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US defense officials estimate that Moscow sent about 4,000 to the heavily militarized border with Ukraine. additional troops.
On Friday, the Russian army announced that it would hold military exercises near the border with Ukraine, which will be attended by 15,000. Soldiers, electronic means of combat, air defense units will be used.
The Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), which is gathering information on the forces being transferred, ensures that soldiers from Russia’s 76th Airborne Division will head to Crimea. According to various observers, this division participated in the annexation of Crimea, hostilities in Donbass in 2014, carried out aggression against Sakartvel.
According to CIT, T-72B3 tanks are being transported from Jurga to Siberia to Ukraine.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, speaking about the redeployment, assured that “Russia is not a threat to anyone.”
Ukrainian military intelligence has accused Russia of preparing to “expand military involvement” in the separatist-controlled regions of Donetsk and Lugansk.
In recent days, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has identified hundreds of violations of the ceasefire. The most recent ceasefire took place in July 2020.
Kiev reported on April 6 that Russian-backed separatists had killed two Ukrainian soldiers. In early March, four Ukrainian soldiers died.
The West confirmed its support for Kiev
Peskov warned that any deployment of NATO forces in Ukraine “would undoubtedly lead to further tensions”, and Russia would have to “take additional security measures”.
“Scanpix” / AP nuotr./Joe Bidenas
Faced with mounting tensions, new US President Joe Biden called Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky for the first time and reaffirmed US support for “Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russian aggression in Donbass and Crimea.”
European Union (EU) diplomatic chief Josep Borrell on Sunday pledged the bloc’s “unwavering” support for Kiev and expressed deep concern about the movement of Russian forces outside Ukraine.
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (UK) Boris Johnson announced on Twitter that he had spoken with Zelensky and assured London of his unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Vladimir Zelensky told Johnson that Russia’s actions endangered Ukraine, NATO members and Europe as a whole. He called for tougher sanctions against Russia and inviting Ukraine to the NATO membership action plan, reports Radio Free Europe.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also expressed his support for Ukraine.
Waiting for the conflict to escalate?
Several pro-Russian media outlets were shut down in Ukraine in February, as were sanctions against Viktor Medvedchuk, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. carnegie.ru writes Maxim Samorukov.
AFP / „Scanpix“ nuotr./Viktoras Medvedčiukas
The analyst notes that V. Zelensky has recently distanced himself from the Ukrainian oligarchs, thus showing his determination to carry out pro-Western reforms. He announced the formation of a “Crimean Platform” to keep the international community’s attention on the occupied peninsula, presented a new security strategy reaffirming his ambition to join NATO, focusing on countering Russia’s aggression.
According to Samorukov, a new military escalation with Ukraine would bring dubious benefits to Russia. Opinion polls show that Russian society is tired of adventurism in foreign policy and “will not welcome a new military invasion of Ukraine before the parliamentary elections scheduled for September.”
According to Samorukov, the leaders of the separatist republics would like to expand the borders, but Moscow controls them too much for them to act independently.
Russia’s leadership is unlikely to run the full risk of losing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline due to unsecured growth in popularity in Russia and especially Donbass, the analyst writes.
Peter Dickinson, an analyst at the Atlantic Council, also draws attention to Russia’s upcoming parliamentary elections and the declining ratings of Putin and the ruling party Russia.
Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Vladimir Putin
“A military adventure in neighboring Ukraine could conveniently divert attention and revive Putin’s personal popularity. It is also concerning that the Kremlin-controlled Russian media have recently stepped up their propaganda attack on Ukraine, accusing Ukrainian officials of preparing for the attack, “Dickinson wrote.
Just because Russia is slowly mobilizing on the border with Ukraine and in Crimea doesn’t mean anything will happen anytime soon, writes Mikhail Kofman, an analyst at the New American Security Center.
“However, if they have planned offensive operations, they are likely to take place in mid to late April,” he writes.
According to Kofman, the fighting in Donbass is likely to intensify and the concentration of forces in Crimea is worrying. However, the analyst does not believe that the Russian attack is inevitable, rather it is a show of force.
“The motive for the current mobilization is to show Kiev and Washington that Russia is determined to respond by force to any military attempt to change the status quo Donbase.
“The transfer of forces proudly confirms that Russia is hitting its weapons, not considering a sudden attack,” writes Samorukov. carnegie.ru.
Russia occupied Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014. Since the spring of that year, Kiev forces in eastern Ukraine have been fighting Russian-backed separatists. The conflict has already claimed more than 13 thousand. lives.
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