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“It just came to our attention then. (…) In all counties, the smallest drop is 22 percent and the largest is 50 percent. These are staggering numbers. The highest percentage of positive tests is 4 percent. It means that we are now in control of the epidemic and that it is successfully withdrawing from us, “data analyst Vaidotas Zemlys-Balevičius told Delfi Rytas.
But, according to the scientist, shooting champagne is too early. Lithuania’s numbers are not low yet.
“We still have 500, when we have 100-200, then it can be said that we have already settled. And for now, let’s rejoice in the fall. If we fall like this, it will all end here very soon, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
The Indian variety is worrying
However, the data analyst warns that the Indian variety can spoil the mood.
“The first (British) data on its danger came out last week. Unfortunately, it is more dangerous than the British variety. (…) Its reproduction rate is 1.6. (…) And the effectiveness of the vaccines is lower. According to preliminary data, it is 30 percent after a single dose. In comparison, the British version is 50 percent. This is a significant drop, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
According to the guest of the program, the question arises of what will happen when the Indian variety arrives in Lithuania.
“And it has already been registered in Latvia. The weather in our summer is better than in Great Britain, and I hope the effect of summer will prevail in our country. Regarding the vaccination process, we were able to look at the first dose with the British strain, now, unfortunately, we have to look at the second dose. The virus continues to give us surprises and it cannot be said that it is all over, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
The domain analyst noted that there are not yet a large number of people vaccinated with the second dose in Lithuania. Its share in counties is about 20 percent.
“And if we look at the first dose, there are already municipalities where 70 percent. (Municipality of Neringa), in Alytus county – 40 percent, the city of Kaunas exceeded 40 percent, ”said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
Speaking of the Indian variety, according to the scientist, it is more of a problem for state institutions than for people. They need to think about how to deal with it.
“Neither variety will be terrible for us if we have a small number of cases,” said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
According to the data analyst, since summer is approaching, although there will be an increase in the number of cases due to the spread of the new variety, it should not be large.
“There is an increase in Britain, there are measures to deal with it. Accelerated additional vaccination. Britain has not vaccinated those under 40 years old. People, now it accelerates vaccination with the second dose. Because with two doses, the efficacy decrease in the presence of the Indian variety it is insignificant ”, said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
Offers to discuss virus management strategy in principle
According to the scientist, if such a miraculous 40% drop persists, we will enter scenario B in mid-June.
“I think if we go to scenario A, then there is no reason to quarantine people with scenario A,” said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
According to the scientist, now is the time for the government to reconsider the strategy.
“Maybe it is better for us to go on a regimen like Australia does, where he has a very strict quarantine week and then goes free again. Then it would be the same way. If we do the same when we allow the virus to rot, and it continues to burn, and therefore there must be some restrictions, then another option, ”said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
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