Climatologists announce when we will receive unpleasant changes: a region of Lithuania is the luckiest

The main factor determining the weather in Lithuania these days (and in the Central and Eastern European part) is a strong and low mobility anticyclone over the western part of Russia. The pressure in the center reaches 1040 hPa (in the Vitebsk and Smolensk areas) and this is apparently the first derivative of such strong high pressure since last spring. The anticyclone extended in a latitudinal direction from western Germany to the Middle East of the Volga. The high surface pressure results in strong inversions of soil temperature and night and morning frosts. In Lithuania, frosts covered almost the entire territory of the republic, but the strongest occurred in the eastern and southern part of Lithuania (-4.3 ° C, Varėna). On the other hand, low clouds and calm weather during the day and a warm, dry air mass in the upper layers cause the air to warm to +12 – +15 ° C. This is also confirmed by sounding data from Kaunas air station tonight: air temperature increased from +1 ° C at the surface to +10.2 ° C at a height of 150 m above the ground.

The strength and stability of the anticyclone are most affected by the large-scale bar field and air currents in the middle and upper troposphere. It is a high-rise ridge operating in pairs over Western Europe and Scandinavia and a separate high-pressure lowland area over the Carpathian region and the northern Balkan Peninsula. The latter is related to the low-speed Mediterranean cyclone, which has caused heavy rains in the Balkans these days. In some places in Greece, up to several hundred millimeters of precipitation daily has fallen, which can cause flash floods in short, rapid mountain rivers.

The Eastern European anticyclone will gradually weaken and move eastward until finally joining the emerging Asian (Siberian) anticyclone system in 3-4 days. The Mediterranean cyclone, which is currently filling up off the west coast of Greece, is forecast to start to recover tomorrow and fly through the Aegean Sea, the Bosphorus, eastern Bulgaria and Ukraine in the early days of next week.

From Wednesday to Thursday, this cyclone will hit Belarus and the western regions of Russia already in the secondary maturity stage. Cyclones of this type (south) cause not only heavy rains in their wake, but also a highly changeable climate and strong winds. The rear of this cyclone should reach the eastern edge of Lithuania on Wednesday and cause cold and bad weather there. However, the forecasts for the tracks of such cyclones are not very accurate, especially for forecasts of 3 days or more, so the nature of the track can completely change at least a few hundred kilometers east or west of the weather forecast. .

So far, the sunny, calm weather and golden fall colors are pleasing to the eye, and the wide range of daily fluctuations in air temperature (10-14 ° C) is an advantage rather than a disadvantage. Starting next Monday, the clouds will increase, the maximum air temperature during the day will decrease, but the nights will remain cool, in many areas with frost. The climate will change less in the coastal region, where the chances of frost will remain the lowest.

In Europe, it is currently hotter than usual in Scandinavia, the British Isles and Portugal. These regions are within the zone of influence of the western periphery of the high mountain range, which is moved by the warm and humid air of the Atlantic. On the contrary, it is abnormally cool in the Balkans, where the average daily air temperature is at least 3-8 ° C lower than in the perennial due to the cloudy and meteorological climate, and the period of “summer bob” (if happens again this year) is postponed. The summer heat has not yet left Portugal, the southwest of Andalusia and the islands of Cyprus, where the maximum air temperature reaches +28 – +30 ° C.

If the people of Central and Eastern Europe can’t boast a true “bob summer”, it’s in full swing in the eastern part of the United States and Canada.

Although the greatest heat now prevails (and is projected) in the southern and central United States, Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, the strongest heat anomaly is expected in the Canadian provinces of Quebec and Ontario, down to 14-16 ° C above the weather. . Such a strong anomaly is caused by the intense transfer of warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico to Hudson Bay.

According to the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF), the coolest and most humid weather will remain in southeastern Europe and the Black Sea region in the second half of this month, and warmer in western and southwestern Europe. In Lithuania and neighboring territories, the second half of October is expected to approach the norm.