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According to data from the state-owned company Oro Navigacija, the number of daily flights in Lithuanian airspace increased by as much as 28 percent last week. Last Monday, 273 planes crossed the country’s airspace, up from 350 on Sunday. Company officials say Sunday’s growth is impressive in both a pandemic and geopolitical context.
During the three days of the weekend, the flights of Air Baltic (+ 13 flights), Ural Airlines (+10 flights), Aeroflot (+ 9 flights), LOT (+ 8 flights) increased quite significantly. A large list of airlines whose flights grew by only a few: Oro Navigacijos specialists also see this as a good sign for Lithuanian airspace.
Photo by Vidmantas Balkūnas / 15min photo / Oro Navigacija state company
After Minsk landed a plane flying from Athens to Vilnius on May 23 and arrested opposition leader Roman Protasevich and his friend Sofia Sapega, western states imposed sanctions on Belarus. Some of them are related to aviation: EU operators are advised to avoid Belarusian airspace, and some countries have banned the Belarusian airline Belavia from crossing their airspace.
Although the increase in flights could be based on geopolitics, there is no single explanation for such changes, 15 minutes said Lina Nuobarienė, head of communications for the state-owned company.
Company photo / Lina Nuobarienė
“The number of Air Baltic flights to western countries has been increasing and the airline is starting to operate more actively here. Flights to the southern regions of Europe and Turkey were made in the airspace of the Republic of Lithuania; evasion of Belarusian airspace has already contributed here. Ural Airlines increased the number of flights between St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad, and Aeroflot increased the number of flights between Moscow and Western Europe. In both cases, the ban on Belarusian airspace has nothing to do with it ”, commented the interlocutor.
According to the company’s communications manager, the LOT increase, on the contrary, is completely determined by the bans related to Belarusian airspace: eastbound flights from or to Warsaw Airport from directions such as Tokyo, Seoul or Moscow have started to cross Lithuania. air space.
Photo by Erik Ovcharenko / 15 Minute Photo / Polish Airlines
Despite the positive developments, there is a visible and significant trend towards losses due to Belarusian airspace, such as KLM (21 fewer flights), Singapore Airlines (15 fewer flights).
“These flights have completely disappeared from our airspace due to the evasion of Belarusian airspace. However, Lufthansa and Finnair, which are important to our airspace, have remained stable,” said L. Nuobarienė.
However, air navigation analysts attribute the changes more to the beginning of summer and more active travel, than to the closure of Belarusian airspace, which has caused an obvious increase, but also very significant legal losses. A broader and clearer analysis will only be possible after a while.
Justas Nugaras, dean of the Aviation Institute of Vilnius University of Technology, also agrees with this assessment. “Yes, the aviation sector is starting the summer season, vaccines and the opening of resorts, other locations, I think, are more related to that than other elements,” he guessed.
Airlines are still testing new routes
Evaluating the results of the past week, J. Nugaras 15 minutes he commented that it is too early to measure the potential gains or losses for Lithuania due to the evasion of Belarusian airspace.
“After the isolation of Belarus, the flows have not stabilized yet and the airlines are only trying to see which routes are better, which flows are less busy or if there are no traffic jams. At present, the entire territory has to be redistributed and it will take two to three weeks for the routes to be established ”, predicted the aviation specialist.
Photo by Vilnius Tech / VILNIUS TECH AGAI dean dr. Justas Nugaras
He also believes that this should not offset the financial pressure on airlines, although costs will increase slightly. For passengers, on average, about 10-15 minutes. Route lengthening shouldn’t be a hassle either, as time fluctuations in aviation are not uncommon and sometimes occur naturally, due to adverse winds or similar factors.
“It just came to our notice then. We have calculated several routes, a flight to Belarus can add up to several hundred euros, which is not very significant at all costs. Of course, airlines strive to make it as efficient as possible to fly, and it was more efficient for them to fly through the territory of Belarus, ”said J. Nugaras.
He points out that on long routes such adjustments will not be significant since the change is very small. Belarus will feel more overwhelmed when flying short distances, for example when flying from Kaunas or Vilnius airports to Ukraine or in some directions to the south.
In general, these routes are not very long and the flight to Belarus is direct; not much room for longer arc planning.
Flights to Belarus are restricted to 10 countries
Neighboring countries, Latvia and Poland, should also win or lose in this situation.
However, unlike the case of Lithuania, these countries also have a national airline, and such changes will have a direct impact on them. Representatives for Air Baltic said last week that additional fuel costs caused by flight adjustments could cost them up to 200,000. per month.
Photo from Airbaltic.com / Airbaltic Airplane
Air Baltic also said that the recommendation to avoid Belarusian airspace would affect in one way or another 29 or 8.1% of all flights. In principle, it would also indirectly affect Latvian taxpayers, as the government owns 96.14% of the company’s shares.
Belarusian airline Belavia was banned last week from flying into the airspace of several European countries and landing at their airports. Last week, Belavia acknowledged that European countries were being forced to cut staff by cutting flights to Belarus.
Riga airport has reported that the temporary closure of air services between Latvia and Belarus could result in the loss of some 20,000 passengers. income in euros per month. Last week, Lithuanian airports told the BNS news agency that the bans could result in the loss of approximately 700,000. per year that Belavia would have paid.
Belarusian aircraft are restricted by ten European countries: the United Kingdom, the Baltic States, Poland, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden, France and Cyprus. It is true that Sweden has not indicated that it would ban Belavia airlines from flying over the country.
Rokas Lukoševičius / 15min photo / Aircraft surveillance at Vilnius airport
The changes have already affected Belarus, which loses part of its revenue from air traffic taxes on a daily basis.
According to the aviation analysis firm OAG John Grant, cited by the BBC, Belarus earns up to € 70,000 a day from foreign ocean liners flying into its airspace. euros.
Belarusian airspace is operated by British Airlines, Wizz Air, Lufthansa, KLM, Longtail aviation and other companies.
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