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The Kim Jong Un regime is now likely to take steps that will not provoke the US military. With 28,000 US soldiers in South Korea to protect South Korea from threats from North Korea, and much better weapons compared to Soviet-era weapons in North Korea’s arsenal. Furthermore, Kim Jong Un is believed to be looking for ways not to provoke anger in relations with China, which is a major geopolitical and economic benefactor of North Korea.
And yet, Pyongyang has plenty of options to put pressure on South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who has been calling for months to sit at the negotiating table and seek economic exchanges, but does not distance himself from a sanctions regime. global markets that suffocate North Korea’s weakened economy. Kim Jong Un is the first North Korean leader to engage in direct talks with the current US president. For what he now sees Moon Jae-in as an intruder who doesn’t meddle in his affairs, trying to be a bridge between himself and Donald Trump.
So far, the South Korean president has been reluctant to retaliate against the regime, and is unwilling to risk disappointing his supporters, who have been promised to unite the two Koreans. This is also the case given that trade between the two countries, which otherwise represented around 10%. The size of North Korea’s economy has shrunk to almost zero due to global sanctions imposed on Pyongyang for its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.
Here are some possible scenarios for the near future:
Even greater destruction
Kim Jong Un threatened to demolish South Korean-built structures at a North Korean mountain resort last October, saying they looked like “temporary tents in a disaster-stricken area.”
The Kimgangsan Mountain Complex, built by a division of the South Korean company Hyundai Group and closed to visitors for more than a decade, opened in 1998 as a symbol of cooperation between the two countries, which are still officially at war with each other. It is equipped with hotels, restaurants, shopping arcades and a concert hall. Moon Jae-in is actively urging North Korea to reopen the complex. Hyundai Asan Corp. claims to have invested a total of $ 767 billion. won ($ 653 million). In 2008, South Korean citizens were ordered to leave the complex after a 53-year-old South Korean tourist was shot by a North Korean soldier who strayed from an approved route.
Military action.
A few hours before North Korea blew up its South Korea liaison office building, the country said it was considering a “plan of action” to return troops to some areas of the demilitarized zone that separates the peninsula. On Wednesday, he made clear his intentions to deploy troops on his demilitarized side, where he had joint projects with South Korea.
It is an area in the western border city of Kesong, with a joint factory park and liaison headquarters, and a joint Kimgangsan Mountain Resort. Soldiers were removed from these locations to implement the aforementioned joint projects. The country, through the reopening of ten border posts, would violate the agreement reached by Moon Jae-in with Kim Jong Un in 2018 to reduce border tensions.
Olympic dreams
After the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea, during which both countries marched under a single flag, it seems unlikely that a similar procession will take place in Tokyo when the Summer Games are held next year. In 2019, both countries informed the International Olympic Committee that they were discussing a joint march and several joint teams. But after North Korea severed ties with South Korea this week, angered by flyers crossing the border against the Pyongyang regime, it is now almost impossible to coordinate anything in concrete terms.
Missile program development
Since 2019, North Korea has conducted tests on various short-range ballistic missiles that could attack the entire territory of South Korea, including US military bases. USA These solid fuel missiles are one of the new weapons prevailing under Kim Jong Unui, making them easier to hide and deploy than their older missiles. The arsenal also includes ballistic missiles with KN-23 nuclear potential to avoid the US missile peninsula. Kim Jong Un could step up the short-range weapons program to put pressure on Seoul.
Armed conflict
It is a high-risk option, but it has been used by North Korea on several occasions, most notably ten years ago, when 46 sailors were killed in a torpedo incident involving a South Korean warship; Also two months after the bombing of the South Korean island, two soldiers and two civilians were killed. Any attack when the limits are crossed can turn into war. The attack, which resulted in the deaths of South Korean citizens, nullifies any calls heard from the Moon Jae-in progressive camp to resume friendly relations on behalf of fraternal unity.
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