Politicians are looking for someone to share power with: what alliances are possible?

According to the latest public opinion poll conducted by Vilmorus, published in the Lietuvos Rytas newspaper on SaturdayThree parties would join the Seimas: the National Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD), the Union of Peasants and Greens of Lithuania (LVŽS) and the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP).

Other political forces now represented in the Seimas would receive significantly fewer votes.

According to the results of the survey, the Liberal Movement can expect 4.3 percent, Order and Justice (joining the new Freedom and Justice party) will receive 3.1 percent, the Polish Lithuanian Election Campaign-Union of Christian Families ( LLRA- CPC) – 2.2 percent. support from respondents and the like.

Closed-door conversations.

Gabrielius Landsbergis, president of the TS-LKD, who presented the draft of the election program to Seimas on Monday, explained that possible negotiations on a new government were taken into account during its formation..

Efforts have been made not to adopt a particularly radical position, which could be a red line for other parties that they will not be able to tackle.

Landsberg said he envisioned a future coalition as the Coherence Coalition.

According to the conservative, a wide range of political forces could be involved: from the Liberal Movement of “natural” conservative partners, the Freedom Party led by Aušrinė Armonaitė and possibly the Social Democrats.

“I think the most important question now is, of course, for themselves. They are outraged, at least publicly, claiming that no coalition sees an opportunity. We are talking a little behind closed doors, “explained the conservative leader about possible joint work with the Social Democrats.

We talk a little behind closed doors.

When asked if he would seek an agreement with the Social Democrats or the “peasants”, G. Landsbergis assured that it was too early to talk about it, because he does not know what the new Seimas will be like.

However, he emphasized that there are red lines.

“A party that sets its goal of strengthening the state through trust, consensus, etc., are political forces that may not want that consensus. They do not want to strengthen the state, they want to divide, gain more power through division These are probably the ones that won’t be sitting at the common table, “G. Landsbergis explained.

What would the “peasants” want?

Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis, who will participate in the Seimas elections with “peasants”, a few weeks ago. In an interview with TV3, he said he thought the LSDP would choose TS-LKD as partners in the coalition..

“If the Social Democrats won the majority and proposed a coalition, it would be their initiative, I think they would consider the LVŽS. But I think, at least based on the work and behavior of the past year, and the actions coordinated today, the Social Democrats would probably invite the Coalition partners to the National Union, “S. Skvernelis told TV3.

But I think that, at least in terms of the work and behavior of the past few years, and the actions that are still being coordinated today, the Social Democrats would likely invite coalition partners to the National Union.

Ramūnas Karbauskis, president of LVŽS, has also said which coalitions he would like after the Seimas elections.

After the party council meeting in Naisiai in early June He indicated that he would like the next ruling majority to be made up of center-left political forces, the same parties as now.

Now, in addition to the LVŽS, the coalition includes separate social workers from the LSDP, LLRA-KŠS, and other parties, such as “Order and Justice,” which have been left to individual politicians.

Criticism – for both

Gintautas Paluckas, who became president of the LSDP, dissolved the coalition with the “peasants” in 2017, and the Social Democrats withdrew to the opposition.

However, the social societies in the Seimas also did not want to work for long with other opposition parties: the TS-LKD and the Liberal Movement.

In early 2019, they signed a cooperation agreement between opposition parliamentary factions and ended it a year later..

G. Paluckas explained that “the path of conservative political activity in the context of the upcoming elections is becoming increasingly sharp, it is opposed and there are few constructive proposals.”

In the context of the upcoming elections, the conservatives’ political behavior is becoming increasingly sharp, opposite, and there are few constructive proposals.

For the news portal LRT.lt Paluck said in February that the LSDP would work with the “peasants” if the socdems were in command and the LVŽS admitted mistakes.

What else will be in the Seimas?

Other political parties will also join the Seimas.

The Liberal Movement has suffered serious shocks as a result of the political corruption scandal.

However, political scientists do not rule out the party’s possibilities of crossing the 5 percent barrier required to enter Seimas.

In public opinion polls, the “not-shiny” LLRA-KŠS has had a faction in the Seimas for the past two terms.

The Labor Party, again led by Viktor Uspaskich, can also become a black horse in elections.

Liberty and Justice, the Social Democratic Labor Party of Lithuania, brought together by Remigijus Žemaitaitis, Artūras Zuokas and Artūras Paulauskas, will also go to the polls. Also other older or new parties.

