[ad_1]
M. Puida is convinced that the growth of cases can no longer be called a coincidence or a slight deviation; this is a new trend. “If a week ago we only saw a slight interruption in the number of cases, this week there were no doubts about the reversal of the trend.
The number of new cases skyrocketed so high that the effective R (how much one patient infects others) can be estimated at between 1.4 and 2.2. We have not seen such numbers since the NVSC collected data very reliably. It is true that yesterday’s incident with a disturbed data supply may affect the figures that are now being analyzed, so the analysis must be treated with caution ”, says M. Puida.
According to him, if we assume that the numbers are more or less correct and R is around 2.2, then in 30 days we will already have 1500 cases per day.
“Interestingly, scientists estimate that Delta R0 strains are about 5.0 and then multiply by 50 percent. For the immunized population we would have R = 2.5, which is close to the numbers we see now. Therefore, I would not rule out a version in which we are now seeing an extension of the Delta variant.
An interesting fact is that Klaipeda invaded the second place in terms of absolute number of cases after Vilnius. But knowing that the vaccination rate in Klaipeda barely reaches 37 percent, it is not surprising. There is a greater probability of a positive test in groups 20-29, 30-39 and 80+. So if you stop the increase in the number of cases now, you can have more than 80 patients in a month ”, warns the mathematician.
V.Zemlys-Balevičius also commented on the visible numbers.
“If this trend continues for a week, this week can be considered to be the start of 4 waves. It is good that hospitals are now empty, so doctors can still rest. The crucial question is whether this time the increase in new cases will be followed by the same increase in the number of hospitalizations. ” Facebooke wrote a data analyst.
He noted that the UK had answered in the negative to this question, did not expect an increase in hospitalizations and therefore did not take any further action. However, in his opinion, it would be irresponsible to do so in Lithuania.
“Because they (in the UK lrytas.lt Note) the percentage of vaccinated is significantly higher, especially among risk groups, this can be understood. I do not think it is possible to take such risks in Lithuania. But time will tell.
For now, those who have been vaccinated can live in peace. The vaccine protects not only against COVID-19, but also from the need to keep up with the news about COVID-19. And in a year and a half, they had to get bored. So if you want to live in peace, get vaccinated, “urged V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
