Changes in party classification: Conservatives have resigned from leadership positions; experts see the risks of TS-LKD

The Baltic Studies polls conducted by the ELTA news agency from May 20 to June 2 show that if the Seimas elections were to take place in the near future, the Lithuanian Union of Greens and Peasants would have the most support from the population. The opposition party, led by Ramūnas Karbauskis, currently has 14.6 percent. population. Compare these indicators with survey data obtained immediately after the last Seimas elections in 2020. In October, support for the “peasants” remained virtually unchanged. Half a year ago, 13 percent supported the “peasants” who had fallen into opposition. population.

In second place on the leaderboard is the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party. After a historically unsuccessful performance in the Seimas elections, the Social Democrats elected Vilija Blinkevičiūtė as presidents and, according to polls at the end of May, they were among the leaders in the party rankings. Currently, 13.3 percent support the Social Democrats in the opposition. the citizens. This is 6.9 percentage points more than in the survey conducted immediately after the Seimas elections.

Meanwhile, the Union of the Homeland – Christian Democrats of Lithuania lost rank leader status during the semester in question. Since November last year, the Conservatives’ rating has dropped more than the poll error of 4 percentage points. Currently, the ruling majority party led by Gabriel Landsbeg has 11.5 percent. voters.

The rating of the other member of the ruling majority, the Freedom Party, fell by almost the same amount (4.1 percentage points). At present, the political force chaired by Aušrinė Armonaitė has the support of 3.6 per cent. Half a year ago, support for this party was 7.7 percent.

The Liberal Movement led by Victoria Čmilytė-Nielsen has managed to maintain a much more stable ranking since last fall. This party is currently supported by 8.6%, compared to 8.8% half a year ago. The Labor Party did not fundamentally change its position on the leaderboard. At the end of May, 7.9 percent expressed their support for this party. voters, and in October last year – 7.2 percent.
At the bottom of the leaderboard is the Freedom and Justice party led by Remigijus Žemaitaitis (supported by 3.4%) and the Polish Lithuanian Election Campaign, the Union of Christian Families (3.3%). The rankings of these two political forces have not changed substantially in the first half of the year.

According to the Baltic Research poll, a third (33.7%) of the respondents indicated that they would not participate in the Seimas elections or that they were undecided on what to vote for.

The loss of conservative ratings is not significant: the challenges for the party are much more fundamental

Commenting on the polls, experts say that the fact that the Conservatives have managed to cede leadership positions to “peasants” and Social Democrats in the rankings over the past six months is neither surprising nor alarming to the party leadership.

However, they agree, looking not so much at the changes in the rankings as at how the public responds to initiatives taken by the ruling majority, and the Freedom Party in particular, conservatives should draw conclusions. If it used to be repeated that a party can “fly” with different ideological wings at the same time, after a long debate on human rights or the concept of family, this attitude could be seriously tested.

Rasa Ališauskienė, director of Baltic Research, says that the position taken by conservative leaders in support of the Association Law or the Istanbul Convention may not be to the liking of a part of the electorate of the older party in particular. The sociologist does not rule out the possibility that part of the conservative electorate, especially one that is particularly skeptical about the initiative to pass an Association Law or support other similar issues, simply will not renounce their vote for the party in the next elections.

“It just came to our knowledge then. They may not vote at all, because normally a conservative voter does not choose another party. If someone has already angered him, then he will not go to the polls at all,” R. Ališauskienė told Eltai.

According to her, issues related to traditional values ​​are very sensitive, so it is not surprising that people react extremely abruptly to such discussions. In other words, disagreements about the concept of family or human rights are precisely those issues that are crucial to define the identity of the party with which the community identifies. So it is only natural for the conservative electorate in recent discussions of the Association Law or something. conceptual questions arise.

“They have a question of identity, because now there is no single position in the party. In a sense, it turns out that the Conservatives are not even a party, but a coalition of parties, ”said R. Ališauskienė.

Meanwhile, the position of both the Liberal Movement and the Freedom Party in this regard is clear. Some people may not like it, but at least it’s clear what people are reacting to, ”added the director of Baltic Research.
In other words, a conservative voter who observes the dominant party debate on some issues of value may feel that the party is too liberal. Meanwhile, to others, on the contrary, it may appear that conservatives, by defending postmodern values, are moving away from the conservatism that is appropriate for the party.

“In the end, it turns out that there is no one left to support the middle position. Some want black and some want white, and gray doesn’t suit anyone, “he said.

R. Ališauskienė was seconded by the political scientist from Mykolas Romeris University, Rima Urbonaitė. According to her, as clashes between traditional and modern values ​​continue to dominate the political agenda, the climate of frustration among the conservative electorate may grow.

“It seems to me that there may be frustration on both sides. But it’s hard to say how frustrated you can be. Still, I think the problem could get worse in the long run. Therefore, we must think about solving this problem now, “R. Urbonaitė told Eltai.

Meanwhile, commenting on May’s ratings, the political scientist did not point to a decline in Conservative support.

“The fall in the rating of the Conservatives is not significant. I do not think that such a fall for the ruling parties from November to May is really dramatic,” he said.

R. Ališauskienė has the same opinions. According to her, it is also important to assess the fact that the ranking of the first three matches in the leaderboard is quite similar.

“The difference between the conservatives and the socialists and the peasants is not great. It is always easier for the opposition to criticize and please people. Therefore, in this sense, the fact that the ruling party loses support is not very strange, ”added R. Ališauskienė.

That is why, according to a political scientist from the MRU, the opposition “peasants” should not have many excuses to be happy about the changes in the rating table.

“They are stuck in their rankings. Yes, they were formally in first place, but here there is nothing to be happy about, because since November they have basically remained in the same position,” said R. Urbonaitė.

V. Blinkevičiūtė led the Social Democrats on the qualification growth wave: but everything can stop quickly.

Meanwhile, the only ones who can rejoice in the latest Baltic Studies polls are the Social Democrats led by V. Blinkevičiūtė.

Both experts agree that it is the new president of the party who has recently dragged the Social Democrats to the rankings.

“His return to national politics, of course, marks a change for the party,” said R. Ališauskienė.
The sociologist noted that the authority of a leader is especially important for party rankings, and the image of V. Blinkevičiūtė, she emphasized, in a sense has more potential than, for example, R. Karbauskis. They are the “peasants” led by R. Karbauskis since 2016. He took over part of the electorate that had previously voted for the LSDP.

“Karbauskis is not a favorite among supporters of other parties in Lithuania, he is popular with relatives or those who vote for the” peasants. “Meanwhile, Blinkevičiūtė’s rating is much broader, representatives of other parties also like ”Said R. Ališauskienė.

However, according to R. Urbonaitė, although the sharp rhetoric of V. Blinkevičiūtė recently dedicated to the government of I. Šimonytė works and increases both his rating and that of the party, the inertia that has arisen in the long term may extend.

“I don’t think we should play with that because soon everyone will start asking: what do you offer? If the proposal phase does not start, growth will stop quickly, ”said R. Urbonaitė.

The survey was conducted in 2021. May 20 – June 2. During the research, 1018 Lithuanian residents (aged 18 and over) were interviewed through personal interviews and 112 sampling points were taken. The composition of the respondents corresponds to the composition of the Lithuanian population aged 18 years and over by sex, age, nationality and type of settlement. The opinion of the respondents shows the opinion of the Lithuanian population aged 18 and over. The error of the research results is up to 3.1%.