Why Belarus is closing its borders: The regime is announcing that it is closing its roads and no one will help anyone.

“Recent Sharpening”

Vilnius Institute for Policy Analysis analyst Marius Laurinavičius Delphi He said Wednesday that the action is part of a repressive plan.

“It just came to our knowledge then. The act itself is repressive: restricting the freedoms of the people. But this may still be related to the obstruction of the departure of those whom the Lukashenko regime intends to detain in the future. He hopes to clarify.We probably don’t fully understand what the Ramanas Pratasevičius arrest operation means.

Small at least related only to him. Apparently, there were even reports on his computer that he could certainly find individuals, or at least the extremes, where to look for the individuals who passed him information: members of the regime secretly collaborating with the opposition. I think it may really be related to what they expect, what they have already found on that computer. ” Delphi M. Laurinavičius said.

The interlocutor stressed that this is not the only reason.

“They are constantly trying, a recent escalation, trying to just physically neutralize everything but everything related to those protests. This is where the decision to temporarily close those borders can really be related. There may be other reasons: intimidation, “he said.

M. Laurinavičius stated that if the repressive regime decides to “clear the field” of any outbreak of protest as much as possible, then the decision to close the borders is “understandable enough”.

“It just came to our attention then. One should look at the big picture, not focus on the possible causes that I have listed.” Everything is probably complex and everything is together, “he said.

Belarus declares that this decision will be temporary. However, according to M. Laurinavičius, it is difficult to predict how long it will last.

“It is difficult to predict without knowing their real plans. It can last for a very short time: weeks. And it may take longer. I did not know how many years the Soviet Union was closed, “said the director of the Vilnius Institute of Political Analysis, analyst M. Laurinavičius.

“There are no factors to say that it will be short or long here.”

Laurynas Jonavičius, a professor at the Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Science (VU TPSMI), also claimed that such a decision by Belarus could have been caused by various reasons.

According to the interlocutor, the first possible reason is the desire to isolate oneself.

“For the most part, it is about further isolation of the country and its people from external influences and even external isolation from information about what is happening in Belarus. Of course, it is not possible to achieve this in that way, but All the steps, which recently further restricted the media’s ability to report, have made a list of things that cannot be written about. And now the opportunity to leave is still closed. This is the first aspect of its kind: the isolation, “said L. Jonavičius, representative of VU TPSMI, about the Belarus decision.

According to the interlocutor, this may be the psychological reaction of the regime towards the West.

“The West is saying that it will accept and help journalists, all those who are being persecuted, with political problems, so to speak. The regime shows that it is in control of the situation, it closes the roads and no one will help anyone, so to speak. say it.

And the third message is a threat to people. We will use all means: beatings, torture, arrests, fines and many other things that they (residents, aut. P.) will not hear, they will see and they will be able to persecute even better. Translator mode ‘, – possible reason was mentioned Delphi interlocutor L. Jonavičius.

How long will this “temporary” decision last?

“There are no factors to say that it will be here for a short time or a long time,” he said.

L. Jonavičius stated that at this time Lithuania does not have a formal opportunity to help the remaining people in Belarus.

“Except to raise this issue in international formats. There will likely be convictions and lawsuits to lift it. But there are no real instruments to force a change in the Belarusian regime. The regime is thus likely to increase its bargaining power. If you reverse that decision, it will show that you seem to be improving. There is such a possibility ” Delphi L. Jonavičius, professor at VU TSPMI, said on Wednesday.

Just a few exceptions

Delphi recalls that on Tuesday the Minsk regime further restricted the ability of citizens to leave the country, and the opposition condemned the measure as an “absolute violation of the law.”

The ban also applies to Belarusian citizens with residence permits abroad.

The move came in recent months after dozens of Belarusians fled the country, brutally cracking down on opposition from the Minsk regime following an unprecedented wave of protests sparked by the re-election of authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko, unrecognized by Western democracies. , in August of last year.

In a statement posted on the Telegram platform, the Belarusian Border Guard Service stated that “it has recently received a large number of applications to leave Belarus on the basis of an existing residence permit. [užsienyje]”.

However, according to the service, only citizens with documents authorizing them to “permanent residence abroad” can leave Belarus.

The service added that “a temporary residence permit … is not a reason to go abroad.”

Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus with an iron fist since 1994, restricted citizens’ ability to travel abroad in December 2020. The Minsk regime argued that the move was threatened by a coronavirus pandemic.

Departure from the country by land is allowed only once every six months.

‘TO. The Lukashenko regime severely restricted Belarusians’ right to travel, stating that certain reasons were not a sufficient reason to leave Belarus, “said Valer Kavalevsky, an advisor to Sviatlan Cichanouskaya, the Belarusian opposition leader who had gone to Lithuania.

“However, the constitution does not establish any conditions,” he added, condemning the measure as an “absolute violation of the law.”

Air travel is not prohibited, but flights have been severely restricted following the closure of European airspace by Belarusian planes due to the forced landing of a passenger ship.

Lukashenko sparked international outrage by ordering on May 23 to send a fighter jet to intercept a Ryanair plane flying from Athens to Vilnius by opposition blogger Raman Pratasevic and his friend, a Russian citizen studying in Vilnius, S. Sapega. When the plane landed in Minsk, they were both detained.

Lithuania, a neighbor of Belarus, offered to issue six-month visas to Belarusians persecuted by the regime.