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Voter turnout was a record 64.4 percent. citizens with the right to vote voted. It is clear that the main candidates have managed to mobilize their followers.
The final results show that A. Duda managed to secure almost 44 percent and R. Trzaskowski, just over 30 percent. votes.
They both made it to the second round, which traditionally means trying to get the support of the candidates who left the fight.
Numbers, percentages, probabilities.
In Poland, the opposition between conservative and more liberal political forces that has become apparent in recent years will continue. Trzaskowski promises to veto any supposedly authoritarian initiative by the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS), if he wins, of course.
In fact, this is possible because PiS does not have enough seats in parliament to circumvent the presidential veto.
Scanpix / AP Photo / Rafal Trzaskowski
In turn, A. Duda, who needs to find at least 7-8 percent before the second round. additional votes as soon as he emphasizes his close ties to PiS, from which he officially resigned.
“Today, the situation is very clear: Poland will continue to develop or stop. I guarantee that it will retain what it has received so far,” said Duda, who is seeking reelection.
In mind, you clearly have generous PiS social programs. The rulers have lowered the retirement age and assigned a supplement of 500 zlotys (112 euros) for children, all of which has greatly increased the popularity of conservatives.
A. Doubt: “Today the situation is very clear: Poland will continue to develop or will stop. I guarantee that you will keep what you have received so far. “
Even R. Trzaskowski promises to keep these programs, only to “link” them to the vision of a more liberal country: “This is not just a fight between Duda and Trzaskowski. It is a fight between an open Poland and Poland in search of an enemy” .
Duda talked to his fans about a solid victory, but he actually hoped to win in the first round. It was precisely the change in the opposition candidate of the opposition “Platform of Citizens” (PP), the R. Trzaskowski campaign, that was most aggressive and successful.
But what happens now? Trzaskowski certainly has a chance, especially if many political rookies will vote for him, third with 13.3 percent. Szymon Holownia’s supporters, who took votes. But the latter will not necessarily vote unanimously in favor of the PP candidate.
Reuters / Scanpix Photo / Symmon Holownia
For his part, A. Duda needs the votes of supporters of the nationalist Krzysztof Bosak, who represented 7.4 percent. The current president already reiterated on Sunday that his views and those of K. Bosak coincide in many cases, although officially they will probably not receive any support.
A. Duda softens the rhetoric?
There were opinions that Duda would win in the first round, 15 minutes said Dominik Wilczewski, a journalist for the Polish publication Przeglad Baltycki, who writes about the Baltic States.
“It just caught our eye then, but Duda’s official leadership was slightly higher than announced on Sunday night.” This means that Duda only needs 5-6 percent. before the second round, “said Wilczewski, who currently believes that the current president has every chance of remaining in office.
According to the journalist, Duda’s harshest rhetoric before the first round of the elections, when he started talking about the alleged LGBT propaganda, seemed to work.
AFP / Scanpix Photo / Andrzej Duda
“Furthermore, voters in smaller cities and towns, as well as people dependent on social benefits, have calculated that it would be more favorable to them if power continued to be concentrated in the hands of one party. Then they voted for Duda.
Such voters do not want paralysis in Warsaw. After all, Trzaskowski would actually veto some of the bills. ” 15 minutes D. Wilczewski stated.
Is it possible that R. Trzaskowski wins? According to D. Wilczewski, “they are waiting two weeks for a very furious and brutal electoral campaign: there will be compromises and all kinds of registrations.”
Sigismund Gedvila / 15min photo / Dominikas Wilczewskis
“On the other hand, Duda is already trying to soften the rhetoric. He congratulated both Trzaskowski and other opponents.” He knows that now he has to please a wider circle of voters and get more votes, from the right, the extreme right, the liberals and the extreme left, “said Wilczewski.
D. Wilczewski: “Hollywood voters are not so disappointed with PiS, but with the” Citizen Platform. “It will not be easy for Trzaskowski to get those citizens back.”
Holownia has already said that she will not vote for Duda, but this does not necessarily mean that Holownia’s voters are running for Trzaskowski en masse.
“Halloween voters are not as disappointed with PiS as they are with the Citizen Platform.” “It will not be easy for Trzaskowski to return those citizens,” said the journalist.
LGBT Card Games
Marijuš Antonovič, political scientist at the Institute for International Relations and Political Science, Vilnius University. 15 minutes He said he highlighted three main aspects of the first round of the Polish presidential election.
“The results reflect the real situation in the country, which is dominated by two large parties. Secondly, the PiS now has a much larger and broader electoral base than the PP, as a consequence of social policy.
Thirdly, the very poor performance of Wladyslaw Kosiniako-Kamysz, a peasant candidate (President of the Union of Polish Pro-European Peasants). What has always happened has happened: peasants received significantly fewer votes in the presidential elections than in parliament.
After all, Kosiniakas-Kamyszs was able to travel to the second round in April or May, according to the polls, but that did not happen, ”stated M. Antonovič.
Lukas Balandis / 15min photo / 15min in the study – political scientist Marijuš Antonovič
He sees a great intrigue before the second round of the elections: “The gap between the candidates is very small. Also, Duda has a much smaller reserve to attract votes, basically just Bosak voters.
Trzaskowski, meanwhile, can count on the voices of Hollywood supporters. Admittedly, he needs a lot of extra support, so for now I’d say a little favorite is Duda. Of course, both camps realize that they are waiting for two weeks of struggle. “
Antonovich: “Trzaskowski will intimidate Dutch PiS voters and allegedly destabilize Poland, and Duda will have to intimidate Bosak supporters on LGBT issues.”
Antonovič does not rule out the possibility that the rhetoric may now escalate further, especially by Duda and PiS.
“The voters of the only Biedron will vote for Trzaskowski because they hate PiS. But others don’t like the two big parties, so it’s just that. for will not vote for one of the candidates unless against.
Trzaskowski will intimidate Dutch PiS voters and allegedly destabilize Poland, while Duda will have to intimidate Bosak supporters on the LGBT issue. He spoke on the radio again on LGBT on Monday morning.
That seems to be the only way. Bosak voters don’t like PiS, which he calls socialist, so Duda can attract those citizens only by intimidating LGBT cards: child sexualization, propaganda, etc. ” 15 minutes The political scientist claimed.
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