EU response to the political and human rights crisis: what innovations will the fourth sanctions package bring to Belarus?

Probably the first reaction of the EU after the illegal landing of a Ryanair plane was to prohibit Belarusian airlines from entering Belarusian territory. Furthermore, several EU countries immediately declared that their planes would also not be able to fly through Belarus, both for security reasons and to punish Belarus itself, as the latter would no longer be able to provide transit services. This position was shared within the European Union itself, which in turn called on all European authorities to “adopt the necessary measures to ban Belarusian airlines from EU airspace and prevent them from entering EU airports” . The European Union has also made an individual appeal to all EU carriers to refrain from flying over Belarusian airspace.

However, this ban could have serious consequences for the democratic opposition in Belarus and for civil society that remains in Belarus. Belarus, for its part, has further fueled its country’s isolation by restricting movement across its continental borders with all neighboring states except Russia. As a result, flights to the closest countries have probably remained the only way out of the country in the event of political persecution, and if this opportunity closes, Belarus could become a closed and isolated territory, which will be very difficult. for the people. does not want or cannot leave. It is true that the ban on Belarusians from leaving the country is not yet absolute and that the possibility of leaving Belarus outside the EU remains. It is for this reason that the intentions to travel to the countries of the South Caucasus or Turkey are heard more and more among the people of Belarus, as these are probably the only flight alternatives left today.

What innovations will the fourth sanctions package bring?

At the same time, in response to the crash landing of a Ryanair flight in Minsk last month and the arrest of journalist Romano Protasevičius, the European Union reached an agreement to impose a new package of sanctions on Belarus. The essential difference is that the sanctions previously imposed, as in the third sanctions package, were political in nature and targeted at specific individuals closely related to the regime. Despite the fact that the freezing of the accounts of influential politicians in European banks and the ban on travel within the EU have partly affected the economy of the country as a whole, the measures taken so far have aimed to avoid damage to the Rest of the countries. population. Although this measure is still in force and the list of sanctioned persons is constantly updated, including even the relatives of Alexander Lukashenko himself, the question remains the effectiveness of these sanctions. Furthermore, the EU has long limited itself to sanctions of a political nature and the continued risk that broader economic sanctions will force Belarus to turn even more towards Russia.

However, it is becoming clear that the measures taken so far have not fully met expectations, and this time the Belarusian economy is also under attack, given the calls of the Belarusian opposition and the unpredictable actions of Alexander Lukashenko. This is important from the perspective of the purpose of the sanctions themselves: they do not seek to punish the state in the most economical or political way possible, but are expected to change the behavior of the state. The EU foreign ministers meeting said that a large majority of EU member states support more sanctions, but that the EU still needs to gather sufficient evidence of the crimes of each individual and company to provide legally sound and accurate lists. of those responsible. Furthermore, these new sanctions are aimed at restricting potassium, which is Belarus’ main export material, and will limit the ability of EU countries to buy tobacco products, oils and petroleum-related products from Belarus. Naturally, this should harm not only Belarus, but also Lithuania, whose railways and seaports have been used for the transit and export of these products. On the other hand, in this way the behavior of Belarus is expected to change, and the passive reaction of Lithuania and the EU to the recent events in Belarus can be interpreted as a sign of weakness, which would further the actions of the regime. drastic in the future.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell also told MEPs that the European Union is likely to impose new economic sanctions on Belarus from June. If the EU governments reach an agreement at the political level, the sanctions list will be supplemented by a ban on new loans to Belarus, restrictions on the EU’s trade and investment relations with Belarus and a ban on banks from the EU provide investment services.

However, this is not the only economic instrument used by the European Union, since illegal presidential elections and persistent human rights violations have forced a review of the funding provided by the EU institutions to strengthen democracy in the country. As early as 2020, the European Union cut its trillion in direct financial aid to Belarus. In addition, Belarus received support as a member of the Eastern Partnership program and as a country affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is also important that the suspended support to Belarus reaches this country in another way: more than 24 million. Currently € 1 billion is being redistributed to NGOs and civil society organizations in the form of projects.

However, to respond to the problem of Belarus’ dependence on Russia, the exclusive and constant application of sanctions is not the most effective way to do it. Therefore, applying the principle of gingerbread and whip, gingerbread is represented in this case by a potential financial support package, but its use still depends on Belarus itself. In order to create a counterweight to the growing influence of Russia and at the same time motivate Belarusian society, the President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced in May this year that the EU would allocate up to 3,000 million euros to Belarus. EUR in the form of investments, projects and loans in case Belarus adopts a democratic governance model. Naturally, Alexander Lukashenko himself should resign in this case, as confidence in this politician in Belarus is one of the lowest in his entire term and his own actions are clearly not leading to democracy in the country.

Lithuania’s cry in the face of the migration crisis

When assessing the situation from a security perspective, both NATO and the European Union primarily seek to prevent an even deeper integration of the Belarusian army into Russian military structures, which could lead to the emergence of permanent Russian military forces and equipment on Belarusian territory. . However, a no less important security challenge for Lithuania has now arisen due to the illegal migration of third-country nationals to the territory of Lithuania. Naturally, this uncontrolled migration poses a risk of humanitarian crises, smuggling and even terrorist attacks.

Although Lithuania, in turn, has already provided additional funds and human capacities for the protection of its eastern border, it is clear that Lithuania has not yet faced the challenge of illegal migration on this scale. Furthermore, as this migration crisis is caused and supported at the state level in Belarus, it is not clear to what extent this problem may become in the future. The good news is that Lithuania’s cry for help in Europe has already been heard. The European Border and Coast Agency, Frontex, is currently sending its additional capacity to border guards, which is expected to reach at least 40 in the next month alone. Also noteworthy is the bilateral assistance promised by Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias, who visited Lithuania in June. According to the minister, Greece has already accumulated extensive experience in the field of illegal immigration management, so it is ready to help Lithuania both from a technical and an expert point of view.