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German Chancellor Angela Merkel told a meeting of the European Council (EVS) that the bloc needed a direct dialogue with Russia, “because conflicts are best resolved when talking to each other.”
French President Emmanuel Macron has said that warmer relations with Moscow are “necessary for the stability of the European continent.” He has repeatedly called for dialogue with Russia in the past.
EU-Russia summits have not been held since 2014, when Russia occupied the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine.
However, the meeting will not take place: the leaders of the Central and Eastern European countries opposed it.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda said such a meeting “would send a very bad message” to Lithuanian society and the Eastern Partnership countries.
Photo by Sigismund Gedvila / 15min / Gitanas Nausėda
Latvian Prime Minister Krishna Military said that “the Kremlin does not understand free concessions as a sign of strength.”
“Unresolved issues”
Estonia Stefano Braghiroli, a political scientist at the Johan Skytte Institute for Political Studies at the University of Tartu, believes that the EU-Russia summit will not solve any problems, but will only increase them.
“If we pay attention to the discussions about the meeting, Biden’s meeting with Putin was mentioned, there was talk of continuing to rebuild the bridges. However, the meeting between Biden and Putin was not necessarily aimed at rebuilding the bridges, but rather clear things up. <..>
Biden’s main mantra for meeting Putin was not dialogue, but rather speaking clearly and putting levers on the table. At press conferences, Putin seemed more willing to accept, less willing to stand up to Biden than Biden. 15 minutes S. Braghiroli said.
According to the political scientist, what the United States as a superpower can offer Russia is not the same as what the EU can offer.
VIDEO: A meeting between Putin and Biden took place in Geneva: there was no hostility
Professor Dovilė Jakniūnaitė, a professor at the Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Science (VU TSPMI), says that the most important question remains what the French and Germans had in mind and why did they try to host a meeting.
“We will not know, because the meeting will not take place. The decision and the chosen moment are strange ”, said the professor.
Tensions in EU-Russia relations have recently increased. Last summer, the regime poisoned Novičiok, the Kremlin’s most prominent critic, with Alexei Navalna, who was being treated in Berlin. As soon as he returned to Moscow, he was immediately imprisoned and the Community extended sanctions against Russia.
In the spring, it was announced that Russian agents were responsible for two life-threatening explosions at a munitions depot in the Czech Republic in 2014. In solidarity with Prague, some EU countries, including Lithuania, sent Russian diplomats.
Photo by Lukas Balandis / 15min / Dovilė Jakniūnaitė
According to VU TSPMI professor Laurynas Jonavičius, it is very difficult to say whether such summits could be useful in the future, “because it depends on who is told at that meeting, what positions were taken.”
According to Braghiroli, Russia has not changed its behavior recently: it does not comply with the Minsk agreements on eastern Ukraine and continues to be aggressive towards its neighbors.
“If something has changed, it is only bad, because, for example, the events in Belarus cannot be completely separated from what is happening in Russia,” he said.
Photo by Vidmantas Balkūnas / 15min / Stefano Braghiroli
Does the dialogue make sense?
On Friday, Merkel reiterated her position that a “sovereign EU” could speak to Russian President Vladimir Putin, as US leader Joe Biden recently did.
However, Braghiroli says that for dialogue to take place it is necessary for two people to speak: “Inviting dialogue for nothing, maintaining dialogue solely for your support, is traditionally understood in Russia as a sign of weakness.”
Braghiroli recalls the last meeting between representatives of the EU and Russia, when the head of community diplomacy, Joseph Borrell, visited Moscow “without a clear agenda and a mockery.”
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D.Jakniūnaitė states that dialogue is often understood as a value.
“It is said that the only topic that can be discussed is climate change. This is a very convenient dodge. You can find items that fill the agenda, but it is not clear what the consequences would be. ” 15 minutes declared D.Jakniūnaitė.
“Any concession will be presented as a concession from the West, not from Russia. Putin would benefit from a meeting (with EU leaders). That would be an acknowledgment that Russia is important. No matter how much he hits it, then the turn around and start talking to her, ”he added.
L. Jonavičius believes that there must be channels of conversation.
“A lot of people think of indulgence when they hear talk (with Russia), but it is not necessarily like that. Talking is also an expression of demands and positions. The form and content of the conversation are very important. If we look at it historically, it was always talked about also during the Cold War.
This is one of the tools to regulate relationships, to make them more predictable. I would not turn it down, ”said the VU TSPMI speaker.
According to Braghirol, the desire of France, Germany and other Western and Southern European countries for better relations with Russia is partly determined by economic interests. Furthermore, in understanding the geopolitics of liberal democracies, there is a common desire to always leave the door open.
VIDEO: D. Peskov: We welcome the initiative to resume the EU summits with Moscow
At the same time, “there is a strong geopolitical understanding in the Baltic countries that Russia may pose a threat,” says Braghiroli.
Would it make sense for the EU and Russia to speak at the highest level about a crisis-ravaged Belarus, in which Moscow has great influence? L. Jonavičius believes that this is already being discussed.
Photo by Lukas Balandi / 15min / Laurynas Jonavičius
“It just came to our notice then. If the EU asks that something be done jointly for Belarus, Russia will raise its conditions, it could be demands that allow it to do something in other areas. Russia simply will not withdraw from Belarus.
To remove Lukashenko from power, something will have to be done with Russia. The question is: what will happen after Lukashenko? What will Russia, Europe do then? Future goals will be quite different, “said the political scientist.
After announcing in August last year that Belarus’ supposedly re-elected autocrat Aliaksandr Lukashenko had been overwhelmed, mass protests were cracking down on the country, suppressed by the crackdown. Despite criticism of the regime from the international community in Minsk, the Kremlin expressed support for Lukashenko and made the necessary loans to survive his regime.
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