A new sunrise? Nine conclusions after important elections in Germany

The Social Democrats won Sunday’s elections by a small margin. But the latter’s dominance over the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is so small that conservatives may also try to form a coalition.

In this case, both the Greens and the Free Liberal Democratic Party (FDP) can be considered the owners of the situation; Both political forces will try to negotiate an agenda that is as beneficial as possible for them and then decide if this is the case. better for them to the right or to the left.

Negotiations, both formal and informal, are likely to take weeks, if not months. Politico provides nine key insights after the elections.

1. The power of the little ones

Both the more realistic candidates for the post of chancellor and the replacement of the outgoing Angela Merkel, both the Socdem Olaf Scholz and the cricket Armin Laschet, are assured of a secure mandate to lead the future government.

However, the potential partners of these big parties are not wrong in saying that the best cards at this poker table fell on the smallest political forces: the Greens and the FDP.

The leader of the latter party, Christian Lindner, was already open on Sunday night: “The CDU and the Socdem have not achieved anything since the last elections. So it is time to start over in Germany. “

2. First coordinate positions

Both Lindner and Greens leader Annalena Baerbock are keenly aware of the chances of gaining even greater political muscle, even though the Liberals received nearly as many votes as they did in 2017, and the Greens didn’t even lead the polls that long ago. . .

This is probably why the strategists of both parties are already saying that they must first agree and then listen to the proposals of the greats.

Just before the elections, Lindner was quite skeptical about the possible formation of a coalition of “traffic lights” together with the Socialists and the Greens.

“It would make sense for the FDP and the Greens to talk to each other first and foremost and plan for the future,” Lindner said, with Baerbock’s agreement.

On the other hand, just before the elections, Lindner was quite skeptical about the possible formation of a coalition of “traffic lights” together with the Socialists and the Greens. He even claimed that the FDP and the Greens are linked only by the desire to legalize marijuana.

3. Never say never

Together with Baerbock, Robert Habeck himself, leader of the German Greens, pointed out that it would be quite difficult to form a coalition of “lights”, because the FDP is ideologically very different from the Social Democrats and the Greens, who are historically quite close.

“But success is possible, just like the Jamaican coalition of the CDU, the FDP and the Greens. Many opportunities: a new era begins. The party of two (CDU and Socdem) that understands it better will have a better chance of winning the Chancellor’s office, ”said R. Heckeckas.

In ideological terms, the FDP is in fact very different from the Social Democrats and the Greens, who are historically quite close.

4. Competitive narratives

Neither the FDP nor the Greens are talking about the fact that the mandate to start negotiations must go to the party that received the most votes in the elections. Of course, this is not a problem for these smaller political forces, but the CDU and the Social Democrats have already started arguing over who should form the government.

Scholz drew attention to the declining ratings of the Conservatives: 24.1 percent. Voter votes are the worst result for the CDU in post-WWII elections.

Laschet, for his part, said that “the vote for the Union of Christian Democrats is a vote against a left-wing government.”

5. Government: for everyone?

“We will do everything we can to form a Union-led government. Germany needs a coalition for the future that will modernize our country,” Laschet said on election night.

Billed as a particularly unattractive candidate for chancellor of the CDU, the politician has appealed directly to the Greens and the FDP, promising to form a coalition in which “each partner could be himself.” Understand that the three-party program provisions would find a place in the coalition agreement.

6. What Merkel couldn’t do?

Laschet’s latest comment is a clear reference to what happened in 2017, when the CDU tried for a long time to form a coalition with the Greens and the FDP, but eventually the liberals broke up the talks angrily with Chancellor Merkel.

This time, A. Laschet promises to form a coalition that attracts all its participants; this cricket tries to nurture the image of an easy-to-create and generally happy partner.

Meanwhile, the Socdem O.Scholz stressed that the most important thing for him would be to form a “good and pragmatic government that works for Germany.”

7. In the shade: ambitious Bavarians

However, before embarking on an important mission, Laschet must also avoid a possible hit. As mentioned, the CDU’s performance in the elections was the worst since the early postwar years.

And Markus Söder, chairman of the CDU’s sister party in Bavaria, the Christian Social Union, has no doubt that it would have won more seats for the Conservatives in the Bundestag.

There were even rumors that Laschet would immediately retire. However, he was helped – at least for the moment – by a decisive performance on stage at the CDU headquarters, moreover, by 80 percent. The German favorite A.Merkel.

Mr Söder, for his part, seems to have stopped rebelling. Just before the election, he boldly explained that second place would prevent a coalition from forming, but on Sunday he spoke very differently: that the Social Democrats are declaring victory too early.

“The conclusion is only one: the voters rejected the Alliance of the Left and gave a mandate to the Alliance of the center-right. That is why we will have to negotiate now, “said M. Söder.

8. Right-wing radicals do not move out of place

Representatives of the far-right Alternative to Germany (AfD) party will continue to work in the new Bundestag, although these radicals have won fewer votes and thus lost their status as the largest opposition party.

During the election campaign, AfD tried to provoke public discontent with the government’s handling of the pandemic. But many voters did not live in protest, at least in western Germany, where most people live.

Of course, in the post-communist East, the AfD remains a powerful force, but that is not enough for national success.

9. Germany, like the Netherlands?

According to Politico, it seems that before voting, the Germans decided to look for who could take over from A. Merkel more effectively, but obviously they did not find the most suitable candidate.

This means that the Bundestage will now function and the government will form more parties than usual. In Western Europe, the Netherlands has broad and diverse coalitions. On the other hand, the Cabinet of Ministers itself can remain equally moderate and cautious; This may be what the Germans wanted.

“There is not the slightest risk that everything will suddenly change with the new government. Germans don’t like surprises, they like gradation when things are done step by step.

That is one of the reasons why the current Chancellor has been in office for so long, she understood it very well, she knew how to make changes smoothly, “he said Sunday night. 15 minutes said the German ambassador in Vilnius Matthias Sonnas.