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“We take this situation very seriously,” says Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė.
“Those red lines have obviously already been crossed,” says Interior Minister Agnė Bilotaitė.
“In preparation for the Zapad exercise, we can get more provocations of this kind,” says Seimas spokesperson Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen.
This is how Belarus’ provocation was assessed on Wednesday, during which 12 of its border guards entered our territory. The rhetoric is sharp, although only one note has been sent to the Lukashenko regime.
“Lukashenko, for whom it is probably neither hot nor cold, like us, would probably not be very hot or cold because of his grades,” says Laurynas Kasčiūnas, chairman of the Seimas Defense and National Security Committee.
“I believe that law enforcement institutions should do their job first,” says A. Bilotaitė.
Former Special Operations Forces officer Aurimas Navys is surprised that we waste such strong words, but we do not accompany them with actions: “This is an unwritten rule, if you threaten, make sure you have the means to carry out that threat. Because if the line has already been crossed, what’s next? Possible actions, if we allow it, can only be aggressive. It’s half a meter now, one meter tomorrow, and tomorrow, if there are 10 meters left, what will we do then? ”.
One of the options available for Lithuania to act more strictly is the activation of Article 4 of NATO. In short, we would involve the Allies in finding a solution to the crisis.
“It just came to our attention then. As that strategic tool, a strategic demonstration that the Alliance is united, concerned about what is happening here, and implements it through its actions. The countries meet to discuss the situation at the level. policy and make those decisions. NATO is a huge machine. When it starts, it works. But it needs political support, “says A. Navys.
The Minister of National Defense, Arvydas Anušauskas, states: “As long as there is no military component, there will be no unusual military activities, massive military activities on the Lithuanian borders, very clear indications about the planned conventional operation, capacity, even in non-standard situations, as a hybrid attack, they clearly do not trigger in Article 4. “
Border guards say they record that not only their border guards but also soldiers are on the border with Belarus. It is true that the Lukashenko regime has not yet attempted to provoke the use of Lithuanian force. And it is the provocations, only more serious than now, according to the chairman of the Seimas Defense and National Security Committee, which would be enough to raise the alarm in NATO.
“An armed incident on the border, even on a local, limited scale, could already be a basis for appeal, perhaps even, say, a mass pushabck’as, or if Lukashenko will gather more illegal immigrants at the border and try to force force on our side, ”says L. Kasčiūnas.
Belarusian border guards have circulated a report attempting to deny the footage captured by Lithuania as its officers crossed the state border. There is no evidence of this in the video.
“The border guards are contacting each other and conducting a joint investigation into the border incident. We have not received it from Belarus in any case. And without saying there was a violation or not, can we say that they don’t know where the state border? ”- says Antanas Montvydas, the deputy commander of the border guards.
The former commander of the Armed Forces Arvydas Pocius affirms: “A meter, or half a meter, has entered our territory, it is a test of nerves. I think that if there are some serious steps, tests, provocations, then it will be possible to apply, so far I think there really is no need. “
According to A. Pocius, it may not be up to us to decide on the activation of NATO allies. By analyzing intelligence, NATO soldiers can warn that it is time for Lithuania to invite its allies to the table.
“It simply came to our knowledge then. Certain decisions will have to be made, what we are doing to help the country that has requested the activation of Article 4, concrete actions must already be underway,” says A. Pocius.
“It would already be the involvement of the West, the involvement of NATO at such a level that it would already take charge of the moderation of the situation, it would seek certain de-escalation routes with enormous structural power”, says L. Kasčiūnas.
The activation of Article 4 of NATO was previously proposed by the former commander of the Estonian Armed Forces. According to him, this would act as a deterrent for the Lukashenko regime and, at the same time, for Putin.
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