Poland after the triumph of the right: which line will A. Duda take without the support of moderate voters?

It is not very difficult for reviewers on Monday to repeat what has been seen for several years: that Polish society is very divided. This presidential election proved it once again.

Duda, supported by the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS), the Church and state media that has become a government tool, received the support of just over half of voters on Sunday, according to statistics, less educated and older voters in small towns and villages.

Trzaskowski, in turn, received more votes from metropolitan residents, youth, and citizens concerned about undemocratic reforms. And although the opposition candidate did very well, not all of those votes were enough.

The stick in evaluating PiS’s actions in Poland is often overstated, but now many Poles are debating what other changes conservatives wishing to further consolidate their power will make. What could be the role of A. Duda?

Commitment is already difficult

“The mobilization of the electorate was really enormous. Both sides explained about the civilization options that these elections have been the most important since 1989.

I think it will be very difficult for the losing party to reconcile psychologically with the outcome of that choice for at least a few days. ” fifteenmin explained Marijuš Antonovič, political scientist at the Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences of the Vilnius University.

The expert does not rule out the possibility that the results of the vote will be contested in court, but that if A. Duda’s advantage reaches several hundred thousand votes, such challenges would not be successful.

Two Poles? According to Antonovich, this is definitely the case, and the division of the country will certainly not recede. Suppose the Transcarpathian Voivodeship, a PiS stronghold, and the Western Pomeranian Voivodeship, organized by the opposition Citizen Platform, are completely different.

“The social situation there is fundamentally different: how many single children are there, how many divorces, how many people go to church, how do they see homosexuals. The differences are huge, these are two absolutely different societies, “said M. Antonovič.

According to the analyst, this is the reason why studies have already appeared in Poland, which propose to substantially decentralize the country, so that individual voivodships can decide on abortions, same-sex marriages.

“Some researchers admit that it is impossible to find a compromise at the national level,” said Antonovič.

Antonovich: It will be very difficult for the losing party to reconcile psychologically with the result of that election for at least a few days.

On the other hand, Dominik Wilczewski, journalist for the Polish publication Przeglad Baltycki, who writes about the Baltic States. 15 minutes He stated that the myth that the western part of the country is very progressive and that the east and southeast are conservative is no longer entirely accurate.

“We have known for several years that society is divided,” showed the results of previous elections. Decomposition is now even deeper.

But the image is now more complicated. If we go into the election results at a smaller level, it would turn out that small villages or towns also voted for Duda in the west. In this case, indicators such as age, education, social status are more important, “said D. Wilczewski.

Many Poles think only of their own well-being

Representatives of PiS and A. Duda tried to talk a lot during the electoral campaign about the supposed LGBT ideology, which is even worse than communism, in recent days, the Jews who supposedly learned against Poland were also hampered.

But while the rhetoric was extremely grim and the threats obviously non-existent or inflated, Duda still won. Does that mean you can say anything, even the scariest things, as long as it guarantees success?

“Yes, the opposition and some commentators have been very critical of such a narrative created by PiS. The objective seems to really justify the measures.

There have been calls to apologize for such rhetoric. On Monday night, Duda only apologized to people who were offended, but emphasized that he would not retract his statements; Such speeches are likely to continue.

D. Wilczewski: Many people, like independent courts, civil rights, equality before the law, the rule of law are too abstract.

On the other hand, although the propaganda, and on state television, was brutal, the domain over Trzaskowski was very small. After all, two-thirds of voters did not vote for Duda, “said D. Wilczewski.

According to him, it is possible that many wives voted for A. Duda not for propaganda, but for other reasons, for example, for a really improved life. The state now pays 500 zlotys for each child, higher and pensions, other social benefits.

“Many people like things like independent courts, citizens’ rights, equality before the law, the rule of law is too abstract. Such Poles think of economic prosperity.

It can be said that many people now vote for PiS who now feel much more worthy than before in a personal sense.

They believe that it was PiS who restored their dignity, and many years ago they felt left out: the economy was growing, but their pockets were not shrinking. And PiS, according to those people, helped and cared for them. ” 15 minutes D. Wilczewski stated.

