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A. Duda, backed by the conservative ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, raised about 41.8 percent. votes, according to a survey carried out by the Ipsos sociological research agency.
Reuters / Scanpix photo / Rafal Trzaskowski
His main rival, Rafal Trzaskowski, who promises to resolve disagreements with the European Union, was second with around 30.4 percent. votes, but can still count on the support of other opposition candidates until the second round on July 12.
“I will be a candidate for change!” Trzaskowski said on election night, speaking on the redesigned Warsaw power grid.
Trzaskowski, 48, backed by the Civic Platform (PO) party, called on him to support voters “who want an open Poland, not Poland, always looking for enemies.”
The election was due in May, but had to be postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic.
However, voters were very active and waited in the ranks of the polling stations, using rules of social distance, masks or protective shields.
Voter turnout was 62.9 percent.
The decisive moment
Duda is considered an important ally of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, and received his support a few days earlier after visiting Washington and becoming the first foreign leader to visit the White House since the pandemic began.
However, fears were voiced in Brussels about Duda’s support for the controversial reform of the Polish judiciary, critics say, threatening democracy.
Experts disagree on who will win the second round of elections next month.
Kazimierz Kik, professor of political science at Jan Kochanowski University in southern Kielce, Poland, said Duda had “more potential” than Trzaskowski to mobilize voters who did not vote last Sunday.
But Stanislaw Mocek, head of the Collegium Civitas in Warsaw, predicted that Trzaskowski had a “good chance” of winning the second round.
Mozek also warned of a possible “brutal campaign” if Duda tries to please far-right voters, whose candidate also appears to have done well in Sunday’s vote.
“Now is the crucial moment. Much will depend on this decision,” said Lech Walesa, an icon of the fight against the Polish communist regime, which cast its vote in the northern port city of Gdansk.
Erik Ovcharenko / 15min photo / Lech Walesa
Wales, who became the first democratically elected president in Poland in 1990, has vehemently criticized the current PiS government.
For democracy
The election campaign was dominated by concerns about the weakening of democracy and day-to-day economic concerns as Poland faced the threat of its first recession since the collapse of the communist regime.
“Of course, I voted for Trzaskowski. Why? For democracy, the judiciary and respect for minorities,” said Joanna Ugniewska, 66, who cast her vote in a school district in central Warsaw.
However, in the southern city of Tarnów, in the PiS fortress, voter Andrzej Guzikas said he would vote for Duda for his continued leadership.
“Personally, I only see Duda as president,” said A. Guzikas, 52, who works for the state-owned gas company PGNIG.
In recent years, the Polish government has introduced popular social benefit schemes. Trzaskowski promised to stay with them if he won the election.
LGBT ideology
Duda’s victory would consolidate PiS power at least until the next regular parliamentary elections in 2023.
However, its defeat could weaken the influence of the ruling and lead to early elections.
Reuters / Scanpix photo / Rafal Trzaskowski
During the campaign, Duda fueled controversy by subordinating PiS’s rhetoric against the western rights and values of the LGBT + community.
According to the president, “LGBT ideology” is equivalent to a new form of communism.
Trzaskowski, for his part, supports gay rights and says he is open to the idea of a same-sex civil society.
The liberal candidate, whose campaign slogan “Pretty means enough”, has promised to create a different Poland.
However, critics say his party is weak and ineffective, and his work as mayor is not particularly welcome.
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