Instead of a garden, a search for a Christmas tree – such May jokes do not surprise scientists

Last year it snowed in mid-May

“It just came to our knowledge then. It looks like Christmas. I promised to plant a garden, but I’m probably going to decorate a Christmas tree.” On Monday morning, a resident of the Šiauliai district joked sadly at several photos of his snowy garden.

Monday morning, part of Lithuania again covered with snow. The Highway Administration even warned drivers that in Šiauliai county and Raseiniai district, due to snow, difficult traffic conditions have been created. The air temperature ranged between 1 and 6 degrees.

Justinas Kilpis, a junior researcher and PhD student in the Department of Hydrology and Climatology at the Institute of Geosciences at Vilnius University, was not surprised by this natural surprise, although her parents also ruined her plans to work in the garden.

According to him, for now, although summer is already around the corner, anything can happen. Both last winter and the previous one we were not spoiled, but in May it snowed.

Last year it snowed badly even later, on May 12, although on the eve the weather rejoiced summer temperatures above 20 degrees. The thickness of the snow cover that covered Samogitia last year reached 4 cm of snow, and on Monday in Šiauliai, even 5-6 cm.

According to the interlocutor, although for some of them the weather can be an unpleasant surprise, it should not be called a natural disaster. It occurs when the cold enters after the flowering of fruit trees and the appearance of active vegetation. The biggest disaster is the cold, not the snow, because it melts quickly at that moment.

Frosts are still possible in May, they are less common in June. Hail often occurs in late spring or summer, but although ice falls from the sky, it is a different phenomenon than warming snow.

Although it is cold before summer, spring is early.

The long fall, the snowless Christmas, or the first serious snowfall just after the New Year hasn’t been surprising for a long time. But for the second year in a row, he is fasting in May. Perhaps the seasons have changed a bit, so a slow-paced spring should come as no surprise.

According to J. Kilpis, the seasons have really changed, but they have not progressed, they have been shortened and lengthened.

“The shortest winter is the shortest, summer is a bit longer. Spring and fall are still the same, but winter starts later and ends earlier. 15 minutes explained the climatologist. – In the 20th century, March was a winter month, April was an intense collapse. Now March is the month of spring.

The fact that we have snow in May is not related to the fact that the seasons have changed. Statistics show that winters get warmer and springs warmer. But we have extreme weather fluctuations.

This year is an excellent example. The end of February was warmer and at the beginning of March a great frost came. There was a positive anomaly at the end of the month. The highest temperature rose to 19 degrees. So in a month it ranged from -15 to +19 “.

It was similar the month before. In mid-February, a cold of 20 degrees continued to press in Lithuania, and in recent days the columns of thermometers in southern Lithuania rose to 15 degrees.

In April, the column of the thermometer went up and down again. The beginning of the month was cold, the middle, quite warm, at the end it gets cold again. Thus, the cold beginning of May does not mean, according to the interlocutor, that the middle or end of May is not hot.

The average temperature “hides” such extreme fluctuations, which is why eventually the month becomes at least a little cooler or warmer than usual. But it has been observed that due to climate change, the averages are slowly increasing.

Extreme temperature fluctuations and other phenomena have a greater positive or negative effect on people, on their well-being. According to J. Kilpis, when it is unusually hot or cold, people pay more attention to well-being; sometimes, it spoils the mood or causes discomfort. Extreme events also affect agriculture and forests, for example trees break due to wet snow.

This makes planning activities that depend on the weather more difficult. The climatologist’s parents traditionally take a week-long “gardening vacation” in early May, but this time the snow ruined them.

Long-term forecasts have changed in two weeks

Nature presents similar surprises not only in Lithuania. The southern cyclone, which passed from Sunday night to Monday, affected the entire Baltic Sea region. In Siberia, on the other hand, thermal anomalies are now being observed.

Is it an irreversible result of climate change or are similar jokes about nature repeated over time?

According to J. Kilpis, extreme events have always existed and will be in the future. The climate depends at a given moment on the circulation of the atmosphere of a particular day or week, which makes one or the other climate come from the Mediterranean Sea or the Arctic Ocean.

Climate change is a change in multi-year averages. It shows that the weather is warming up. “Winters in Lithuania are the ones that are changing the most. But that does not mean that we will not have cold weather, snow. Winter weather is likely to dominate in winter, such as November. But there will also be cold weeks. The same goes for springs. There will be more springs with warm weather. Occasionally we will have cases like the ones we have now. “

It is true that the fact that we receive snow in Lithuania in May is determined by the geographical location of our country. We are relatively close to the Arctic Circle. Arctic air masses will continue to occur, so even as the weather warms, we will not celebrate cold weather.

Although the summer calendar is still a month away, many are curious what to expect when it starts.

“The long-term forecasts are changing so much this year that I don’t want to forecast any more. Two weeks ago, it seemed like the summer would be the same, now everything has changed – laughed J. Kilpys.” This year, even globally, the circulation atmospheric is very volatile, so long-term forecasts are not long-term. “

In his words, based on current forecasts, May appears to be a bit colder than usual and summer is expected to approach the multi-year norm.

“Two weeks ago he showed that summer would be warm, even hot. Maybe it will change again. There is no need to depend on the forecasts, it is better to follow the daily or three-day forecasts, “said the climatologist and suggested that rather different clothes should be prepared. He himself admitted that he had already put gloves in the closet, but unexpectedly it got cold again.

Monthly records – +34 ° C and -6.8 ° C

What long-term forecasts – thankless work, shows the portal at the end of February 15 minutes conversation with J.Kilpis.

Then the heat wave that hit Lithuania made people tired of the pandemic dream of the beginning of true spring. The climatologist warned that winter could still show its nails; in fact, it happened.

But he predicted that April would be slightly warmer than the previous year and that May temperatures would return to normal.

According to data from the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service, in May there were several extreme events.

The lowest air temperature this month (-6.8 ° C) was recorded in 1965. May 5 In Varėna, the highest (+34 ° C and +32.6 ° C) – on May 28, only in different years (1892 in Druskininkai and 1958 in Varėna).

Also, on the same day, only in 1962. In Vilnius, hail with an ice diameter of 30 to 50 mm fell on the city. 1975 May 11 In Taurage, glaciers with a diameter of 70 mm fell from the sky. 1968 May 7 Even hail the size of a chicken egg fell on Kupiškis.

1969 May 15 At Jurbarkas, during the rupture, the wind speed exceeded 30 m / s, in 1984. May 26 At Pakruojis – 35 m / s.

1981 May 29 whirlwind devastated Širvintas, wind speed reached ~ 70 m / s. 1985 May 10 the whirlwind flew northwest of Nemenčinė (Vilnius district).

1985 May 31 In Aunuvėnai (Kelmė district), 115.2 mm of precipitation fell in two hours (monthly rate ~ 50 mm). Or 1978 May 12 The last snow melt date was recorded in Laukuva (Šilalė district).