Warns: nothing will be heard – Lukashenko will definitely come to the end

Former Chancellor Linas Linkevičius says on the “Facts and Opinions” program that the sanctions against Belarus and the pressure on this country must be, and the current international response is too weak.

“In my opinion, the international community is reacting too little and too slowly to what is happening there, and if it were to give up the only lever, that is, sanctions, then there would only be surveillance, and that would be wrong, both morally and politically, the purpose of sanctions is to make the regime feel the price for what is happening, but this requires directing the arrows at the regime itself, at those who finance it, who are in the environment.

If the leader, as we can see, is not the right one, to put it mildly, we still have hope that others who have not committed those crimes will not be the same ones who will continue to live in that country, what they hope later or I intend to to do it, to live in a surreal environment, or to see some future and perhaps imagine it not only geographically but also in other ways. There really has to be pressure. And not like now, because, like I said, now he’s weak, ”says L. Linkevičius.

When asked if this would push Lukashenko further into Putin’s arms, the former minister assured that if Lukashenko was not so naive, he understood that sooner or later Putin would no longer need him.

“It just came to our knowledge then. The paradox is that there is no other path, and it is even possible to make all the theories that it may be worthwhile for Putin, but I will repeat it again: Lukashenko has already chosen this path, now he does not know. will sit on the fence and play with both sides. He chose the only option for the protection of the sponsor, because he does not see other ways, but if he is not naive, he must realize that such support will not last indefinitely, because Lukashenko will not need Putin to long term “. says L. Linkevičius.

EHU spokesman Maxim Milta also praised the Western sanctions against Belarus.

“The Western response is not only too slow, but also too small, so it would be difficult to assess the economic impact of those sanctions. I think it will be very important not only on the third day of June (when the US sanctions go into effect ), but also at the next Foreign Affairs Council on June 21 and, most importantly, if the level of rhetoric that we see in the last two weeks will be real, ”says Mr Flour.

Where is Lukashenko’s weakest place?

When asked where Lukashenko’s most painful place is, Laurynas Jonavičius, a political scientist at VU TSPMI, says that the most painful place is related to the oil roads.

“It is a very good question that is difficult to answer. It may seem to us that if we cross, we will impose those common sanctions on the West, we will harm Lukashenko. Yes, it will probably hurt you, but your perception of pain and cost-benefit analysis is a little different than we might imagine. I believe that, at this stage, he, as a dictator and leader, is willing to suffer greatly and to ignore that society as a whole will suffer as a result. This must be clearly understood ”, says L. Jonavičius.

According to him, the most painful places are related to the closure of oil roads.

“There are figures that show where the Belarusian budget gets more income from, we are talking about the export of petroleum products, the export of potash fertilizers. If we now look a little deeper at how this relates to income, then the potash fertilizers from Belarus travel first to Brazil, India, China, the United States, maybe 5 percent. or similarly constitute imports of those potash fertilizers from Belarus. Consequently, it is not a direct effect.

Clearly, there is the issue of transit, the appreciation of all that export, because now it is passing through the Baltic ports, and if sanctions were introduced, new routes would have to be sought, those routes would probably be found through Russia. This would increase the price but allow it to survive.

In the case of petroleum products, perhaps the most painful direct hit, since the largest buyers are men, British and British, but they are not usually final buyers, they are transit branches through which petroleum products are generally distributed globally and they usually return to Poland or Ukraine. Closing the roads for these oil products would probably be the most painful in financial and economic terms, ”says the interlocutor.

Linkevičius: Lukashenko already needs to think of ways to retire

When asked if Putin needed such a weakened Lukashenko or if he wanted to replace him as soon as possible, Linkevičius assured that the picture needs to be seen more broadly, as Russia plays a key role here.

“He’s already doing what he wants with him and he’s been doing it for a long time. In fact, one can guess and assume that certain methods are being tested through it, which you can try to test later.

So many things are happening, and let’s not forget that twenty years of life is a joint contract, and many might wonder why so long; when now it is weak, vulnerable and unable to resist <...>, it will take advantage.

We must all note this and draw the attention of the international community to the fact that all those deals, contracts and agreements when they travel to Sochi there, it is not clear what they sign or do not sign, they cannot be recognized, ”says the former minister. .

According to him, Lukashenko now has almost no choice but to step back.

“Given Lukashenko’s situation, he already needs to think of ways to retire and, apparently, join his colleague Yanukovych somewhere in the near future, because he will have practically no other choice.” We need to think about what the change means. When we say that if the regime releases the prisoners and holds new elections, then we can make friends and everything will be fine, we must bear in mind that everything will be fine if those elections are transparent and some invading force. , another leader with a different name, who will not be as strange as this one, and the country will move on and the goal will be achieved. These options cannot be ruled out either, ”says L. Linkevičius.

According to M. Milta, the sanctions generally imposed by the West lasted a year or a couple, and then the trading of companies began.

“It just came to our attention then. Nothing is eternal under this sun, however, I imagine that until now we have never taken any measures that compel and encourage the deterrence of this regime. Even if we look at the entire history of relations between the West and Belarus. Although Lukashenko’s first visit was to Paris, in principle, from 1997 to 1999, we have constantly seen certain sanctions, broader or more stringent, “says Milta.

“Three hundred days have passed since the elections in Belarus on Friday, and so far we have no economic measures to impose on Lukashenko in Brussels. This is shameful. Of course, other countries also have an important role to play here: Poland, Lithuania as well, but there are still actions that are only possible with a common position in Brussels ”, says M. Milta.

Journalist: You can never be sure that you won’t be stopped at that customs office, you don’t know anything and they won’t take you somewhere in the forest

Journalist Angelina Gudkova also praised Belarus’ decision to shut down the program.

“Many Belarusians constantly travel to Lithuania, Poland and Latvia. Well, in Lithuania and near Ikeos, we see Belarusian cars and things like that,” says the journalist.

“Many Belarusians work abroad because they cannot earn enough money to support their families, so they go abroad to earn money. And now only people who work abroad or those who have a permanent residence permit in a foreign country have the opportunity to leave Belarus, but they can do it twice a year.If we imagine a guy who has left his family in Belarus and can only see them twice, then the horror is here.

I, as a Belarusian, find it difficult not to see my family for so long, I am terrible to go to Belarus now because I will have to show my employment contract at the border and they will see that I am Belarusian, I work in foreign media because I am a journalist and that. it can cause problems. You can never be sure that you will not be stopped in that office for nothing and that you will not be taken anywhere in the forest. He just made the Belarusians hostage and tried to manipulate them, it seems to me that way, ”says A. Gudkova.

According to her, thousands of people will suffer.

“I think there are thousands, tens of thousands of people who work abroad and are affected, especially students who go to Poland, to study in Lithuania,” says the journalist.

According to L. Linkevičius, Lukashenko is currently trying to intimidate people.

“It just came to our knowledge then. The arrest of Pratasevičius despite nothing, and now that closure, wants to intimidate, and that those who have at least the idea of ​​resisting and manifesting it in public would not. It is obvious that here is a message that nothing will be ignored, it will definitely come to the end, ”says L. Linkevičius.