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Šarūnas Tarutis, Head of Investments and Analysis at Citus, says this year was reminiscent of a stepping stone. The beginning of the year was marked by higher monthly records than the others, so it is not surprising that the overall result is staggering. The number of sales registered in this semester (4,829) is almost 2.5 times higher than in the first quarantine (1,990) and 1.5 times higher than in 2019. (3,278).
The result for the quarter is also especially high, with 2,435 new home reservations. This is 4.5 times more than in the same period last year (513) and 1.5 times more than the previous year (1,640). June is also the best of the last three years: this year 484 new apartments and cottages were booked, last year there were 311, last year 385.
“Naturally, in the first month of summer, the market is slowing down a bit – we’ve been watching this for many years. It seems to be the month most people (or at least those who buy a home) are off. Holidays. We observe a very similar low tide every year in December, when people are most interested in preparing for the most beautiful holidays of the year, “explains Š. Tarutis.
For the company, the first half of the year was also one of the most successful in its entire history, although, according to Š. In Tarot, some projects even had to enter sales quotas to manage price increases. However, the result for the first half of this year is 273 homes in Vilnius and Kaunas. In the most successful years of 2019, there were 281 of them (3% more).
A period of chaos has passed, but he predicts a strong second half
“The extremely high pressure situation in the capital’s real estate market, when people bought everything often and we saw one record after another, should lose momentum due to the rapid rise in prices and the no less rapid contraction in supply. I would appreciate that both pressure factors have reached a point where buying becomes too irrational, so we have another starting point from which I expect the market to normalize ”, says the expert.
At the end of June, the new housing stock in Vilnius consisted of 3,898 houses and cottages. Not so low last year or the year before, but also in 2017. The market specialist describes the situation as unenviable: people have almost nothing to choose from. According to his calculations, in the existing warehouse, without a doubt, the absolute majority are projects still in development, which cannot be inspected and “touched” live.
“It just came to our notice then. People set the current market price with a reserve agreement and developers start investing in construction with the confidence of future residents. This is a guarantee for both parties, but more importantly is to choose a reliable developer who will not be able to dive into the bushes in the event of an unexpected market crash. We have seen this in previous quarantines, and now we are seeing cases where even the terms of the framework contracts are changing due to the increase in prices. Large developers who value their reputation and image do not allow such an approach “, advises the interlocutor.
Therefore, there is still a lack of new projects in Vilnius, a new offer that allows to balance prices and meet customer expectations. However, the Citus specialist warns that “loaded” is really a lot of news, which will hit the market in the coming months: developers are ready and announcing releases, the market is ready.
“Combining the current quality housing stock with about a year of freshness and 3-5 new medium or larger projects with at least 1,000 homes, we would have a solid foundation for the first half of the year, which should also be active and well. -elected, “he concludes. Tarutis.
Olympic peace continues in Kaunas
It seems that Kaunas is resistant to any change; here the results remain very stable compared to previous periods. The semi-annual result in the temporary capital is almost identical in 2019. During the first half of the year: this year, 606 new apartments and cottages were booked in Lithuania’s second-largest city, while last year there were 566. The Last year, due to the quarantine, the result was almost twice as modest: 357.
“So the difference is less than 10 percent. Meanwhile, compared to the Vilnius real estate market, the difference has already increased eightfold, although a couple of years ago the difference was about 4-5 times”, calculates the expert.
During the second quarter, 287 homes were booked in Kaunas (160 in 2020, 256 in 2019), of which 93 in June.
