Analysts: Lukashenko and Putin are united by the desire to find “enemies” in the West

Lukashenko visited Putin shortly after the Minsk regime ordered a fighter jet to take control of a Ryanair passenger jet from Athens to Vilnius that had Roman Protasevičius and his friend Sofia Sapega. Both were arrested.

The West was outraged, urging EU-based carriers to avoid Belarusian airspace and vowing to impose new sanctions on Lukashenko and his regime officials. Economic constraints, which can span many sectors and, incidentally, cause millions of losses to EU countries, including Lithuania.

Undoubtedly, Lukashenko spoke to Putin about the situation: the meeting lasted up to five hours.

“It just came to our notice then. But it won’t be. And the public speeches are what you might expect. Russia’s support for Belarus was expressed, which was also shown in cash.” 15 minutes said Dovilė Jakniūnaitė, a political scientist at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University.

United reproaches the West

That money is 500 million. Loan in USD to Minsk. True, the funds are not new – this is the second 1.5 billion. the disbursement of the dollar loan that Moscow promised last year. Your Belarus will receive in June.

Putin also hinted at the creation of a state of the Union: “We are definitely moving in that direction, that work is already yielding concrete results for our citizens.”

Lukashenko: There is an attempt to bring the situation to the level of last August. It’s clear what those Western friends want from us.

Of course, support for the EU’s call not to fly over Belarus has also been made public, with Russia vowing to help Belarusian citizens return home from Europe and fearing that Russia may systematically refuse to allow European airlines to land on their airports if this avoids Belarusian airspace.

The main leitmotif, after all, is how is the West to change. Mr Lukashenko said that the EU “wants to cause us problems” and added that it was supposed to show Putin “who these people were” – that is, information about activists who had learned from the West, including Protasevich, which he had brought in a suitcase. .

“There is an attempt to bring the situation to the level of last August.” It is clear what those Western friends want from us, “said the authoritarian Belarusian president.

He was also outraged by the ban on Belavia flights landing at EU airports: “What is Belavia doing here? They really overworked. What for?”

The situation has changed

Contract criticism The lips of Putin and Lukashenko, who have been meeting more and more since last year’s protests, are not new. Both leaders pursue their own goals.

“Lukashenko cannot go anywhere else, only to the Kremlin. And it is very important for Putin to keep present-day Belarus and his regime within his sphere of influence.

It is no coincidence that before leaving for Russia, Lukashenko hinted that there is now an attack on Belarus, but Russia is another target. Understand, both sides sit in the same pot, they have a common opponent who needs to be repelled unanimously.

Of course, this does not reflect Lukashenko’s speech a good year ago, when he did not always agree with Putin, at least on a rhetorical level. ” 15 minutes said Linas Kojala, director of the Center for Eastern European Studies in Vilnius.

The bilateral relations against the protests last year were quite strange. Minsk tried to reduce its dependence on Russian energy resources, invited high-ranking guests from the United States and detained several dozen Russian contractors from the Wagner group.

But since August, the situation has changed. According to observers, the Russian strategists who saw the unrest in Belarus probably realized that it was no longer possible to play; after all, the neighboring country had long been very important to the Kremlin as a buffer.

The Sochi meeting was the fourth meeting between Putin and Lukashenko since the start of the protests in Belarus. As mentioned, Moscow is already bailing out the Minsk regime with loans and is now vehemently defending Belarus’s decision to take over the Ryanair plane.

What scenario is Moscow not considering?

There is no shortage of ideas that Lukashenko is well aware that there are a number of paranoid officials working in the Kremlin, and that is why he assures that future attempts to overthrow Putin are being rehearsed in Belarus.

Lukashenko’s argument is tempting: Russia and Belarus have a common enemy in the West. He tells Putin: either support me or Belarus loses to the West, “said Dmitry Trenin, director of the Carnegie Center in Moscow.

And since such deliberations are actually heard in the Kremlin, Lukashenko gains some leeway, says Belarusian expert Dzianis Meliancou.

“If Russia did not support the regime, Belarus certainly would not; I mean not only the landing of the plane, but also the repression in the country.

L. Kojala: Russia cannot even consider a scenario in which Belarus deviates from the pro-Russian geopolitical vector.

Even when Belarus behaves arrogantly and there seems to be no reason for Russia to support the regime, Russia still proves that it is a reliable ally. Lukashenko is inspired by that, “said Meliancou.

Is there a limit to Russian support? According to L. Kojala, “Russia cannot even consider a scenario in which Belarus deviates from the pro-Russian geopolitical vector.”

“If that happened, there would be no other example from another country showing that Russia in general can still maintain something in its sphere of influence.” Therefore, Moscow will really do its best and it must be recognized that it has a lot of influence: economic, socio-cultural and security structures. ” 15 minutes stated L. Kojala.

The picture is not much better

It is true that Russian policy analyst Tatiana Stanovaya believes that the incident with the Ryanair plane may be unpleasant for Russia.

“One is when you develop integration with a country that others respect. Another is when you support a regime that nobody recognizes as legitimate, ”Stanovaya said.

However, according to D. Jakniūnaitė, the West can hardly do anything, for example, clearly show the Kremlin that the issues of Belarus and Russia are separated in Brussels or Washington.

“It will be tried to say it, but Russia considers that Belarus is its space, with or without Lukashenko.” For Moscow, this space is very important as a buffer, especially since military integration has already taken place there. In Russia’s strategic plans, Belarus is Russian territory. ” 15 minutes said the analyst.

L. Kojala, in turn, recalled that in international politics, the status and image of Russia are not much better than those of Belarus.

“Russia is a sanctioned state with many problems, which has been criticized for human rights abuses and attacks on its own opposition figures.

But, yes, Russia cannot imagine its security without Belarus as a completely friendly and trouble-free state, “said the political scientist.

Whats Next? According to D. Jakniūnaitė, it is necessary to wait for V. Putin’s meeting with the President of the United States, Joe Biden, which should take place on June 16:

He is planning constitutional meetings, referenda, the process is likely to be like this. But it’s slimy because more and more people need to shut down. That’s what’s going to happen. “