The scientist urges to wear masks and avoid contact with everyone: soon we will see an increase in the number of cases again

V. Zemlys-Balevičius, data scientist at Euromonitor International, spoke about this on Monday on the “Delfi rytas” program.

“It just came to our attention then. If we look at this and last week, we can say that the numbers are similar. What you can say is that the growth of new cases has stopped, but exactly the same, there was a similar stop last year. Sure, so the numbers were completely different, but the trends were similar.

Since cowards’ disease is still a cold that intensifies when the weather cools down when people return to the premises, the windows are closed, now we see a slowdown that we saw last year, and then we will see an increase again ”, said the interlocutor.

So far, he says, it’s hard to say what that rug will look like.

“It depends both on the amount of vaccines we have and on how many of those that remain uninfected we really have,” said the expert.

Most patients treated for coronavirus in hospitals are not vaccinated.

“Relying on antivirals or people who doubt the effectiveness of vaccines is a misinterpretation of the data,” said V. Zemlys-Balevičius about doubts from vaccine skeptics.

He recalled that the government had published an analysis of new cases of coronavirus in 14 days.

“It is very clear there that the rate of 100 thousand would not be vaccinated. The population is more than 500 and the number of vaccinated is around 100. So, we can say roughly that there are about five times fewer people in Lithuania who have been vaccinated, ”said the expert.

The efficacy of vaccines, as noted by V. Zemlys-Balevičius, is proven by the experience of other countries.

“In Lithuania, we have data: for seriously ill patients, our doctors from the Santara clinics did a study, they even published an article in a very good journal, and they saw that immunosuppressed patients are decreasing the effectiveness of the vaccine and need a third dose .

It is not yet available if the general population needs it. The problem with this epidemic is that the epidemic is evolving faster than scientists can see all the data and draw the correct conclusions, ”said a data scientist at Euromonitor International.

“It is perfectly normal for researchers to argue,” emphasized the interlocutor.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius did not hide the fact that it takes a lot of work in Lithuania to be able to assess the exact data of the pandemic immediately, because now the data is one month late.

“In both the UK and the US, younger patients are hospitalized. In the US, for example, there are childhood illnesses: pediatric hospitalizations in August were the highest peak in the entire epidemic period. August is historically the shortest period for the admission of patients ”, he affirmed.

Therefore, according to the expert, to say that the COVID-19 delta strain does not work in young people is too bold.

“From the data we obtain, hoping that the virus does not affect the very young and saying that the risk for the very young is zero seems too audacious to me. We must be prepared so that this is not the case, because the price of error is the price of life ”, emphasized V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

He also noted that the volume of vaccinations, which had risen sharply a few weeks ago, was declining again.

“A very favorite example is Sweden, Denmark, where there is no passport option, but vaccination numbers are significantly higher there. If we had the same vaccination rates as in Denmark and Sweden, we would probably not talk about the passport of opportunity. Unfortunately, in Lithuania (…) it is necessary to promote public awareness ”, admitted V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

He pointed out that we have two epidemics: vaccinated and unvaccinated.

“The unvaccinated delta epidemic is even worse than the one we had last fall,” said the expert.

The vaccinated epidemic, he said, has fewer people infected and hospitalized.

“We will have an unvaccinated epidemic that will harm us, occupy hospitals and we will have a much smaller epidemic of vaccinated nearby,” said the interviewee.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius stated that it is too early to talk about whether it will be necessary to limit the lives of vaccinated people.

“It just came to our knowledge then. People in other countries say exactly the same thing: we go back to what we said last year. We still have to be careful, especially with people who have children of school age,” emphasized the researcher.

As noted, it is no longer possible to stop the process of contact education, which means, as noted by V. Zemlys-Balevičius, that the coronavirus will inevitably spread among students.

“There will be a spread among the children. The question is, what size will it be? In the worst case, all the children will be overloaded and we can fully expect the entire population to hibernate in the delta variant because I do not control the propagation. That’s not good, but it probably will be. In the best of cases, we will be able to reduce the spread and then not all will change ”, said the expert.

However, everyone, both vaccinated and unvaccinated, should wear protective masks and avoid contact, he said.

“Going to a room without a mask in the event of an epidemic, even with an opportunity passport, is a measured risk. We run the risk of getting sick. You will get sick, you probably won’t go to the hospital, but you will get sick for a couple of days. That The risk is significantly lower, but the risk remains, ”noted V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

“Let’s prepare for the worst, hope for the best. In November we will see the real situation,” added the expert.