Trying to get revenge on the media?

For his part, Antonovič recalls that both Polish politicians and citizens understand that the country’s future “is only with the European Union” and that it does not Polexite unimaginable yet.

“It just came to our attention then. Kaczynski and most PiS leaders perceive democracy in the 19th century. Late 20th century. Starting categories: We win and do what we want. Kaczynski is especially important here: just think about internal politics.

He does not believe that his actions could have consequences for international politics.

Therefore, I think there will be attempts to further consolidate the conservative government, especially since Kaczynski is well aware that this is the last chance for him to implement his so-called revolution, “said Antonovič.

So far, the rulers are retaliating. One of the PiS representatives, the Deputy Minister of State Property, Janusz Kowalski, has already announced on Twitter his desire to “re-colonize” the Polish media: the rulers did not like the critical publication about A. Duda.

“We really should expect further reforms: with the courts, there will also be attempts to take revenge on the media, and a cut in self-government powers is likely to be planned, threatening a major conflict,” said a VU TSPMI expert.

On the other hand, PiS will probably be more cautious internationally, since Duda is not Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, “who is not interested in criticism.”

Further reforms should definitely be expected: with the courts, there will also be attempts to exact revenge on the media, and there are likely plans to cut the power of self-government, which threatens a major conflict.

“Poland has great ambitions, and the opinion of the United States is very important to the country.” Poland is actively cooperating with France in tax evasion on the high seas and with Germany in enlargement of the EU in the Balkans.

Foreign policy in Poland is inconsistent and difficult to reconcile with domestic policy, “said the analyst, noting that J. Kaczynski, unlike A. Duda or Prime Minister Mateusz Morawieckis, does not think about the consequences of his actions in the Foreign.

For example, no matter how PiS wants to curb independent media, the plans are likely to backfire on the American opposition, since at least the main commercial TV TVN, which is critical of the rulers, is controlled by the American company. Discovery.

What are A. Duda’s plans?

Antonovič also noted that A. Duda had no revelations for moderate voters during these elections: he simply defeated as a canonical conservative: “They (PiS and A.Duda, ed.) Did not seek moderate voters and went directly to the base. “

“And since the Citizen Platform has also proven to be very good, the opposition may conclude that there is no need to play with all kinds of things.” holowniomis – vote in favor platform.

There are already opinions that the “Citizen Platform” should be like PiS, so everything leads to further fragmentation, “said Antonovič.

He thinks a very important question about A. Duda’s future: that after the end of his second term as president, “he will have to do something.”

“It cannot be ruled out that Duda tries to become Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s successor and lead PiS.” This is another factor that could mean that Duda won’t even try to find compromises and will try to identify with the party.

What kind of leader do you imagine yourself to be? Do you want the PiS to continue to radicalize, or are you thinking of the dream of some PiS members to make the party look like the German Christian Democrats?

Yes, Duda won’t have to fight for reelection, so it seems to encourage him to distance himself from the party. But if he wants to take Kaczynski’s place, political ambitions will remain in PiS, “said Antonovič.

Doubt you want the PiS to continue radicalizing, or are you thinking about the dream of some PiS members to make the party look like the German Christian Democrats?

Wilczewski sees two possible scenarios, but doesn’t dare guess which one is more realistic.

“Under the first scenario, everyone realizes that the elections are still a long way off, that there is no need to constantly mobilize voters and that there is a kind of peace and quiet.” Rulers are simply ruling and are not looking for narratives that can further divide Poland.

After all, what has been desired has been achieved, for example, the courts are more or less controlled.

On the other hand, PiS has consolidated power, controls key institutions, and can therefore turn to new initiatives. This can be an obstacle for both the media and local government, especially in those voivodships where EU money is more. ” 15 minutes D. Wilczewski said.

According to the observer, much will depend on the procedure for appointing a new Polish ombudsman. This official is appointed by the Seimas, but approved by the Senate, and in the latter the majority has the opposition, as if a compromise was necessary. Whether it will be found is not clear.