In Lukashenko’s words, not only blackmail, but also accusations: offer measures to get the regime out of cancer

“I do not intend to expand too much by expressing some opinions. I will just say that everyone understands that if the Europeans want to cause problems for themselves because of those sanctions, they will. I have nothing more to add,” said the illegitimate President of Belarus, Mr. Lukashenko. , in early May in response to EU sanctions.

The EU has imposed sanctions on senior Belarusian officials, pro-presidential companies and businessmen at various stages. Mr. Lukashenko himself, his son Viktor, was on the list. And although it was a compromise solution, with many sanctions in practice for the future, Mr. Lukashenko was clearly outraged and threatened.

Early in late May, a Ryanair liner flying from Athens to Vilnius forcibly landed in Minsk, and Belarusian opposition blogger Raman Pratasevich and his friend, a Russian citizen studying in Vilnius, Sofia Sapeg, were flying in Vilnius, were kidnapped by regime officials, and then Mr. Lukashenko reacted to Western sanctions by deliberately diverting migration flows to Lithuania, causing a migration crisis.

However, Mr. Lukashenko himself finally acknowledges that such threats and actions have their price. As early as June, he warned that the country could face an economic recession due to sanctions, and in response, a state of war could even be introduced.

On July 13, Lukashenko had already complained to the Russian president about the sanctions: the illegal Belarusian leader, who arrived in St. Petersburg, traditionally sat with his hands in front of the cameras, consoled the “brutal Western behavior”, dared to endure the sanctions together, and Vladimir Putin simply bowed his head. But despite published details about supposedly favorable gas prices for Belarus in 2022 and the extension of Russia’s regular financial credit to the regime for another year, Lukashenko’s new maneuvers seem to indicate a desperation of the regime.

Minsk scams and weaknesses

One of the clearest signs that the Belarusian regime, which caused the migration crisis, is not only passively monitoring the reactions of Lithuania and other countries, became the messages published on Tuesday.

The first is Lukashenko’s interview with Sky News Arabia. It is no coincidence that the channel that broadcasts in Arabic was also chosen, which is also broadcast in Iraq, from where most migrants flow by plane to Belarus, and from there to Lithuania. It is no coincidence that Lukashenko, in addition to traditional accusations to the West, that they, and specifically Lithuania, Poland and Germany, are strangling “their country”, has taken the tactic.

“They imposed sanctions on us; they began to strangle my country, my people. I am the president of this nation. I must, after evaluating the situation, take some action so that the nations do not suffocate, so that the country is not destroyed. By taking such action, do you want us to defend you in such a situation?

Listen, the little ones are the least rare, ”said the head of the regime, who rigged the elections, asphyxiated the opposition and injured thousands of people and put them in jail. And then he “reached out a helping hand” to Lithuania.

“If you want to help yourself in this regard, don’t put a rope around our necks. “If they need help, we will provide that help, but not for free anymore,” Lukashenko said. Lithuanian head of diplomacy Gabrielius Landsbergis answered this succinctly.

“It just came to our attention then. We do not expect anything different from a terrorist regime. The answer is simple: if Minsk does not stop and continues to transport migrants, Lithuania will offer new sanctions,” said G. Landsbergis.

However, there was another scam in Lukashenko’s speech: that he was a criminal group in Lithuania involved in the transport of migrants. Mocking the regime’s reaction, Lithuanian National Defense Minister Arvydas Anušauskas emphasized in his account that A. Lukashenko “is trying to cover up people or officials from his environment with whose knowledge and direct participation and illegal transport to Lithuania is being carried out. cape.

“It has always been obvious to us, and the evidence is now abundant,” the minister said. It is true that so far Lithuania has not provided much evidence either; The most obvious can be considered a record published by SBGS, which shows how Belarusian border guards are trying to hide the footprints of migrants at the illegal border crossing.

Desperate attempts to rescue

Regardless of the details of the Belarusian regime’s involvement in migrant transport schemes, it is clear that Lukashenko did not accidentally lend a supposed helping hand to Lithuania, despite the fact that he himself has caused crisis after crisis since the rigged elections in August. past. In an interview with Sky News Arabia, he pointed to another important moment: Due to the sanctions, the Belarusian economy has already contracted by 3.5% compared to last year.

And this is a lot, given that last year the Belarusian economy contracted even further: exhausted by the coronavirus pandemic, which Lukashenko initially scoffed at and did not acknowledge, and then was further shocked when massive strikes broke out and IT specialists they fled the country. highly qualified personnel.

