perhaps due to its youthful maximalism, after all, this generation may seem different, but we must not forget how many people are older than us. and look different, “he continued.

“They need to do political work through negotiations, compromises, and vote exchanges. Politics is a profession, voting in the Seimas is also part of the profession, you can play there ”, added the political scientist.