Dramatic changes in Afghanistan: public information was different from what happened behind closed doors

Military expert Darius Antanaitis says on Delfi TV’s “Daily Interviews” that what is happening now is, in a sense, a natural process.

“It just came to our knowledge then. What are the Taliban? In this case, what we are seeing is the capture of the old Taliban in 2001 – that is, I would say the opposition of the current government, and that is what is happening – the Taliban. It sounds very dramatic, of course, but basically we are seeing the locals not supporting the government forces and disguising themselves or moving in the direction of the factions that oppose the government. So after rejecting all the drama from the facts, I believe that what is happening is a natural process ”, assures the interlocutor.

It could have been a surprise

Professor Egdūnas Račius from Vytautas Magnus University says on the show that such speed of events could have come as a surprise to many observers.

“It was a surprise, as the vast majority predicted that the Taliban would occupy Kabul, but perhaps it was thought that they would do so in winter, and now it is summer. This is a surprise to many observers, because it has not been predicted that the Afghan army and government will be so disloyal and that so many citizens support the Taliban ideology, ”says E. Račius.

Asked how the interlocutor would describe the Taliban we are talking about these days, Račius assured that we have to talk about the opposition of the regime or the government, it is very broad, because otherwise it would be difficult to imagine how quickly and so easily that the opposition could come to Kabulo.

“It must be agreed that if we compare what the Taliban were in the last decade of the last century and occupied almost all the territory, with the so-called Taliban today, it is not in a certain sense day and night, but there are many differences in the ideological plane. Together I would say <...> The very broad front led by the Taliban, long joined by the Hakani network and ethnic Uzbek-Tajik armed groups operating in the north or recently launched, and the Taliban are certainly no longer the group Pashtun directed original that first promoted Pashtuns. code of honor mixed with the ethics of Islam, and now we see that, at least on a theoretical level, the Taliban present themselves as more civilized or humane.

We’ll see if it delivers on those stated promises, but for now at least, there seem to be quite a few differences even at this level. We really have to talk about the opposition of the regime or government, which is very broad, because otherwise it would be difficult to imagine how quickly and easily that opposition could have reached Kabul and occupy it with practically no battle, ”says E .Račius.

Much was left behind the closed door

When asked if the West might not appreciate Afghanistan’s weakness, E. Račius said he had never seen such messages break into the public eye.

“I would say that perhaps it was appreciated a lot behind closed doors, but at the level of public rhetoric, the Americans, the coalition and the European states tried not to panic, not to spread the word more than they say, and we saw that it was spoken in public in the hope that it will be resolved. The president was called in to negotiate, in fact, those negotiations took place practically all the time. It seemed that something could be resolved somehow differently, I mean, it was broadcast in public from this way and nowhere was it made clear that the Afghan government is completely inactive or that the army is completely disloyal. We have never seen such messages leaked to the public, but that does not mean that this information was not known, “says E. Račius.

When asked about the role of the president and how it could be, E. Račius assured that his political career was probably over.

“I believe that Ashraf Ghani has finished his political career one hundred percent, and neither the Americans nor other allies will want to continue working with him. We see that the former president, who has stayed in Kabul and announced that he will not leave, is willing to participate in the transitional government if the opposition that came to power allows it. Maybe it could be a person through whom the West can act, depending on how close that new government is, but Ghani’s letter has already expired, ”says E. Račius.

When asked about the role of the international community, E. Račius assured that it is not clear whether the international community will be united.

“The international community can always have a position and act on that position. The question now is how united the international community can be, starting with the UN Security Council, with China and Russia sitting at one side of the table and the United States, the British and the French sitting at each other. “It is difficult to wait for a common opinion and action to be reached, and we see that Russia and China are already flirting with the new government and have a slightly different approach,” he says. the interlocutor.

The question is who will fill the resulting void.

When asked what could have determined such speed, D. Antanaitis asserted that, in a sense, a void had arisen.

“With Afghanistan in mind, we need to talk about the social composition of Afghanistan. This is not a homogeneous state. It is ruled by tribes, various groups, including criminal groups involved in drug production, so care must be taken with the political composition of what is happening now. Actually, in my opinion, a void has arisen after the United States announced its withdrawal long ago. Now each of those factions wants to occupy as much territory as possible and fill that void. , because a little later they will have to fight for territory. So whoever gets the most out of Afghanistan will control the situation, “says D. Antanaitis in the program.

When asked if the Americans could have expected such abrupt changes in the country, Antanaitis said it was not surprising that the Taliban were moving at a tremendous rate, but rather the sudden collapse of the long-funded and trained Afghan army.

“I think every situation has at least two sides. In this case, I think the intelligence may have ‘wandered’ somewhere, but it is because it is intelligence that is not public. From what we see in public, yes, it was unexpected. I think it is not surprising that the Taliban are moving at tremendous speed, but the sudden collapse of the Afghan army and security forces, which have been prepared and funded for so long. There is something very strange here, it showed how real the Afghan government in real terms and how strong the influence was between the US and the EU, the NATO allies in Afghanistan. As soon as it left, everything fell apart and now new political movements are emerging, which are trying to occupy territories as large as possible “, says D. Antanaitis in the program.