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According to them, the challenges will be faced both by the still relatively fragile ruling majority and by the opposition, which cannot mobilize in any way. Although political scientists believe that the ruling majority is not in danger of collapsing, tensions between the majority and the minority of the Seimas will increase over time. On the other hand, they do not rule out that the fragmentation processes that have been initiated within the ranks of the opposition may facilitate the ruling party.
In the first place, it is up to S. Skvernel whether it is worth it and whether it is possible to stay with the peasants. If the former prime minister decides to step down, political scientists are considering a ruling majority to win, at least in the short term.
On the other hand, according to Professor Lauras Bielinis of Vytautas Magnus University (VMU), if events turn in this direction, both the peasants and the ruling right could face challenges later, in the next elections.
For those in power, S. Skvernelis can make life easier in the short term
L. Bielinis agrees that in the autumn session of the Seimas, which will begin in September, there may be quite important changes in the ranks of the opposition: the possible withdrawal of S. Skvernelis and the subsequent parliamentarians of the peasant faction.
According to the political scientist, if this decision were accompanied by the active participation of S. Skvernelis in political processes, it could have a tangible impact on the balance of power in the current Seimas. “We see that new forces are actually forming in the ranks of the opposition, or at least there are signs of the possibility of new forces forming. I’m thinking about the possibility or probability of S. Skvernel leaving and gathering a group of people around him. It can happen … And if it happens, we will actually see new activity from Skvernel and the people associated with it, “L. Bielinis told Eltai.
According to the VMU professor, such a probability, at least in the near future, would cause more problems for the opposition and not for the rulers.
“The rulers will remain the same, impassive, because there are several reasons. First, there is no unity and agreement in the opposition, it is natural that they have many claims between them. Second, the rulers resolve many things harmoniously, at least those solutions seem harmonious enough, ”said L. Bielinis.
“If Skvernelis really creates any new forces, the opposition will be even more fragmented and the rulers will simply be able to look ahead calmly, realizing that the competitors are too weak to overthrow,” continued the VMU professor.
According to the political scientist, the challenges related to the withdrawal of S. Skvernel from the peasants would be faced only in the long term, if they manage to accumulate and direct their political potential.
“Tactically, it is good for the rulers, but on a strategic level, it is quite dangerous, because we have seen how the arrival of Skvernel to the” peasants “increased their chances of victory. So as the elections approach, Squirrel will return to be dangerous for both the peasants and the rulers. Therefore, in a strategic sense, the crystallization of the power of S. Skvernel is quite dangerous, “said L. Bielinis.
Meanwhile, Rima Urbonaitė, a professor at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), also saw potential benefits for the ruling majority in the possible resignation of S. Skvernelis.
On the other hand, he also emphasized the losses that peasants would suffer if the former prime minister left the ranks of the largest opposition faction.
“The faction leaves the” number one “list of the last Seimas elections – S. Skvernelis received 80 thousand priority votes. R. Karbauskis has received around 65 thousand priority votes. This means that the faction is left by the leader This is not the way out of Tom Tomilin. So, saying that the peasants will not do harm is definitely not possible, “said the MRU political scientist.
Unlike L. Bielinis, R. Urbonaitė stated that he believed that the ruling majority on the right would win S. Skvernel’s decision to stop communicating with the peasants not because the opposition would become more fragmented, but because the rulers would have more opportunities to communicate. with the new faction, which could be reunited by the former prime minister.
“I think that if S. Skvernelis decides to leave (the peasants – ELTA), a faction may appear in the opposition, with which it may be easier to talk. For those in power, this may be a by-product from which support can be expected. Hypothetically, this would be an advantage for those in power. But life will show how it will really be ”, said R. Urbonaitė.
Rallies and the family movement will have an impact, but political agendas will not dictate
Another quite important factor of the next political season are the movements and rallies against the government and its specific works. Part of the discontent of public opinion with the government’s actions in the face of the COVID-19 crisis, the issue of partnership that returns to the political agenda in the autumn session, arouses passions not only on social media, but also at rallies near the Seimas.
On the very first day of the autumn session, the Family Movement is organizing a demonstration, which will probably receive more public attention than the parliamentarians gathered in the Chamber of the Seimas. Political scientists agree that the most active demonstrations of recent times will have an impact on the political process, but at the same time, they note, this is unlikely to be a significant factor setting the tone for politicians. The Family Movement is no exception. In the opinion of political scientists, it is so far too fragmented to be able to pinpoint the highlights of the political agenda.
“At the moment, I treat the family march as an emotional crowd that is not politically structured. Inside there are a lot of directions, coalitions, and the fact that the program is changing for them and new points are added shows that they are oriented populistly to the changing situation. There is a problem and they immediately load it into their program, and tomorrow we will see some other problem, so they will raise it immediately. So there is no clear concept of political force, there are only emotional reactions “, said L. Bielinis.
“They will have an impact, but to say that it will be a policy determinant, I doubt it,” added the professor.
For his part, R. Urbonaitė emphasized that the meetings of the Family Movement or other initiators that cause similar problems would mainly affect the opposition parties, first of all the peasants and the “workers”. According to R. Urbonaitė, these opposition parties will be more interested in flirting with rallies that oppose the vaccine or oppose some human rights issues.
“One way or another, these politicians will see what is happening on that front. So I wonder how the opposition parties will continue to build relationships with these movements when it comes to flirting. We can already see that we are trying to talk about it. which also signifies the growing legitimacy of these protest groups and the problems they pose, ”said R. Urbonaitė.