Much more can change

Professor Lauras Bielinis of Vytautas Magnus University (VMU) said that today it is very difficult to decide what the coalition will be like after the October elections.

Based on current sentiment and rating indicators, they are more likely to form a center-left majority.

“But as it really will be, we will still see it because there is still a lot of time. There are still many changes that can happen and this may lead to some of the now leading parties lagging behind, those that now have less than 5 percent ability to win more. Therefore, it is still risky to draw general conclusions here, “said the political scientist.

There is still a lot that can happen.

Although they hear public statements from politicians, it does not seem that the relations between the “peasants” and the Social Democrats are the best, according to L. Bielinis, and in this context a consensus between them is possible.

“We understand that politics is not just about some personal ambition or resentment. These are simply interests that, when reconciled, can lead to a great deal for both parties,” explained the VMU professor.

L. Bielinis considered that a coalition between conservatives, other right-wingers and the LSDP is theoretically possible.

“It just caught our eye then. But again, this really requires the right conditions, overlapping interests: many different factors must be taken into account in one way or another, ”he said.

There has been no rainbow coalition in Lithuania.

It is true that the minority government of the Gediminas Kirkilas socdemia was supported for some time by the conservatives led by Andrius Kubilius. Political scientists described their political friendship as the 2K project.

Is it possible that after the elections in April, visiting conservatives and peaceful “peasants” visit and decide to form a coalition together?

Is it possible that after the elections in April, visiting conservatives and peaceful “peasants” visit and decide to form a coalition together?

“It just came to our attention then. But in this case, we are not thinking about it today. Because in fact today is a rather complicated situation in the relationship between them. But, in theory, why not?” L. Bielinis commented .

Pressure on conservatives

According to Saulius Spurga, associate professor at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), the question of what the coalition that will form after the Seimas elections will look like is a complicated one. It will depend on the will of the voters.

Furthermore, as the expert stressed, parties often do not keep their promises about which coalitions to participate in after the elections.

Spurga says it is clear that conservatives will feel pressure from the coalition.

The reviewer recalled that the TS-LKD had the opportunity to be in the ruling majority after the 2016 Seimas elections.

“It just came to our attention then. And now they haven’t been in the ruling coalition for eight years, two terms, another four years would be a challenge. Both in terms of member motivation and in the eyes of voters, what is it a party that in no way can come to power for many years? Therefore, it is probably not surprising that G. Landsbergis is already more liberal in that regard, “said the associate professor at MRU.

They have not been in the ruling coalition for eight years, another four years would already be a challenge. Both in terms of the motivation of the members and in the eyes of the voters, what is a party that in no way can come to power for many years?

Could Social Democrats be representatives of a completely opposite political ideology as partners in the conservative coalition? It is very difficult to imagine the Rainbow Coalition for S. Spurgai.

“Anyway, it would seem ideologically that the Social Democrats and the ‘peasants’ (could be edited). But again, looking at what you saw. The Social Democrats are traditionally liberal on moral issues, the ‘peasants’ are very illiberal. So there are all kinds of things here, “he emphasized.

At the same time, S. Spurga noted that the “peasants” in the person of S. Skvernelis are very technocratic, but they did not lose certain social democratic characteristics.

“Then we realized that it would make sense to come together and talk about that coalition.” But, as we know, many things are determined by different ambitions and different circumstances, “said the MRU professor.

But, as we know, many things are determined by different ambitions and different circumstances.

Posture of others

Other political parties are unlikely to be on the front lines of coalition formation, but if they join Seimas, they will join the coalitions.

L. Bielinis urged not to forget that small political forces are included in the coalitions because of the votes.

“And those voices become really important in the coalition, they become a kind of golden voice.” So even the small factions involved in the coalition can have a big impact and do a lot if done right, ”said the VMU professor.

It would be strange if the Liberal Movement moved to the left. According to S. Spurga, liberals are natural allies of conservatives.

“The only problem is that they never win many places, they don’t anticipate it,” said the MRU professor.

The only problem is that they never win many places, not much and they anticipate it.

The strategy and program of the Labor Party, which did not go beyond the necessary cartel for the division of parliamentary terms in 2016, is in the classification, according to S. Spurga.

“He will go with anyone and under any conditions to be in power. In this sense, if the votes are lacking to form a majority, the Labor Party will always be able to offer its services if it goes to the Seimas, ”he believes.

The Freedom and Justice Party remains just a name, it does not have a clear configuration and program.

According to S. Spurga, if the LLRA-KŠS is in a coalition with “peasants”, it could extend this cooperation.