After Lukashenko’s threats of revenge, there is a real scenario: how would this react to Lithuania?

Political scientist Liudas Zdanavičius emphasizes that Russia has been putting pressure on Belarus for some time.

“Indeed, for some time now, Russia has been pressuring Belarus to direct its flows to Russian ports. As we know, in 2018, significant discounts were even given, if I am not mistaken, of up to 25 percent, and then 50 percent, in the train fare for the cargo to travel there, but Lukashenko nevertheless avoided it.

We also know the same statements by Putin that Russian oil refined in Belarusian companies should be exported not through the Baltic states, but through Russian ports.

It was promised, but not done. Why? Economic Affairs. Those ports are very far, much further than Klaipeda, even the Latvian ports are a little further away, and another thing is the quality of the services of those ports. Everything is simply more complicated, less elaborate processes, priorities. It’s hard enough dealing with not working there, “the show said. Delphi Day discussed by L. Zdanavičius.

Ensures that there will be no sudden changes

Sigismund Mauricas, chief economist at Luminor Bank, said Lukashenko’s remarks should be treated with caution, but it should not be forgotten that long-term contracts are in place and things are inert, so you don’t have to wait for quick changes or overnight.

“I think you have to take something into account (Lukashenko’s statements). Because we have already heard those threats, not only from Belarus but also from Russia. And, over time, they become a body in one way or another, because in In the past we had a significant flow of Russian cargo, not only we, especially Estonia, Latvia especially last year we felt a decrease in traffic, especially the transportation of coal.

So you don’t have to look through your fingers, but you shouldn’t panic either, because those processes are inert, they don’t actually divert those flows overnight, moreover, long-term contracts are concluded, there would be financial losses for Belarus and Belarusian companies have shares in Klaipeda port companies. management, so if we talk about a certain decrease, it would not be a sudden decrease, but moderate and lasting for several years ”, Ž. Mauricas.

According to him, both Russia and Belarus would do more harm to themselves than to Lithuania in the first place, and they know this very well, and the loud statements that we hear more and more frequently these days are aimed at a certain target audience. .

“The importance is not as great as they say, and they realize. They realize that the “harm” to us would be much less than the harm to themselves, “he added.

Zdanavičius: these are not decisive numbers

According to L. Zdanavičius, such statements or possible solutions would certainly not be fatal, but there is currently a lack of real information on the extent to which such decisions would affect employment.

“Russian practice shows that they apply economic sanctions and are self-inflicted. Elemental gas shutdowns for Ukraine, both in the short and long term, have certainly seriously damaged its reputation.

I think it all depends on the topic, but I would see a fairly important problem in the sense that at least we do not fully see in the public space what the impact could be; yes, we know which part would lose the port, they would lose the railways, but it would be nice to see how, for example, it would be transmitted to workplaces, or how it could be changed.

In any case, I agree that these are not decisive figures, but I hope that our state institutions have made these analyzes, but they can make them public, ”says the interlocutor.

The prospects for Belarus are extremely bleak

When asked what is the real economic situation in Belarus now, Ž. Maurice stressed that the prospects are very sad. And five years from now, the gap between Belarus and the Baltic countries will widen even further.

“Looking back, Belarus was indeed one of the most successful economies in the post-Soviet space, with the possible exception of the Baltic states, or even in certain periods, perhaps even more successful, because those important shock therapies were not carried out. out, and compared to Ukraine, which had a similar economic development, that gap has grown a lot.

But that Belarusian story became increasingly dependent on subsidies from Russia and Russia in general, and it did not modernize fast enough. Especially before the price of oil rose, the Russian economy along with it, so those processes, that internal rot, did not emerge like a mushroom. It only came out after 2014 and it just went everywhere, I was wearing.

Since 2014, we have seen total stagnation in Belarus. (…) The GDP of Lithuania will certainly be equal to the GDP of Belarus this year, although there are three times as many people there, and even in terms of salaries, it is likely to catch up with the Ukrainians, and they really don’t like this scenario. We still don’t see that crisis in Belarus for the most part, because they don’t publish unemployment figures.

There is a crisis. But it is even more profound because the government denies the existence of that crisis. This is the biggest challenge for Belarus and it further infuriates people, the prospects are very bad, because the sanctions against Russia continue “, Ž. Mauricas.

We recall that Mr. Lukashenko said last week that “the more mature countries understand that Belarus is not worth visiting, as it may close the borders to Brest and Grodno and German cargo will not be able to reach the East so easily.” “They gave them the order ‘pult’, and they yelled from behind the fence. This is how I appreciate it, “he said.

Lithuanian leaders emphasize that diverting Belarusian cargo transit from the port of Klaipeda would not be economically profitable, primarily for Belarus itself.