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As previously announced, the EU announced on Wednesday that it plans to tighten visa requirements for Belarusian officials in response to Minsk’s “instrumentalization” of the flow of illegal immigrants and pressure on the bloc’s external borders.
The proposed restrictions would complement sanctions already imposed by the EU on Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenko and his 165 immediate aides, including a travel ban on all 27 EU member states.
The decision would apply only to members of official delegations, representatives of national and regional authorities and parliament, judges of the Constitutional Court and the Supreme Court when in office, ELTA wrote.
These individuals will again be required to provide additional documents proving the purpose of the trip and the fee to process the visa application would no longer be reduced.
Ordinary Belarusian citizens will not be affected by this proposal and will continue to benefit from the visa facilitation agreement.
It is difficult to say how effective the sanctions will be.
Professor at Vilnius University, Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences (VU TSPMI) doc. Dr. Laurynas Jonavičius said that it is difficult to say from public information how effective the new sanctions will be.
“The answer to the question depends on how often those officials travel to Europe in general, which is hard to say. I don’t know what those additional documents are on the purpose, the heck, in the details. Also, an increase price, if I’m not mistaken, that visa is 80 euros.
In principle, this would make it more difficult for them to travel to Europe, or it would be a problem that would force them to rethink their position vis-à-vis the regime, (…) it could, but perhaps it is large enough, and the question of whether these costs would be offset by such a restriction travel, ”said L. Jonavičius.
Negotiating sanctions is an unpredictable process
It is true that so far these plans are silent on the extension of sectoral sanctions.
“When the fourth package was adopted, everyone was already happy that sectoral sanctions had been adopted. But if we look at those sanctions in detail, they are not valid the other way around, the main types of trade do not include fertilizers, it is also quite a panorama. sad.
It is a consensus consensus on what is good and what is a joy, because at least we have been able to advance something, but I am sure that it can be agreed again to include additional types of potash fertilizers in the sanctions, but if something will be achieved more is very difficult. say “, – said L. Jonavičius.
The political scientist explained that the negotiation of sanctions is an unpredictable process because it involves all 27 states, they have individual interests and there are people in those states who benefit from the relationship and have the influence to put pressure on the governments.
In addition, five or six of them are interested in Belarus, for others it is other aspects that often determine their position towards Belarus. This is not something that only worries us in Lithuania and Poland, ”said L. Jonavičius.
So far, there are no calls to speak to Lukashenko.
So far, at least, there are no voices in Europe calling for a strong appeal for Lukashenko.
“It just came to our knowledge then. Mr. Lukashenko is hinting here, but that doesn’t seem like a way, a solution.” Probably there will be no such talk, but probably because he won’t talk to Lukashenko, he won’t start thinking about how to change his politics here, “commented L. Jonavičius.
The political scientist pointed out that there are also difficulties in this situation.
“Then the possibility arises that A. Lukashenko and perhaps even the West will have to talk more and more with Russia, which again means that the possibility of changing events according to a favorable scenario for him is not very great,” said L Jonavičius.
The mode tries to divert attention from internal problems.
The political scientist pointed out that there is currently a regime maintained by force in Belarus that is looking for all possible ways to further divert attention from the internal problems of Belarus, creating crises such as the migration crisis, trying to put the Ukraine issue back on track. the agenda.
“During the Zapad exercise, Lukashenko shouted very loudly about the threat and danger to Ukraine, again trying to divert attention from its internal problems,” Jonavičius said.
At the same time, the political scientist pointed out that even in the West there is still no political will, enough influence and a united interest and consensus on how to deal with Belarus.
“In addition, there is the Russian factor, which is also very specific, on the one hand, it allows the regime to maintain itself, to survive, on the other hand, it also has its own interests and objectives, and there Lukashenko’s survival is not the only one. option under consideration at Maxwa, “explained L. Jonavičius.
Sanctions: a reaction to the actions of the regime
Introducing the proposed new sanctions, Internal Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson said the measure was aimed at curbing “this new phenomenon of state-sponsored smuggling.”
According to her, Lukashenko “is trying to destabilize the EU by bringing immigrants, facilitating them and pushing them to cross the border into the European Union.”
He is “desperate; he is really affected by the economic sanctions and the sanctions that the Europeans imposed on him,” Johansson said.
EU pressure has stopped flights from Iraq to Belarus carrying migrants, but Johansson told reporters that Lukashenko is likely looking to other countries to continue his tactics.
Brussels is increasing pressure on Lukashenko and his regime for the brutal crackdown on protests following their disputed victory in last August’s elections. The Belarusian opposition and western countries consider the election rigged.
More sanctions were announced after an incident in late May when the Minsk regime forcibly landed a Ryanair passenger ship from Athens to Vilnius to detain opposition blogger Raman Pratasevic.
Belarus responded by organizing an influx of migrants, mainly Iraqis and Afghans, to neighboring Lithuania, Latvia and Poland. They have introduced an emergency situation in the border areas due to the migration crisis, they have started to build a wire fence barrier and they have reinforced border protection.
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