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“If we look at the 7-day average of new COVID-19 cases, the change is even more impressive, from 1200 (05.10) to 495 (05.28). The number of hospitalized patients also dropped significantly from 1,120 to 774. The number of COVID-19 patients treated in resuscitation and emergency departments is also decreasing. However, its decline began much earlier. That is, the peak was reached (145 patients) on April 28. and has since dropped to 93 today.
The percentage of positive diagnostic tests is 2.8 percent. We haven’t seen such a number since 2020. September. final.
And it is this indicator that is one of the most important that the management of the epidemic shows. What could really be different is the number of deaths from COVID-19. It is clear that it is not as terrible as it was in December-January, but its decline “stalled” in March. and it doesn’t go down much.
The figures of the last days seem to show something more optimistic ”, writes the professor on Facebook.
In the post, the professor also mentions several scenarios that were named a month ago.
“More than a month ago, three possible scenarios for the development of the epidemic were announced: more severe / pessimistic, medium and mild / optimistic. The end of April showed that we were moving towards a more pessimistic scenario (for example, 1,598 new cases of COVID-19 were detected on April 28) and the possibility of reaching the limit of 2,500-3,000 cases per day cannot be ruled out. But we see that that did not happen. Not only that, we began to bend the “bullish” scenario, whereby we only had to see the numbers that we see now after a couple of weeks. Such a sudden drop in cases cannot be surprising, ”writes M. Stankūnas.
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