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However, even these figures do not reflect the full diversity of rainfall distribution. For example, at the Šiauliai weather station on June 8. 5.5 mm of precipitation was measured in 2006, although photos and videos published in the newspapers show that in some areas of the city, the precipitation was higher than 10 mm per hour.
Similarly in Vilnius: Vilnius weather station on June 9. recorded 13 mm of precipitation, although it was possible to see reports of very heavy rains from different districts of Vilnius on the Youtube channel, and an amateur weather station in the village of Dvarykščiai (about 300 m west of Lake Salotė) recorded up to 45mm of precipitation per day.
There was little shortage of meeting the criteria for a natural meteorological phenomenon. Such an unevenness of the precipitation field is not an important meteorological or climatic anomaly, but rather indicates the location of the foci of intense precipitation and the globular rain clouds that form them. Of course, large-scale factors are also indispensable. The weather was affected by an immobile low pressure, low pressure area over Ukraine and Central Russia, which was left from Cyclone Black (and Azov) in active regeneration. In the upper part of the troposphere there is a wide valley above this residual cyclone, and in the lower troposphere this area gradually fills with warm and humid air.
These large-scale hydrothermal conditions (which include eastern and part of central Lithuania) result in high atmospheric volatility, relatively large amounts of available convective energy (CAPE), and convergence of moisture to the earth’s surface. Atmospheric volatility is further aggravated in the mornings, when rising convective currents disrupt the holding layers overnight.
Then powerful spherical clouds quickly form and torrential rains fall. The intensity of convective flows is strongly influenced by local conditions: topography, vegetation, thermal and physical barriers (densely urbanized neighborhoods and their change with green areas and bodies of water), exposure of slopes to predominant transport, etc. Under favorable local conditions, the CAPE energy increases to 1000 J / kg and more in the afternoon, spherical clouds develop rapidly in the vertical direction and heavy rains fall.
Another characteristic of such conditions is that they are favorable not only for heavy local rains, but also for local hail, thunderstorms, or even severe slag. If the CAPE energy increases to 2500 J / kg (this occurs when it invades a humid air mass of tropical origin), and the atmospheric volatility is caused not only by the conditions described above, but also by an atmospheric front with high thermal contrasts and humidity, probability.
On Friday, the volatile air mass with short rains was still over most of Lithuania, from Samogitia to eastern Lithuania, but the situation changed the following night. The former field of small gradients so far with prevailing weak winds will move to the east and will be replaced by an active barley valley with a cold atmospheric front from the west.
Therefore, on Saturday night, the wind will gradually turn from the southeast and strengthen, and on Saturday afternoon (in the western part, in the afternoon) as the front passes, the wind will turn to the west , northwest and will increase. Before the front is folded, the air may heat up to 21-27 ° C in some places, after which the weather will temporarily cool down. As this front will move more slowly over Lithuania as it moves east and southeast, it will fall to 20-30 mm in places of precipitation, mainly, most likely, in the southern, central and eastern parts of Lithuania.
On Sunday, Lithuania will continue to be behind this front, where a mass of cool and humid air will prevail, so in many places short-lived rains are possible, in places with thunderstorms.
The sunniest will continue to be the seashore, and air temperatures will range from 20 ° C in the extreme west and places in the central part to 13-18 ° C in the eastern part of the country. Starting Monday, the Central European anticyclone crest will expand into the eastern part of the Baltic region, the rain will stop, and average and maximum air temperatures will rise.
In the middle and second half of the week, the blockade anticyclone will intensify again over northern Russia and with its circulatory system it will begin to extract air from the steppes of southern Russia. Therefore, the maximum daily temperature in Lithuania will reach 25-30 ° C in some places. Moist air is expected again late next week, but the weather will remain warm. According to long-term weather forecasts, the warmest and relatively drier weather in Lithuania will last until the beginning of July.
