Belarus floods Lithuania with migrants: a look at Iraq: will Lukashenko be fooled?



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This indicates a few things. First, the majority of asylum applications are likely to be rejected. Second, migration flows are not expected to stop quickly. Third, Lithuania does not see or have any opportunity to speak to the Belarusian regime, which is specifically increasing pressure on Lithuania through immigrants.

Most of the newcomers are Kurdish.

The Foreign Ministry reported that Foreign Minister Gabriel Landsbergis has already spoken with his Iraqi and Turkish counterparts, and a visit to Baghdad and Ankara is scheduled in the near future. Turkey needs Turkey’s help to identify the migrants, as many of them enter Belarus on a flight through Istanbul and then “lose” documents upon arrival in Lithuania.

“We need the help of Turkey to identify the identity of a person, because people arrive in Lithuania without any documents,” says the Foreign Ministry.

Flights from Istanbul to Minsk fly daily, four times a day, but the vast majority of migrants arrive in Lithuania from Iraq, so Lithuania will need Baghdad’s help to return asylum seekers to their home country.

But even more interesting things begin here. Iraq is not a homogeneous state, it has an almost independent territory, Kurdistan, which has not managed to gain independence from Iraq.

According to Egdūnas Račius, a professor at Vytautas Magnus University and an expert on Islam and the Middle East, 98 percent. those arriving in Lithuania from Iraq are Kurds. This conclusion is reached regarding the language to and from which translation is required when border guards conduct initial interviews. Kurds are not Arab by ethnic origin, so they may not speak Arabic, but by religion they are mostly Sunni Muslims.

Colonel Vidas Mačaitis, deputy commander of the State Border Guard Service (SBGS), confirmed that Kurds are predominant among the migrants.

Belarus does not have an embassy in Iraq, but the honorary consulate of Belarus in Erbil, the capital of Kurdistan, does not formally have the right to issue visas. It is obvious that there are many applicants, because the consulate on Facebook repeats the information intended for the citizens of Kurdistan and all over Iraq that it cannot issue Belarusian visas and redirects to the website of the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Message from the Consulate of Belarus in Erbil on Facebook

“It is possible that the visas are issued through a state travel agency that has its own office in Iraq and divides the visas from left to right,” Professor Račius said, suspecting that the visas are still being distributed in Kurdistan and not in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad.

What is happening in Kurdistan that the Kurds are so eager to leave their country and go to the European Union? According to Professor E. Račius, there are indeed tensions in Kurdistan, but they are not such that we can assume that people are fleeing conflict or political persecution.

“We are talking about economic immigrants right now. Could it be so bad in Kurdistan that you have to think about political refugees? Yes, it really can be, but now it is not,” says E. Račius.

According to the professor, the Kurds hoped to create an independent state. In 2017, a referendum was held in which 92 percent. those with the right to vote voted for independence. The Kurdish wings of independence grew after the collapse of Iraq by the Islamic State, the collapse of the Iraqi army, and the ability of the autonomous Kurdistan army to resist it.

However, the secession was not supported by the Americans, much less the Turks, who have a long history of fighting the Kurds, and the Iraqi Supreme Court declared the referendum unconstitutional. Immediately after the referendum, Iraqi government forces entered the region, including the oil-rich Kirkuk province.

There is also a group from the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) fighting in Turkey, and Ankara is attacking Kurdish militant positions in northern Iraq from time to time.

Račius says that there are various levels of tension in Kurdistan: the first is between the two main Kurdish parties, the second is between the Autonomous Government of Kurdistan and the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), which is fighting against Turkey.

“There is no military conflict, but in economic terms Kurdistan is not doing well and independence has not been successful either, so apparently the opportunity to leave is tempting,” said the professor.

In total, around 5.4 million people live in Iraqi Kurdistan. Kurds, others around 3 million. located in areas not officially classified as Kurdistan in Iraq.

Organizing the return of migrants to Iraq will not be easy

Lithuania hopes to get Turkish help to identify many migrants, but it intends to negotiate the return with the Iraqi government, only the problem is that Iraq has not signed a readmission agreement with the European Union, and according to the analysis of the Court of Auditors European published in 2020., Iraq is among the 11 countries to which it is most difficult for the European Union to return asylum seekers.

For example, in the period 2014-2018, an average of 24.6 thousand people had to leave the European Union per year. Iraqi citizens, but the effective rate of return is 32 percent. In 2019, the recovery efficiency was reduced to 25 percent.

These figures seem to indicate that Iraq is not overly interested in actively participating in the return process. However, Laurynas Jonavičius, a professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University, says it’s better than doing nothing at all.

“Even if we maximize internal capacity, build a barrier on the border with Belarus, the external factor will still exist, so it has to be addressed in some way and negotiations are inevitable. Is it effective, another question, but there is still to be done?” said the interlocutor.

Laurynas Jonavičius

When asked if Lithuania could offer COVID-19 vaccines to Iraq or Turkey in exchange for cooperation on migration issues, L. Jonavičius agreed that this could be considered, as our country does not have too many negotiating opportunities to encourage these countries to cooperate.

The Foreign Ministry told tv3.lt that it could not disclose specific incentives, but acknowledged that it had prepared a full range of proposals for both Iraq and Turkey.

“I don’t think that both countries have a strong internal motivation to cooperate. He will probably say ‘Yes, of course’ in formal meetings, but the practice may be different. However, it is better than nothing,” says L. Jonavičius, noting that talks with Iraq and Turkey are almost the only possible option for negotiations, since Lithuania does not have the opportunity to speak with the Belarusian regime.

Professor E. Račius from Vytautas Magnus University also believes that it is necessary to negotiate with Iraq on the return of migrants. However, in his opinion, an even more effective strategy would be to speak directly with the representatives of the Kurdistan Autonomy.

De facto, it is an almost independent state. For the Iraqi interior minister to bow his head and say, “Yes, I understand, it is a problem” will not change anything. At best, he will call the Kurdistan Interior Minister and say, “Listen, maybe you can do something? Therefore, it would be useful to speak directly and directly ”, summarized E. Račius.



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