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Raimondas Lopata, a member of the Seimas National Security and Defense Committee (NSGC) and chairman of the Committee of the Future, who participated in the Delfi program, assessed the current refugee crisis as an attempt by the Belarusian regime to destabilize the border situation. the borders with Belarus are not equipped with video cameras and the like, making it difficult to monitor that large area.
“What shows that this can be planned is the absolute failure of the Belarusian side to speak with our border services, the lack of response to their requests to clarify a lot of things and similar processes. destabilizing. Even more so when it was predicted a good six months ago that, in the case of certain events, a refugee card could be used in relations with Lithuania, “said R. Lopata.
One indicator of the seriousness of our approach is money.
Former Foreign Minister Petras Vaitiekūnas said that the refugee problem is one of the provocations used against us by the Lukashenko regime and the Kremlin.
“We must prepare for further provocations from the Kremlin. An indicator of the seriousness of our approach is money: whether the budget money will be used to repel and deter provocations from the Kremlin and Lukashenko. The means of deterrence are very diverse, that is, both punishment and defense, ”said P. Vaitiekūnas.
During the show, the interlocutor approached the Seimas member R. Lopat and asked him to raise the question of the need to review the program budget items for the security and deterrence of Lithuania. This is what is assigned to the Ministry of National Defense, the border, spec. services, the police.
“It is necessary to take this very seriously, because increased tension is also dangerous due to the fact that unpredictable things can happen,” said P. Vaitiekūnas.
Belarusian services close their eyes and lie
The diplomat explained that the usual route of refugees to Western Europe runs through Belarus.
“It can certainly be used by Belarusian and Russian spec. Services. But the problem now is that refugees at the EU border are no longer caught by Belarusian border guards, police and customs. Their services close their eyes and Furthermore, when the refugees run towards us, they lie that they have not seen those refugees, there are roughly swept trails.
As a member of the Seimas said, the Belarusian side is simply not communicating. This shows that the provocations are conscious. And it’s not just the refugees, but probably also the drugs, and something possible: the flow of weapons, ”explained P. Vaitiekūnas.
It’s not just about political refugees
MP Lopata explained that the goal is to use modern technologies to solve this problem.
“The esteemed signatory has applied here, but it has already been decided to allocate 20 million. “There are also plans in terms of logistics for cooperation between the border, the army and other units, and the cooperation itself is already underway,” said R. Lopata.
Among other things, during this migration crisis, the parliamentarian sees the regime’s attempt to make a profit.
“A lot of money is spent on cross-border transfers. I am not sure about arms smuggling, but about other types of smuggling, such as tobacco products, which constitute a significant part of the Lukashenko regime’s budget, and indeed those attempts are obvious.” Lopata said.
According to him, this poses another challenge: equipping customs with modern means.
There are two important aspects to consider when thinking about Belarus
Former Foreign Minister P. Vaitiekūnas said that in general the Belarusian equation has no solution if we do not take into account the influence of Russia and without the voice of the Belarusian nation.
“We must understand that all these very dangerous provocative games are not played by Lukashenko himself. Lukashenko has renounced sovereignty and has become a secondary figure in Belarus.
It is clear that our sanctions will not change Mr. Lukashenko’s own policies, and Mr. Lukashenko will not become a legitimate president. We have to think about how to perceive, create a positive strategy in relation to this situation, because sanctions are not a strategy ”, emphasized P. Vaitiekūnas.
The interlocutor believes that the provocations will change, new provocations will arise.
“We need to combine punishment, deterrence and defense. Also think about how to reduce losses,” said P. Vaitiekūnas.
Astrava’s problem didn’t go away
In the context of these tensions, the issue of the Astrava nuclear power plant has not lost its relevance either.
“Regarding Astrava, it is vital to reach an agreement between the three Baltic states. Without the agreement of the three Baltic states, we can only make the situation worse, which is what the Kremlin is trying to do,” said P. Vaitiekūnas.
Deputy Lopata recalled that those who now talk a lot about this problem did little when it was possible to solve it.
