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“The first impression is that not only the abnormal heat has ended, but also the hot summer weather. Such an impression is created by the southern cyclone passing through Lithuania today, formed in the Alpine region a few days ago. The precipitation zone of this cyclone now covers the entire territory of Lithuania, although most of the precipitation is expected to fall in the eastern part of Lithuania. By the end of the day, this cyclone is projected to have “spilled” half the monthly rate and more in some areas of the east.
These southern cyclones, which can form in different regions of the Mediterranean or the Black Sea and in the southern part of Central Europe, form a very important chain of moisture supply in the general atmospheric circulation. And there is a clear reason for this: in the Mediterranean and southern Europe, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is generally higher during the hot season than at higher latitudes, ”he says.
According to G. Stankūnavičius, southern cyclones enter the territory of Lithuania only under specific conditions of large-scale atmospheric circulation: the upper valley over central Europe and the ridges – over Eastern Europe and the Northeast Atlantic.
“As a large-scale pressure field structure will continue, at least one more cyclone in the south is forecast to hit Lithuania this week.”
According to him, preliminary data show that last July was the warmest in Lithuania since the beginning of instrumental measurements (monthly mean air temperature – +21.5 – +22.7 ° C).
“This month, in many places in Lithuania, it will probably be a record in terms of the number of hot days and tropical nights. On a European level, July was an anomaly not only in Lithuania, but also in much of northeast Europe.
The largest thermal anomaly (> 4.7 ° C) was found in the Leningrad, Pskov regions of Russia and in northeastern Estonia. However, this July was not so warm in all of Europe. In France, Switzerland, Portugal and the south of England, for example, monthly average temperatures have been below or below normal. “
The associate professor explained that rainfall was also very unevenly distributed on the continent: very large amounts fell (rates> 2 months) in western and southwestern Germany, eastern France, Switzerland, northern Italy, etc. , and the flooding and flooding caused by them had already been reported in previous years.
“In contrast, southern and central Finland, northwestern Russia, southern Bulgaria and Greece were dry. Hemispherically, the climate was abnormally cold throughout northern Siberia and the Canadian archipelago, and in addition to Europe, it was abnormally warm in Canada, the northwestern United States, and the Far East.
The southern cyclone, which has already brought rain today, will intensify and move to Karelia, and a wave of fresh sea air will flow to Lithuania, as well as the entire Baltic region. In the next few days the pressure will increase, so the continuous rain will stop, but in some days convective clouds will develop with short rains ”, predicts the climatologist.
He also claims that the climate will really be “Lithuanian”: during the day, the air temperature will rise to +17 – +22 ° C (on the seashore one degree lower), the nights will be relatively warm – +11 – + 16 ° C.
“At the end of the week, the anticyclone will intensify over the Barents Sea and the northeast edge of Europe, and the southern cyclone will approach the southern region of Europe, so Lithuania will be in the area of influence of these two structures … So if the temperature background does not differ much from other days, the distribution of precipitation is expected to be very uneven: there will be more in the southwest and the east wind will increase.
The nights already begin to lengthen in August, which makes night and morning fog (except on the coast) more common and decreases the probability of thunderstorms. In the first half of August, water vapor throughout Europe is expected to be higher than normal throughout Europe, with the exception of the Mediterranean, and atmospheric pressure is below normal in northern Europe. These anticipated conditions are favorable for a cooler and more humid climate in the Baltic region, ”says G. Stankūnavičius.
He also added that long-term forecast data shows that favorable conditions for anticyclogenesis are expected in Scandinavia at the end of the second decade and third decade of this month, but no stronger heat is forecast during this period.
“But the number of sunny days is likely to be higher than at the beginning of the month.”
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