It is no coincidence that on Wednesday all the country’s ambassadors, who remain loyal to the regime and reside in other countries, were summoned to Minsk. The meeting was announced by the Prime Minister himself.
Vladzimir McKayy, who pointed out that the new strategy is aimed at “Asian, African countries” and that Belarusian diplomats will benefit from those countries, is that everyone will have to give a full report and will be personally responsible for the results.

Already at the meeting, Lukashenko himself recognized the need for “strategic adjustments” in foreign policy. Diplomats have been asked various tasks: first, they must explain the “genocide of the Belarusian nation, the Polish occupation” and other “facts” that have so far been hidden. This is said to be a great response to sanctions. “You have to defeat your opponent with his own weapon. On our side, justice and the courage of our ancestors,” Lukashenko explained the first task to some confused diplomats.

“We are waiting in this place as in the street in August-September to put in their place all those who look crookedly at our country and use an economic weapon,” he added.

The second task, already formulated previously: looking for new markets, investments, oral failure, is necessary where you want to get money that the regime lacks.

“Without exports, we will not survive. Let us not be intimidated by so-called sectoral sanctions. There will always be demand for our products. We just have to try a little harder, we will sell more of our products, we will solve the problem of sanctions,” Lukashenko denied in a prayer and acknowledged the damage. He threatened those who did not live up to his hopes or gave up telling them that “there will be no ceremonies”, they will be eliminated and not only. Last year, after the “re-election” of A. Lukashenko, several Belarusian diplomats left office in protest, leaving them without diplomatic rank or job.

A way to oppress Lukashenko

Such statements are not just an ordinary Lukashenko show. It is no coincidence that he received praise only from Patrick Poppel, a representative of the Ruskij mir and Suvorov Institute organizations in Austria, who introduced himself as a political scientist. The Austrian, who appreciated the Russian Empire and aggressive nationalistic attitudes, praised Lukashenko as “a strong national leader capable of defending the interests of his country.”

But even the Russian media once again ridicules Lukashenko, who apparently failed to agree on anything with Putin in St. Petersburg on July 13. This time, the new loan was approved on favorable terms for Russia and the price of gas was unchanged.

In the spring of last year, Lukashenko expected to trade at least $ 100 for 100,000. cubic meters of gas, but failed – you will still pay $ 128.5 per 100,000. cubic meters of gas. Belarus needs 18 billion. cubic meters of gas per year. This is already a major burden on the growing Belarusian economy, which has not included new sanctions in the calculations.

Therefore, Mr. Lukashenko’s threats should now be used against him. At least the director of the Vilnius Institute for Political Analysis is convinced of that. analyst Marius Laurinavičius. In his view, the sanctions imposed by the EU are ineffective simply because great harm is anticipated in the future. And now we must put pressure on Mr Lukashenko.

“Let’s start with the small things: if your carriers don’t get visas and it hurts them, the carriers on the other side of the border might not get lost. And then the railroads, the port, these are all the calculations of a group of experts. under the government, reviewing the alleged economic cooperation with Belarus, “said M. Laurinavičius. According to him, Lukashenko’s bitter threats to respond to this may be risky, but there is no guarantee that the regime will come up with nothing more than a migration crisis.

“It would cost us financially to stop current shipments of potash fertilizers, but it would be more expensive for him. The other thing is that in a few years we will still not have those cargo routes, because Russia will pass them through its ports, and we are not going to do that, as in crises, “said M. Laurinavičius. In his view, Russia has already set a stark example of punishing Lithuania for selling Mazeikiu Nafta by suddenly “breaking pipes”, and Lithuania has also dismantled the railway on the Latvian side. However, lawyers say they can devise more sophisticated measures to punish Lukashenko.

“No matter how unpredictable it is, it counts elementally: Until the proposed cargo diversion through Latvia paid off, it did not implement the threats. But in the end, Russia will pressure it and we have to pressure it now. It may not say. “I give up”, but it will hurt, it will start to count, “said the expert.

According to him, the real talks between A. Lukashenko and Putin have to do with the future of the Belarusian leader and the imminent fall of the regime; inevitably they will have to withdraw and the details are now being negotiated.

Therefore, even if, instead of Lukashenko, Lithuania almost inevitably receives another even more loyal Kremlin building on the border, the situation may stabilize. After all, if anyone else expected democracy to flourish in Belarus after the fall of the Lukashenko regime, it is no longer worth it now, without Europe paying much attention last year. But before that, everything has to be done to make Lukashenko feel even more moved by the stability of the base under his feet.