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Daniel L Davis, a former lieutenant colonel in the United States Army, shared his views with The Guardian on how the United States should deal with China. We share your text.
In the India-Pacific region, Washington is under pressure to wage a potentially existential war. American policymakers have to face the difficult reality that in the fight against China, Taiwan faces almost certain military defeat and speculation about whether or not to engage in nuclear war.
In fact, the United States should refuse to participate in a war without winning Beijing. It must be said beforehand: Washington would not have a good option if China were determined to take Taiwan by force.
There is a spirit among officials and opinion leaders in Washington to fight if China tries to conquer Taiwan by force. Speaking at the Center for Strategic Studies last Friday, Undersecretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks said that if Beijing invades Taiwan, “we will have many opportunities in the region to move forward and destroy that potential.”
Either Hickss does not know how little military capacity we have deployed in the India-Pacific region, or he does not know how great China’s military capacity is there, but in any case, there is no guarantee that we will “stop” the invasion. from China. from Taiwan.
Scanpix / AP Photo / Joe Biden at the United Nations General Assembly
Earlier this year, US Senator Rick Scott and House Member Guy Reschenthaler introduced the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act, which according to the latter would allow “the president to use military force to defend Taiwan from attack. direct”. In the event of an actual attack, there would be tremendous pressure to urgently implement such a bill so Joe Biden could act. But we must resist this temptation.
As I have already mentioned, there is no rational scenario in which the United States can find itself in a better and safer place after the war with China. The best that can be hoped for is a victory where we get caught up in becoming a permanent defense force for Taiwan (it will cost us hundreds of billions a year and will wait for the same constant requirement to be prepared for the inevitable Chinese counterattack).
The most likely outcome would be our usual defeat when China finally succeeds, many of our planes were shot down, the ships sank, and thousands of our people were killed. But the worst case scenario is war, which is uncontrollably turning into a nuclear confrontation.
“Scanpix” / “SIPA” nuotr./Xi Jinpingas
The best option that most Americans are not happy with is to abandon the direct fight against China on behalf of Taiwan. Doing so will allow the United States to find itself on the other side of the Sino-Taiwanese war without compromising our global military and economic power.
DL Davis: Publicly, Washington should continue to accept strategic uncertainty, but privately inform Taiwanese leaders that we will not go to war with China.
This does not mean that we are passively standing by and allowing China to traverse Taiwan with impunity. The most effective course of action for Washington would be to condemn China as strongly as possible, to lead a global movement that will impose devastating sanctions on Beijing. But China’s pain would not be limited to the economy.
It will take Beijing decades to overcome the damage caused by the war to occupy Taiwan, even if China succeeds. On the other hand, the United States and our Western allies will maintain their military strength, they will dominate international commercial markets. Even other Asian regimes would view Xi as a definitive aggressor. Our security has been strengthened compared to what it is today, and indescribably greater than if we foolishly tried to go to war with China.
Washington should continue to publicly accept strategic uncertainty, but privately inform Taiwanese leaders that we will not go to war with China. This would greatly encourage Taipei to undertake the necessary political actions and negotiations to maintain the status quo. Buki, the harsh reality is that Taiwan, maintaining the status quo, is far better than the smoking rubble on the island conquered by Beijing.
The only way the United States could compromise our security would be to allow itself to participate in a war that we are likely to lose due to the country’s security concerns. If China were to take Taiwan by force, Washington would have to stand by and lead global efforts to drive China away, helping to ensure that our security is strengthened for the next generation.
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