Latest review: the biggest stress point is the Vilnius region

The biggest point of tension is the Vilnius region, where the number of occupied resuscitation beds reaches 2020. December figure; Bed occupancy is also increasing in the Kaunas region; at the same time, more than 80% of all new cases in Lithuania were detected in both regions.

Lithuania has been dominated by the B.1.1.7 virus strain for some time and, more precisely, its line, which is found only in Lithuania, was first observed in Vilnius county, but has now spread throughout the country and represents more than 50% of all B.1.1.7 genomes scanned.

Summary of key indicators

1) The number of cases has stopped a bit – In two months, the 7-day average has doubled and is now around 1,100 and 14 days. the morbidity rate ranges from approximately 540 cases to 100,000. population.

two) The acceleration of the pandemic was approximately + 5% last week, so the growth of cases has slowed. Evaluating the entire growth period from the beginning of March, during the spring wave it did not reach even half the growth rate we had in autumn, when the number of cases doubled each week in late October – early November.

3) The number of resuscitation beds now occupied in the Vilnius and Alytus COVID-19 group reaches the level at the end of December, in the Kaunas and Marijampolė group, in mid-November.

Bed occupancy has increased in all regions in the last 7 days, but the absolute figures are currently small compared to the Vilnius or Kaunas regions. Hospital employment growth continues to be proportional to the number of new cases detected, and was the highest in the Vilnius and Kaunas regions: more than 80% of all new COVID-19 cases detected in Lithuania.

4) The death situation is stable – Approximately 10% more people die in Lithuania in three weeks than in 2019 and 2020. This number is equal to the number of people who die from COVID-19 infection. The age structure of people dying with COVID-19 remains largely unchanged, with ~ 90% of deaths in people 60 years and older.

Vaccination Summary

1) Vaccination rates remain stable. Last week, about a third of the vaccine was given for the second dose of the vaccine and a quarter for the 65 and older age group. The remaining vaccines were given to people with other priorities, such as those with chronic diseases and other important functions.

two) More than 30% of the population of Lithuania already have immunity. Eastern Lithuania leads in terms of the number of sick people. There are only isolated elderly people in Vilnius county with less than 7% of the population, while the situation is better in the north and west of Lithuania. The number of vaccinated people is fairly evenly distributed.

Sequence review

1) B.1.1.7 The SARS-CoV-2 virus strain currently dominates in all counties of Lithuania, that we already have a local “winner”, B.1.1.7.LTU, a line of the British variety found only in Lithuania, which was first registered in Vilnius county, but then began to dominate in all of Lithuania. We also see that during the spring wave, the number of cases of the B.1.177.60 strain, which prevailed during the fall wave, remained stable, and the increase was driven by B.1.1.7.