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NASA recently updated predictions that assess the probability that the asteroid Bennu, one of the two most dangerous objects in our planetary system, will collide with Earth in the next 300 years. The new calculations show a probability of 1 in 1750, slightly higher than expected.
The space agency, following a house-sized rock since its discovery in 1999, revised its predictions based on new data.
Such a small change in timing doesn’t seem to lead to a scenario like the one we saw in the 1998 science fiction disaster film Armageddon, in which Bruce Willis and his team had to attempt to blow up a massive asteroid course that could cause mass extinction on Earth.
(In November, NASA still plans to launch a mission to test whether the spacecraft could change its trajectory in the event of a collision with a large asteroid, if necessary.)
This begs the question: should we be concerned with such probabilities? We present it to two statistical associations. Professors Lucas B. Janson and Morgane Austern.
They gave examples of comparison of the probability of Bennu colliding with Earth with slightly more terrestrial events:
If you flip a coin, the coat of arms will fall for the first 11 times.
The probability that four people will be born in the same month (the probability that such an event occurs is exactly ⅟₁₇₅₀).
Throw the darts at the board with your eyes closed and hit the center.
Winning the VaxMillions state lottery on two different days if all eligible adults were present and ticketing occurred every second.
In short, Janson says if you bet, bet everything will work out. But again, he adds, if I make a mistake, “the lost money would worry me less.”
Sources:
Harvard University
scitechdaily.com
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