Finish directly behind the wall: another five years A. Doubt or fresh blood of R. Trzaskowski?

Probably the best accumulation of tension in this election week was witnessed on Monday night when the candidates participated in a separate debate. A. Duda argued with the seat of an empty competitor on the state TVP and R. Trzaskowski, on the air of the TVN commercial.

Some commentators point out that such a division proves the existence of two fundamentally different Poles, and ask how the country will have to live next week, already after the elections.

The truth of what they will finish is likely to be clear not on Monday night, and especially not after receiving the generally accurate voter polls on Sunday night.

How 15 minutes According to Andrzej Pukszto, a political scientist at Vytautas Magnus University, it seems that both A.Duda and R.Trzaskowski will get approximately the same number of votes, so the winner may be determined by a very small advantage.

Poles actively vote abroad

“In fact, the Poles organize many polls, and not all show a winner. Some show 1.5-2 percent. Duda leads on points, others that Trzaskowski wins,” taught A. Pukszto.

And, in fact, several voter polls conducted from July 8 to 9 testify to a slight advantage from either candidate. According to Kantar, 45.9 percent will vote for A. Dudas, and 46.4 percent will vote for R. Trzaskowski. voters, another 7.7 percent. supposedly undecided.

According to Pollster, A. Duda already leads, as well as according to the “Indicator”. But IBRIS and the PGB Opinium again show the dominance of R. Trzaskowski.

“It just came to our attention then. For the first time in Polish history, even a poll of voters may not show a winner, although this poll is usually very accurate and of very high quality.

Polish law allows dual citizenship, so even people who long ago left the country or are political exiles and their descendants are very active in voting.

It is usually a mistake, but now that there are a lot of votes in the mail, it may be necessary to wait until Tuesday to get the results. ” 15 minutes A.Pukszto explained.

Furthermore, unlike Lithuania, a large number of Poles vote abroad. Polish law allows dual citizenship, so even people who long ago left the country or are political exiles and their descendants are very active in voting.

Those who voted in the first round do not need additional registration. But between the first and the second round of Polish diplomatic missions, he received another 150,000. Additional requests to register people for elections.

“Despite the fact that he is on vacation now, voter turnout is expected to be even higher than in the first round, although there are significantly more voters voting on this than in previous elections,” said A. Pukszto.

Foreign policy doesn’t care

Duda went to Washington before the first round of the presidential election, where the President of the United States, Donald Trump, expressed his support for him. Perhaps the American Poles, who are very numerous on the other side of the Atlantic, were so encouraged to vote for Duda? After all, they generally support Republicans in elections in the United States.

“I would not value the visit, I would even think that Duda would have achieved more if he had spent those two days in Poland.” After all, foreign policy is hardly ever one of the most important issues for citizens during such elections, “said A. Pukszto.

Admittedly, he recognized that American Poles are really conservative, so their voices may be important, especially to Duda: “In the United States, they vote for Republicans, for example, in 2016, they supported Trump.”

“On the other hand, if we talk about the Polish communities in Europe: Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Trzaskowski clearly defeated him in the first round.”

A.Pukszto: Duda talks about polishness, national self-awareness, values, and his opponent emphasizes the idea of ​​an open state.

In addition, the opposition has been quite successful in bombing Duda’s stay in Washington: People have been criticized because, in Poland, presidents traditionally have not made any major visits before the elections. ” 15 minutes A.Pukszto stated.

According to the expert, national politics and ideological and value problems dominate during the electoral campaign.

“Duda is trying to present himself as the right, and Trzaskowski is trying to present himself as a far-reaching liberal. We should be talking here about attitudes toward marriage, abortion, social support.

Duda talks about polishness, national self-awareness, values, and her opponent emphasizes the idea of ​​an open state, “explained A. Pukszto.

Candidates are already tired, especially A. Duda

How have the candidates behaved in the last days? Different to. R. Doubt, although he should find a little more voters and, therefore, secure a victory, he does not engage in any course of strict conservatism.

In an interview with Gazeta Polska Codzienna on Friday, A. Duda assured that the well-being of the country’s families, both economic and social, is the most important thing for him.

In addition, the president proposed to form a coalition, which could consist of the center and the far-right political forces: the Law and Justice Party (PiS), the far-right “Confederation” and the “Kukiz’15” movement. According to Duda, this would be a “coalition of Polish interests”.

And while PiS immediately clarified that Duda’s idea does not mean a formal proposal for a coalition, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawieckis soon warned that in the event of Trzaskowski’s victory, Poland would expect a “giant escalation” of the political conflict.

As early as Monday, Duda caused a small scandal when he claimed he would not support mandatory coronavirus vaccination. He even added that he has never been vaccinated against the common flu, and analysts believe the president wants to seduce libertarians and right-wing radicals with that comment.

“I think Duda is really tired and doesn’t keep up with the tension. O tas antiviral The comment was a mistake.

Duda caused a small scandal when she said she did not support mandatory coronavirus vaccination.

It also hurt him and the headlines about the grace granted to the person accused of pedophilia, although in this case the stick was also bent by the opposition. After all, Duda is certainly not some kind of pedophile defender (15 minutes wrote about this scandal, – ed.)

But in fact, you can see that the candidates are a little tired, because the campaign is very tense, “argued A. Pukszto.

Will the Poles believe in R. Trzaskowski?

Trzaskowski, however, is trying to draw voters’ attention to the fact that it means change, as well as the fact that in the first round, in theory, most citizens did not vote for Duda, but for the change.

“I understand that you are driven by patience with constant fighting. We need to look to the future. I am ready to cooperate, because it is important for us to learn to talk to each other again, ”said the Mayor of Warsaw.

On the other hand, as predicted, the opposition candidate is trying to attract as many voters as possible, which means that he does not want to take completely liberal positions. For example, it actively supports the rights of the LGBT community, but recently emphasized that it does not support the right of same-sex couples to adopt.

Trzaskowski also said he would be “absolutely ready to participate” in the controversial Independence Day march, which is organized annually in Warsaw by far-right groups.

Finally, he confirmed that he would not sign a law to compensate Jews who had lost property in Poland. The state TVP is trying to convince the Poles that R. Trzaskowski wants to take 200 billion. zlotys and give this money to the Jews.

“The task for Trzaskowski is much more complicated than for Duda. After all, it was only once that the candidate who took second place after the first round finally won, then Lech Kaczynski defeated Donald Tusk.

The situation is quite complicated. Trzaskowski needs to attract more voters, and Duda only needs to keep what he has. Much will depend on whether undecided voters trust Trzaskowski, because it is not very easy for Duda to increase the electorate. ” 15 minutes A.Pukszto said.

According to the analyst, A. Duda “has a bigger negative electorate,” so if R. Trzaskowski doesn’t make big mistakes at the last minute, he will definitely have a chance to win.