After the unexpected news of a new security alliance: anger and resentment: Europe was simply surrounded

On Thursday, just hours before the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Joseph Borrell, had to unveil a rather vague European strategy for India and the Pacific, the United States, Britain and Australia rigged it hard.

It is these three countries that have announced a particularly significant pact that will allow their cooperation in cutting-edge military technology and allow Canberra to build nuclear submarines.

The fact that Britain, which dared to implement Brexit, became the only European ally invited to join the most powerful, has exacerbated the blow to the EU.

The redistribution of power in the Asia-Pacific region has become a real spectacle for France, now forced to decide that the multi-million dollar deal with Australia on the supply of submarines will not be implemented.

No such jolt has been experienced in transatlantic relations since the Iraq war that began in 2003.

Commenting on what happened, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said: “It is a blow to the back. We have established a relationship of trust with Australia, but unfortunately there is no trust left. “

Not surprisingly, France immediately stepped up its calls to Europe for a course in strategic autonomy and less reliance on American technology and military power.

Brussels will inevitably be affected by the upcoming tripartite cooperation between the US, the UK and Australia in developing technologies to compete with the Chinese (eg based on artificial intelligence). It is worth mentioning that this is precisely the topic, the compatibility of technological standards, which should be discussed at the EU-US meeting. In Pittsburgh this month.

The biggest problem is that the United States is increasingly outraged at the EU’s dovish approach to China. Despite doubts expressed by US President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron rushed to reach a major investment deal with China late last year.

American diplomats want the Pittsburgh talks to focus on tech ecosystems that are excluded from China, but European officials are working hard to downplay anti-Beijing cooperation aspects.

There is no doubt that France will be at the height of the diplomatic controversy. Paris questions the impact that the new tripartite alliance (AUKUS) will have on France’s own rights under the diesel submarine deal.

“This is not the end,” said JY Le Drian. – We need a clarification. After all, we have contracts. “

Along with a colleague, Defense Minister Florence Parly, JY Le Drian wrote a statement in which she poured outrage directly at Washington.

“The decision by the United States to separate Europe as an ally and France as a partner in meaningful cooperation with Australia at a time of unprecedented challenges in the India-Pacific region, either because of our values ​​or because of” multilateralism based on respect to the rule of law he points out a lack of coherence that France cannot fail to notice and which it cannot regret ”, said two ministers.

Will do long term damage

France, as the country that was the first of all EU members to adopt a strategy for India and the Pacific in 2018 and then encouraged Germany and the rest of the EU to do the same, could be prompted to rethink its strategic positions.

“MI. For Macron and France, as one of India’s partners in the Pacific, it is a painful blow,” said Herve Lemahieu, research director at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.

“It just came to our attention then. There will be a real earthquake in Paris. This will cause long-term damage to France’s defense and political structures and lead to cross-border diplomatic disputes,” said Benjamin Haddad, director of the European Center for Ideas of the Atlantic Council.

An EU diplomat said that the consequences for Europe would remain important for France and that the EU’s strategy for India and the Pacific went far beyond the military dimension.

“Germany, for example, has been trying to talk about trade diversification (deviating from China) while working to implement the India-Pacific strategy,” he recalled.

To maintain its reputation in the region, Germany announced on Thursday another stop for the frigate Bayern (currently moving towards the South China Sea) in Darwin, northern Australia.

“This is a practical test of the EU’s geopolitical ambitions,” commented another diplomat, acknowledging that, on the one hand, it was not good that the United States and Australia did not see the EU and its member states as reliable security partners, but “We shouldn’t expect too much from the India-Pacific strategy: the EU is not a player in the Pacific.”

Until relations with Australia are restored, France can heed the diplomatic lesson Japan has learned. Following the failure of the initiative to sign a defense agreement with Australia, Tokyo was able to continue to maintain strong ties with Canberra against a common rival region, China.

“Japan and Australia have overcome those stages of tension and mistrust,” Lemahieu said, adding that India, a country with good security relations with France, could play a constructive role in showing that the EU is not being ousted.

Borrell also emphasized Thursday that there could be no talk of Europe abandoning her as a regional actor.

“The EU is already the largest investor, the main guarantor of development cooperation and one of the most important trading partners in the India-Pacific region,” he said.