“And now it is really a relationship manipulated by Russia. I think only Lithuania’s unilateral actions (with the help of the EC) can solve this problem. There are simply no measures with a different effect, because the Latvians are not yet ready to put themselves Okay, ”said R. Lopata.
Response measures are required
Interlocutors on the show were wary of predictions about what else the unpredictable Lukashenko regime could take.
“When it comes to provocations, smart people say you can’t provoke and you can’t give in to provocations in the same way. However, it must be remembered that every provocation by Lukashenko, which means the Kremlin, is an examination. It is a test for us, if we react and how we react, if we withdraw and free space for a new attack. Therefore, any provocation must be answered, “said P. Vaitiekūnas.
In your opinion, this should be done asymmetrically.
“If they provoke us, as we are talking about now, by allowing illegal immigrants and encouraging drug smuggling into EU countries, we must introduce asymmetric responses to these actions, such as adding more people from the Belarusian regime and companies to sanctions lists, possibly introducing sectoral sanctions “. , freezing of accounts, raising these problems in the UN and other international organizations. And of course the Lukashenko tribunal is also a sufficiently convincing asymmetric measure against Lukashenko’s provocations, “said P. Vaitiekūnas.
The letters fell into Putin’s hands
Congressman Lopata regretted that the West had not prepared in advance for this kind of challenge, but had no doubt that the losses of imposing sanctions on, say, the fertilizer industry were being calculated.
“At the EU level, we have introduced a flight restriction on Belarusian airlines, and now we see that Russia is likely to buy the bankrupt ones. In other words, there are many ingredients that have been thought about for a long time. Now we see the image once more, but we don’t know how to complete it, ”Lopata said.
A member of the Seimas said he couldn’t predict what else Lukashenko would take.
“If we say that Lukashenko’s regime is unpredictable, I cannot answer that question because it is really unpredictable. From what you see now, the cards have fallen into Putin’s hands. If he intends to heat up relations with the West, he will be the mediator who will remove him. Lukashenko or force him to imitate one thing or another, which Europe can see as a sign of reconciliation.
In addition, the EU itself has proposed (without introducing some sanctions and thinking about a wider range of sanctions) and gingerbread: 3 billion. of measures to democratize Belarus. Such a game is happening now. At the moment, everyone is waiting for the meeting between Biden and Putin, what will be discussed in Belarus or not, “said Lopata.
The Kremlin is also responsible for Lukashenko’s actions.
Former Foreign Minister Vaitiekūnas is convinced that Lukashenko is not the main actor in this situation.
“The main actor is the Kremlin. We must seriously prepare for informational provocations, provocations in the field of energy and cyberattacks, trying to hack our, above all, the functioning of the Internet, trying to introduce chaos in state institutions, companies banks, I think this is very real.
As Mr. Lopata said, we have to think about how to reduce, redirect or compensate for the losses that our companies will suffer as a result of the blockade. However, I have no doubt that deterrents should be used despite the losses. Because if we don’t use them, the expanding aggression will cost us more than one or another means that we use now, ”said P. Vaitiekūnas.
According to the interlocutor, the Kremlin is responsible for the actions of the Lukashenko regime.
“Those sanctions should be applied to the Kremlin because it tolerates and encourages Lukashenko’s provocations. As I said, the Belarusian equation would be incomplete without the Belarusian nation. We need to help Belarusian civil society, dissidents, opposition and non-governmental organizations,” he said. P. Vaitiekūnas.
According to the interlocutor, it is disappointing that the EU is not taking the initiative on these issues.
“It means that we must reach out to other actors to take more initiatives. First, it is the presence of the United States in the region. But we must not forget Ukraine, Poland and the three Baltic countries. If we allow a gap to be created between the EU, between Lithuania and Ukraine, between Lithuania and Poland, between Lithuania and the two Baltic states, it will be our defeat.
One or another strong concrete project, in which the United States, Ukraine, Poland, Latvia would participate, could fundamentally change the situation, but those projects need courage, ”said P. Vaitiekūnas.
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