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At the same time, he orders a raid on a Russian-run bank whose former boss intends to challenge him in the upcoming elections.
Such circumstances cause Putin a real headache in his “backyard”; Lukashenko is almost certain that he will be re-elected president for the sixth term in August and threatens to free up the country’s strategically important relations with Russia.
“Past relations are gradually falling apart, and Lukashenko is expected to receive encouragement from outside the country,” said Gleb Pavlovsky, a former Kremlin adviser. Although Lukashenko is becoming a “constant stimulus for Russia”, “Belarus is very important and Moscow simply cannot afford to lose it,” he said.
Rising tensions show that since Russia separated Crimea from Ukraine and raised questions about regional security, Putin has found it increasingly difficult to maintain relations even with close allies. Bordering Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, all members of NATO, Belarus risk becoming Putin’s ultimate target in the geopolitical struggle with the West.
Lukashenko is used to playing on both sides of the confrontation, in order to gain sufficient independence to maintain his authoritarian rule in the country with 9.4 million. population. However, tensions may be higher than usual this time, as the collapse in oil prices weakens Russia’s appeal as an ally.
Relations with Lukashenko are deteriorating as the United States and its allies are trying to break the gap between Minsk and Moscow, and Belarus is being pushed into a fight for influence, a Kremlin official said.
Belarus is already processing the original 80,000. tons (586 thousand barrels) of a batch of US crude oil, which was delivered to a Lithuanian port by an oil tanker in early June, is his first purchase of oil from the United States. In February this year, US Secretary of State Micke Pompeo met with Lukashenko, a senior US official who had visited Belarus since President Bill Clinton’s visit in 1994, and promised him that the United States could deliver a ” 100 percent”. essential oil prices for you. “
At the time, Lukashenko publicly accused Moscow of pressing him on political reunification in exchange for cheap oil supplies, after Russia cut oil supplies by three quarters over a price dispute. Pompeo told him that Belarus “should not be forced to depend on any partner for the sake of its prosperity or security.”
However, Putin has strong levers that allow him to tighten the reins and keep Lukashenko out of his reach. Although the oil supply volumes were 65 percent. Less than a year ago, Russia still supplied the country with 1.6 million in the first three months of 2020. tons of oil; By the way,. Belarus’ economy depends heavily on exports of equipment and food to its larger neighbor. In addition, Belarus has repeatedly requested loans from Russia to help the country meet its financial needs; both sides also conduct joint military exercises.
Coronavirus reaction
Lukashenko’s response to the coronavirus epidemic has further irritated the Kremlin. After Russia closed its borders and Putin imposed national quarantine in March, Lukashenko said “it was better to die on your feet than to kneel down.”
When the rapid spread of the infection forced Putin to postpone the May 9 military parade to mark the 75th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Hitler’s Germany, Lukashenko held a commemoration ceremony in his country, declaring that ” those who died would be extradited. “
Lukashenko, 65, has been sitting firmly in the presidency since 1994, when he assumed command of power, suppressing any resistance. He accuses critics of funding the protests in Russia before approaching August 9. and hinted at foreign support for his main rivals, the banker and the popular YouTube blogger.
Recently, he personally instructed state security officials to investigate the activities of the Belarusian branch of Russia’s Gazprombank, and at least fifteen people were arrested.
Viktor Babarika ran Belgazprombank for twenty years until he stepped down in May to challenge Lukashenko. After a bank search on suspicion of tax evasion and money laundering, he accused the government of “being determined to use any means to avoid fair elections.”
Gazprombank and Gazprom called the executive arrests an illegal attempt to usurp power from a credit institution and promised in a joint statement to defend their rights.
Babarika does not receive money from the Kremlin and acts independently, but after deciding to oppose Putin, he discussed his plans to stand for election with Russian officials, two Moscow sources said he was familiar with the situation.
Babarika, who promised to implement free market reforms to reduce the country’s dependence on external support, told Bloomberg in an interview without discussing his candidacy with any Russian official, adding that according to foreign law, any foreign aid during the elections is illegal.
Expulsion of the opposition.
Lukashenko’s relations with the United States and the European Union are far from easy. Both the United States and the EU have tightened sanctions against Belarus after presidential security forces arrested opposition leaders and defeated protesters during the 2010 presidential election.
The President of the United States, Donald Trump, has extended the United States sanctions on Lukashenko and some other Belarusian officials for a year. These sanctions were first imposed in 2006 as a result of political repression and the “largely undemocratic” elections. However, the United States and Belarus agreed last year to exchange ambassadors, for the first time in more than a decade.
Russia may be expecting a similar scenario this time, as Belarus cracks down on its political rivals, thus touching the rapprochement with the West, says Pavlovsky, who served as a Kremlin adviser between 2000 and 2011.
“She cannot overthrow Lukashenko, at least not now,” he said. – But looking for ways to complicate your life.
Russia’s tough stance on oil prices, which it discussed in January, has now turned against itself. The Belarusian leader is taking steps to reduce the country’s dependency by turning to other providers, including Azerbaijan and Saudi Arabia.
‘A. “Lukashenko sees the oil price war as punishment and he no longer wants to be pushed,” said Artyom Shraibman, founder of the Minsk-based political consulting firm Sense Analytics. “Belarus and Russia have entered the deepest crisis in twenty-five years.”
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