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Talks about the departure of S. Skvernelis from the Seimas LVŽS faction have been circulating for some time.
They were further ignited by the public bites of Ramūnas Karbauskis, the president of the “peasants”, and S. Skvernelis, a member of the LVŽS faction who did not belong to this party.
S. Skvernelis will probably present the new faction on Tuesday, that day journalists are invited to a press conference.
Political scientist of the General Jonas Zemaitis Jūratė Novagrockienė Military Academy 15 minutes He said that it could not really be said that after the departure of S. Skvernel, the “peasant” party would be condemned.
“The party has many members, it has a strong enough faction that even after S. Skvernelis and his opponents, who emerged, it is still strong enough.
In addition, it responds to the attitude of a more radical, traditional, conservative society and is very focused on it, ”he said.
Photo by Julius Kalinskas / 15min / Jūratė Novagrockienė
According to the political scientist, the LVJS will undoubtedly retain part of the voters, and the future of the party will also depend on the strategy of the political force, for example, whether it will decide to cooperate with other political forces.
“But it will definitely weaken the party,” he said.
J.Novagrockienė agreed that one of the options is to approach the “protesters”, but this would happen at the expense of the more moderate voters.
“It is never the case that, with the support of a group of voters, a party that voted and perhaps is more moderate does not suffer in one way or another,” he said.
According to her, S. Skvernelis herself, in this context, when the country faces two crises and there is a lot of tension, it is successfully holding half the gold.
This is your advantage in the current situation.
“On the other hand, it offers quick fixes on how things should be handled. Of course, it doesn’t cost you anything, because you don’t decide anything and you don’t see the result.
But people should like the fact that there is a well-known politician who knows how to deal with problems. That is their advantage in the current situation, ”he said.
In 2016, thanks to S. Skvernelis, LVŽS achieved a stunning victory in the elections. Is it still a gold ticket that can elevate any political force?
According to the political scientist, S. Skvernelis has the qualities of leadership and can be an attractive politician who can seize the maximum political force.
T. Janeliūnas: this is partly an advantage
Tomas Janeliūnas, Professor, Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Vilnius University 15 minutes stated that the withdrawal of S. Skvernelis from LVŽS would purify it in the first place.
Photo by Sigismund Gedvila / 15min / Tomas Janeliūnas
“Because the current situation was really ambiguous, when a party with R. Karbauskis at the forefront was quite radical, especially with regard to the current government, there were many anti-liberal attitudes.
And on the other side, the team of S.Svvernelis, were the ones who watched and appreciated the activities of the current Government much more moderately. And that worldview is so moderate, “said the political scientist.
According to him, after the withdrawal of S. Skvernelis, it will be very clear to R. Karbauskis’ team why they are fighting, these politicians will be able to position themselves very clearly on the spectrum of the radical right.
“It can even be an advantage for them, because now there are many small separate formations on that side – parties, movements, but they are all divided, their entry into the Seimas, as we saw in the last elections, is quite doubtful.” I think that the party that R. Karbauskis has purged can concentrate that niche in the sense of the voters, ”said T. Janeliūnas.
He did not rule out that the future of LVŽS could be linked to the best-known faces of the “protesters.”
“There are already a number of links between them and they largely support each other,” he added.
And how will S.Svvernelis itself develop?
According to T. Janeliūnas, it loses a bit of the potential it had a few years ago.
He, I think, just takes such ambition with such ambitions, because otherwise, and for whom?
“But as a moderate politician who really had a lot of voter support in his day, I think he still has the ability to unite a party that doesn’t necessarily win an election, but at least one that enters parliament.
There is time to get up before the elections, to plan actions and why not? He thinks he is taking such a step with so many ambitions, because if not, and for whom? “Said the interlocutor.
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