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According to them, the members of the Seimas will not only continue to work in difficult pandemic conditions, but will also inevitably continue to explain the disagreements over the Istanbul Convention and the Association Law. Experts also note that scheduled disagreements between opposition factions will not be avoided during the spring session when the issue of the opposition leader returns to the political agenda.
Heated debate on the Association Law and the Istanbul Convention will continue
Professor Mindaugas Jurkynas from the Vytautas Magnus University (VMU) Faculty of Political Science and Diplomacy agrees that disagreements between coalition partners may continue to intensify during the spring session when cultural and moral issues are discussed.
“We still do not know exactly what will happen in the spring session, if the ratification of the Istanbul Convention, if the association law will be passed or if the pandemic will decrease and the general psychological climate in society will improve, due to job losses, closures physical and movement restrictions. They are emotionally and psychologically tired, tense, “said M. Jurkynas.
Therefore, the political scientist believes that the laws passed in the spring session should be such that they do not increase polarization and resistance.
However, M. Jurkynas emphasizes that, despite the fact that moral issues can cause tensions between rulers who declare different values, the political scientist is convinced that the ruling coalition should not pose a threat at the moment.
“If the liberal parties, especially the Freedom Faction, did not achieve some of their goals and could not tell their constituents that they had contributed to the fulfillment of their promises, I would not rule out the possibility of leaving the ruling coalition at the end of the Seimas. variant is possible, “said M. Jurkynas.
“But in the first part of the mandate, I would not really expect such movements, because even the implementation of the agenda, the implementation of the measures of the Government program takes some time. Furthermore, it should not be forgotten that the pull of power is very strong and all parties seek power. So, as long as this attraction as a benefit is greater than some exit costs, there will be no withdrawal, “he added.
At the time, Virgis Valentinavičius, an associate professor at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), believes that the issue of a pandemic and the changes in laws necessary for handling the pandemic will be discussed at the spring session of the Seimas. However, the observer is convinced that the recent heated debate on the Istanbul Convention and the Association Law will continue to provoke controversy and will not leave the parliamentary agenda.
“Those debates that are brewing now about the Istanbul Convention and the association will probably not be off the agenda, and there will certainly be people in the Seimas who will try to make that debate, if it doesn’t make sense, at least exacerbate it, because conflicts and frictions. This issue will not go away, “said V. Valentinavičius.
“They may not pass the laws themselves, they will postpone the fall, but the discussion will probably take place. However, it could have seen more danger for the ruling coalition to conflict with each other on these issues a month ago than now.” added.
The observer is convinced that Ramūnas Karbauskis, the leader of the “peasants”, and other fierce critics of the Istanbul Convention and the Association Law are not so damaging as, on the contrary, they encourage the ruling coalition to find a compromise. .
“Ramūnas Karbauskis, with his cynical populist aggression on these issues, greatly helps the coalition to reflect on the importance of maintaining unity, keeping the solution of these issues at a constructive level of seeking compromise,” he shared his opinion.
“From the way they say the most conservative and more liberal people of TS-LKD, I think that the chances of agreeing with each other are much higher, because they see what will happen if they do not agree. Then people like R. Karbauskis ”, he added.
Opposition disagreements – scheduled
V. Valentinavičius is also convinced that disagreements between the opposition factions will continue in the spring session. The observer says that the issue of the opposition leader should return to the political agenda, thus fueling disagreements between the “peasants” and the Social Democrats.
“So far, it is very clear that R. Karbauskis claims that his leading party is dominant in the opposition, and if successful, he would actually be the de facto leader of the opposition.” So there really is something to think about from the Social Democrats. On the one hand, for the social democrats in this existential struggle, where it was the “peasants” who stole their voters during the elections, any movement that strengthened the “peasants”, even giving the opposition leader a position to the “peasants”. “It’s useless,” he said.
The observer points out that if the Social Democrats are serious about their future, they should look for ways to strengthen themselves without reaching out to the “peasants.”
“We just realized that the disagreements were still being scheduled. “It is very difficult to imagine R. Karbauskis walking away from his goal of embracing all left-wing voters and monopolizing the left-wing political spectrum,” he said.
At that time, evaluating the future of former Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis in the “peasant” faction, V. Valentinavičius believes that there will be no major intrigues or changes in the career of this politician in the near future.
“It is very difficult for me to imagine S. Skvernel achieving any results if he were not with the ‘peasants’. You cannot create your own party. I think R. Karbauskis says very clearly to S. Skvernelis: you will have a future with me only if you listen to me. And R. Karbauskis is ordering everything to put S. Skvernelis back “in his place”, – said V. Valentinavičius.
At that time, Vytautas University professor Magnus M. Jurkynas took a slightly different position, stating that the future of S. Skvernelis in the “peasant” faction was still uncertain. He argues that Skvernel’s decision is likely to depend largely on whether he becomes the leader of the opposition.
“If Skvernel becomes the leader of the opposition, I think he will work with the peasant group, even if it is not partisan. If that position of leader of the opposition does not materialize, I think he can think of a more active political activity outside the limitations of the group, thinking precisely of his political attraction as a sufficiently popular politician for a certain sector of the electorate. I do not rule out that possibility, “he said.
In conclusion, the political scientist emphasizes that in any case, there will surely be disagreements in the opposition, because, according to him, the opposition parties compete not only with the rulers, but also with each other.
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