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Exercise Zapad 2021, which took place in the Western Military District of Russia and Belarus, ended on September 16.
These exercises are traditionally held every four years and focus on the “Western Strategic Direction”, according to the leadership of the Russian force. They are held every year in the Russian military districts of Zapad, Vostok, Centr and Kavkaz.
“Of course, this is not just an exercise, but also an important signal that shows military capabilities and the determination to use them in a very public way,” says Kofman.
A similar but more ambitious scenario
According to the analyst, in recent years, a component of military diplomacy has become increasingly prominent at Zapad 2021 and other similar events: The exercise is attended by soldiers from foreign countries who are partners with Russia.
However, it is the Zapad 2021 that is receiving the most attention. This is not surprising, as the confrontation between Russia and NATO continues, and this year has also contributed the migration crisis on the border of Belarus with three allies: Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
Military exercise Scanpix Photo / Zapad 2021
Already in 2017, the Zapad exercise was surrounded by great hysteria, although in reality nothing terrible happened. Coffman simply points out that those exercises were smaller than Zapad 2013 and Zapad 2009, adding: “But this year the exercises were much longer and bigger again.”
How is this year’s exercise different from that carried out in 2017? The scenario was very similar: a coalition of NATO countries was intervening in Belarus to overthrow power and open part of the country’s territory.
In this way, the Alliance coalition forces are confronting Russian troops in Belarus, and the conflict is turning into a regional war, which is said to have hit Belarusian and Russian territories.
This year, up to two months before the start of the exercise, they were sent to landfills for selection. According to M. Kofman, this was an attempt to ensure maximum preparation for the exercises and to rehearse them as many times as possible.
How is this year’s exercise different from that carried out in 2017? The scenario was very similar: a coalition of NATO countries was intervening in Belarus to overthrow power and open part of the country’s territory.
“The exercises themselves were larger than in 2017, and Russian forces were dispatched to the western regions of Belarus. The scale was large: at least 15 landfills were active in Russia and six in Belarus,” the expert writes.
Military exercise Scanpix Photo / Zapad 2021
Furthermore, this joint exercise was quite complex, testing the interoperability of the armies of both countries by activating a Group of Regional Forces, which would come into operation in the event of a military threat.
“Until 2020, Belarus never wanted to accept many Russian troops because it hoped to achieve a balance between Moscow and the West.” This practice has obviously ended: the Minsk regime is trying to survive and is deeper than ever in the sphere of economic and economic influence. security of Russia “, emphasizes M. Kofman.
In his opinion, this is why Zapad 2021 was not simply a joint Russian-Belarusian military exercise aimed at demonstrating the Kremlin’s determination and ability to defend its interests in a neighboring country.
No, only soldiers from up to seven states attended the exercise, demonstrating the desire to show that the conflict with the West would not be limited in scope.
The emphasis is on a maneuverable defense.
The Russian armed forces have been training frequently lately, basically throughout the year. This maintains a high level of readiness.
Military exercise Scanpix Photo / Zapad 2021
Fall exercises usually mean a peak because they are larger, but according to Kofman, this time of year is no longer the main period of preparation for the Russian military. Zapad 2021, for example, was really dynamic, but the exercises were organized very carefully.
On the other hand, six days of exercise on more than two dozen polygons means looking really was what. What did the Russian forces rehearse and prepare for during Zapad 2021?
Air operations at night are often just as important as rapid response tasks, so you can keep a significant area occupied until the heaviest military equipment arrives.
As M. Kofman pointed out, the exercise scenarios were based on the components of Russia’s military strategy at a more operational and tactical level: the principle of active defense was followed. This means that it has been practiced to repel a massive NATO aviation attack in the early stages of the war.
In other words, Russian air defense, tactical aviation and electronic warfare units were organized through Zapad 2021. Simulated counterattacks to an opponent with long-range missiles in the field of military operations, the airborne units were highly visible.
Kofman noted that Russian forces increasingly train at night; in this area they still lag behind the West, but the gap is getting smaller every year.
Air operations at night are often just as important as rapid response tasks, so you can keep a significant area occupied until the heaviest military equipment arrives. Furthermore, large air operations, when helicopters are also used, testify to greater tactical mobility.
„Scanpix“ / AP nuotr./Rusijos oro desantininkai
The main focus of the exercise became the so-called maneuver defense. A scenario has developed in which Russian ground forces, supported by tactical aviation, defend themselves against larger enemy forces and finally manage to counterattack.
At the heart of this concept is the tactical participation of front-line units in engagements, after which they retreat to prepared reserve positions and attempt to encircle their opponents. Then an artillery and missile strike begins, and finally a retaliatory strike begins.
The backbone of the army is the artillery.
“Finally, the Russian exercise allows us to imagine how the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces foresees a possible regional or much larger military conflict with NATO,” Kofman said.
According to the expert, Russian strategists remain concerned about NATO’s enormous advantage in terms of air force and ability to accurately target distant targets.
In Moscow, it is believed that Russian forces would be weaker after the start of the conflict and should look for ways to change the situation.
„Scanpix“ / AP nuotr./Rusijos oro desantininkai
The analyst writes that one way to do this would be to withdraw from the territory without wasting the lives of the soldiers. True, this does not mean that such maneuvers would be defensive.
“It is done in such a way that opponents are constantly facing each other, in such a way that there is almost no difference between defensive and offensive operations.
“The most significant change in the attitude of Russia is the withdrawal of the strategic attack on the ground and the increased desire to attack critical economic and military targets, thus destroying the possibilities or the determination of the enemy to continue participating in the conflict”, emphasizes M. Kofman.
The point here is that artillery cannons were fired very frequently during exercise Zapad 2021. According to Kofman, the Russian army is in principle an artillery army supported by groups of motorized rifles and tanks; in other words, artillery is the backbone of this army.
“Zapad did not appear to be a stress test. But these exercises confirmed that the modernization of the army, which has been going on for many years, has turned the Russian forces into a strong fighting power: it is more mobile and better prepared.” believes M. Kofman.
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